College Football Odds: SEC Week 9 picks against the spread

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Oct 24, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) scrambles up the middles against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Date: Saturday October 31, 2015
Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
Location: Lexington, KY
TV Channel: SEC Network
Spread: Tennessee -9
Over/Under Total: 56.5

The hard part is over for Tennessee – or so it seems.

Following a 19-14 loss to Alabama, which was the fourth loss of the season in which the Vols held a fourth quarter lead, Tennessee should have relatively smooth sailing the rest of the season. It starts this weekend against Kentucky with South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri (in Columbia) and Vanderbilt to follow.

Head coach Butch Jones hasn’t been able to lead his team to a signature victory in his two-plus seasons in Knoxville, but he’s done a decent job of beating the teams he’s supposed to (the Vols are 11-4 as a favorite under Jones). There isn’t an easier second half schedule in the SEC, and there’s no way Tennessee shouldn’t go 5-0 over the next five weeks.

Of course, we’re more interested as to whether or not Tennessee will go 1-0 against the spread this week. As a nine-point favorite in Lexington, it’s a tall order.

Kentucky still has explosive playmakers on offense – most notably running back Boom Williams, who ran for 95 yards in last week’s 42-16 loss to Mississippi State and has gained at least 80 yards on the ground in five of the six games he’s played this season. The Wildcats racked up 423 yards of offense and had 30 first downs in the loss to the Bulldogs, but turned the football over three times and quarterback Patrick Towles was benched in the fourth quarter after completing 23 of 42 passes for 218 yards with two interceptions.

The biggest issue, however, was a dreadful performance by the Kentucky defense, which allowed 586 total yards and had no answer for quarterback Dak Prescott.

Actually, neither Tennessee nor Kentucky has been good overall on defense this season – the Vols have allowed 411.1 yards of offense per game this season while Kentucky has surrendered 405.0 – but the units are currently trending in opposite directions. Tennessee held Alabama in check most of the game and held the Crimson Tide to a season low 19 points. The Vols also had five sacks and an interception against the Tide.

Because the Vols can run the football consistently and quarterback Josh Dobbs has a similar dual-threat skill set to Prescott, expect Tennessee to have a big day, and to start their should-be 5-0 run with a cover.

Next: 30 Best College Football Quarterbacks of All-Time

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