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Big Ten Predictions: Week 9 picks against the spread

By Barry Leonard Jr.

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Oct 24, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs for a gain against the Maryland Terrapins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday, October 31, 2015
  • Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
  • Location: West Lafayette, IN
  • TV Channel: ESPN2
  • Spread: Penn State -5.5
  • Over/Under Total:

Penn State enters this week fresh off a win over Maryland that saw the Nittany Lions fail to cover. Favored by six, the Nittany Lions were taken down to the end by the Terrapins and won by a single point. Being favored is nothing new to Penn State, as this marks the eighth time this season.

Quarterback Christian Hackenberg had a game last week in which he threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns. He was finally getting the ball downfield and letting his talented receivers make plays. Chris Godwin has become Hackenberg’s go-to target and he’s enjoying a breakout season.

The star of Penn State’s offense for much of this year has been freshman running back Saquon Barkley. He had little room to run last week against Maryland, but is always just one move away from breaking a big play.

Defense has been what’s saved the Nittany Lions in a few games this year when the offense was struggling. However, the defense has struggled over the last two weeks and just gave up over 400 yards of offense to a bad Maryland team. The ground game has been difficult for the Nittany Lions to stop, as they gave up 315 yards to Ohio State and 241 to the Terrapins.

Despite the recent struggles, the Nittany Lions are very strong on defense. They did force five Maryland turnovers and have one of the best defensive lines in the nation.

Illinois upset the Nittany Lions last season due in large part to the fact that Hackenberg had one of the worst performances of his collegiate career.

The Illini have surprised some people this season with four wins to this point, but are currently in the middle of a two-game losing streak. Last week they hung with Wisconsin for a while, but couldn’t pull of the upset in the end, even with the Badgers playing with a backup quarterback.

Quarterback Wes Lunt has been a bright spot for the Illini, but he’s had just one main target this season. Geronimo Allison has 48 receptions and is second in the Big Ten with 700 receiving yards. The next closest on the team is Desmond Cain with 26. The rushing attack has been strong with the duo of Josh Ferguson and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, though Ferguson has missed the last two games with an injury.

The Illini have been riddled by injury this season, especially on offense, and will be overmatched in this one.

Penn State has played down to opponents this year, and that will likely happen in the first half of this game. However, in the end, the home crowd will help and the Nittany Lion offense, behind Hackenberg and Barkley, will be too much. It won’t look like it early, but expect Penn State to beat the spread.

Next: Rutgers at Wisconsin

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