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College Football Picks: SEC predictions against the spread for Week 5

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Sep 26, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) during the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday October 3, 2015
  • Time: 7PM Eastern
  • Location: Gainesville, FL
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Spread: Ole Miss -7.5
  • Over/Under Total: 51.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are traveling to Gainesville for the first time since upsetting Florida 31-30 in 2008. After the game, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow issued “The Promise” and led the Gators on a ten-game winning streak to the national title. Many things have changed between then and now, but this year’s matchup could also feature a future national champ.

The best bet is Ole Miss, who has jumped to No. 3 in the AP Top 25 on the strength of a 4-0 start fueled by the Rebels’ 43-37 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago. After Ole Miss upset the Tide on the road, it appeared they wouldn’t face another major test until a Nov. 14 date with LSU, but Florida’s 4-0 start to the season makes this a must-see matchup, and a potential upset.

Last week, Florida pulled off a dramatic comeback to beat Tennessee 28-27. Quarterback Will Grier led the Gators on two fourth quarter touchdown drives to erase a 13-point deficit, and hooked up with Antonio Callaway on the 63-yard game-winner on 4th-and-14. Grier threw for 283 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and Callaway led the Gators with 112 receiving yards. Florida also got 102 rushing yards from running back Kelvin Taylor in the team’s most complete offensive performance of the season to date.

Coupled with a defense that ranks among the nation’s top 25 in total defense (298.3 total yards per game) and rushing defense (105 rushing yards per game), has recorded 14 sacks and forced seven turnovers, Florida is a very dangerous team. Plus, the Rebels must travel to The Swamp.

That said, this is a game Ole Miss should win. The Rebels have elite talent on both sides of the football, and quarterback Chad Kelly, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and company are capable of scoring 30 points or more, but the biggest edge is on the other side of the ball, where the Landshark defense ranks among the most opportunistic in the nation with 10 turnovers.

Expect Ole Miss to win by a touchdown, but take the home underdog to cover.

Next: Eastern Michigan at LSU

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