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College Football Picks: SEC predictions against the spread for Week 5

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Sep 26, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies receiver Christian Kirk (3) celebrates his overtime touchdown with Josh Reynolds (11) against the Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium.Texas A&M won 28-21 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday October 3, 2015
  • Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
  • Location: College Station, TX
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Spread: Texas A&M -7
  • Over/Under Total: 62.5

The third meeting featuring two members of the Top 25 will be in College Station, where the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies host the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs. Last season, the 48-31 loss to Mississippi State in Starkville was the beginning of the end for Texas A&M. After a 5-0 start propelled the Aggies to a No. 6 ranking, A&M lost three in a row and five of their final seven regular season games. The Bulldogs rode the momentum of their victory to an eventual No. 1 ranking before stumbling at the end of the regular season.

This week’s matchup has a similar feel, and could be a turning point for both teams.

Mississippi State is 3-1, with their only loss coming 21-19 to LSU when a furious fourth quarter comeback came up just short. As the Tigers continue to roll, that loss looks better and better. Last week, the Bulldogs beat Auburn 17-9, and though Auburn has struggled mightily in 2015, it was an important victory for State and a great sign moving forward – particularly for the defense, which held the Tigers without a touchdown for the first time with Gus Malzahn calling plays.

However, for State to win Saturday in College Station, they will need a much better performance from the offense. The Bulldogs gained just 326 total yards against Auburn, and were virtually nonexistent in the rushing game with 56 yards on 21 carries. Mississippi State has lived and died with the pass so far this season, and with quarterback Dak Prescott (1,069 passing yards, 7 TD, 0 INT) and wide receivers De’Runnya Wilson (201 yards, 2 TD), Fred Ross (219 yards) and Fred Brown (173 yards), that seems like a worthy plan, but that puts a lot of pressure on an offensive line that has surrendered five sacks.

As shown by their 17 sacks through four games, Texas A&M will provide the toughest challenge yet for Prescott and the Bulldogs’ passing game. Defensive end Myles Garrett ranks second in the nation with 6.5 sacks already this season and fellow pass rusher Daeshon Hall has five. If the State O-Line can keep Garrett and Hall away from Prescott, the Bulldogs have a chance to win, otherwise, this one could get ugly. Expect the Aggies to win, and to cover.

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