College Football Odds: Four best bets for Week 6

Sep 5, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder looks on early during a game against the South Dakota Coyotes at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

TCU (-10) at Kansas State

When: Saturday at 7:30 ET

This game reminds me of the Auburn-Kansas State game last September. At the time Auburn had a high-tempo offense and were over a touchdown favorite on the road. The over/under was high and indicated a shootout. Instead Bill Snyder’s team took the air out of the ball and slowed the game down. Auburn ended up winning 20-14 but it came nowhere close to going over the total.

I see a similar situation here. Snyder knows that his team can’t match the athleticism of TCU so they will look to keep possession of the ball and keep Trevone Boykin off the field. Taking an under in a TCU conference game might be risky but I feel this is a spot to do it. The Horned Frog have scored over 50 points in their first two Big 12 games but I think Kansas State’s defense will play tough in front of a home crowd at night.

Kansas State’s offense might have trouble putting up points. Quarterbacks Joe Hubener and Kody Cook aren’t fully healthy and TCU’s depleted defense is starting to get back to full strength. I think Kansas State can keep this game close, and if they do then it will be a lower scoring game.

Pick: Under 63.5

Next: Miami at Florida State