SEC Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 7

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Oct 10, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) runs for a 87 yard touchdown against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the third quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated South Carolina 45-24. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday October 17, 2015
  • Time: 7PM Eastern
  • Location: Baton Rouge, LA
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Spread: LSU -9.5
  • Over/Under Total: 47.5

There are only three undefeated teams left in the SEC, and two of them meet Saturday night in Baton Rouge. LSU opened as a 7.5-point favorite to knock off Florida, and early betting favored the Gators, but the Tigers have shot up to a 9.5-point favorite after the news that Florida starting quarterback Will Grier has been suspended following a positive test for PEDs.

LSU has been very impressive this season, and running back Leonard Fournette has been arguably the nation’s best player through the first half of the campaign. Fournette leads the nation with 1,022 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in just five games, and is the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. However, the star sophomore has yet to face a defense as tough as Florida’s.

The Gators have held opponents to 296.3 total yards, and ranks second in the SEC with 99.2 rushing yards allowed per contest. The big-play Florida defense has also recorded 21 sacks and forced 13 turnovers, which is important because LSU has worked hard to improve its passing game over the last two weeks, likely knowing that quarterback Brandon Harris will need to make a play with his arm to win.

Harris has struggled with consistency in the passing game this season, but had his best game a week ago against South Carolina when he threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns on 18-for-28 passing. The sophomore yet to throw an interception this season, but has been sacked seven times.

Florida will miss Grier, but Treon Harris has talent and experience (he beat Grier for the backup job and eventually started six games in 2014 and started in Week 1 this year, after all), so the Gators shouldn’t face a huge drop in offensive production. Expect Florida to run the football early and often with Kelvin Taylor and to keep the game close. LSU should win, but take the Gators to cover.

Next: Missouri at Georgia