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College Football Odds: SEC Week 11 picks against the spread

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Nov 7, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry (2) runs the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the LSU Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday November 14, 2015
  • Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
  • Location: Starkville, MS
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Spread: Alabama -7.5
  • Over/Under Total: 51.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off their most important win of the season – a 30-16 victory over then-No. 2 LSU in which the Tide dominated the line of scrimmage. The victory was even sweeter following Ole Miss’ loss to Arkansas because Alabama once again controls its destiny in the SEC West.

The Crimson Tide have one of the nation’s stingiest rush defenses – Alabama ranks second nationally with an average of 79.7 rushing yards allowed per game – and held LSU running back Leonard Fournette to just 31 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. However, Mississippi State doesn’t rely heavily on the running game – and especially its running backs.

Quarterback Dak Prescott (2,351 passing yards, 18 TD, 1 INT) leads the Bulldogs with 431 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and is the only State player with more than 220 rushing yards or three rushing TDs.

Expect Prescott and wide receivers De’Runnya Wilson, Fred Ross and Fred Brown to challenge the Alabama secondary, which has allowed 189.6 passing yards per game. However, expect the Alabama offensive line and running back Derrick Henry (1,254 rushing yards, 17 TD) to perform well against a Mississippi State defense that has allowed 369.3 total yards of offense per contest.

Simply put, Alabama is a better team than Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide are more talented at nearly every position – aside from quarterback. If Prescott puts together a historic, nearly flawless game, the Bulldogs can win. But the odds of that just aren’t very good. Expect it to be close, but for the Crimson Tide to win.

Next: Kentucky at Vanderbilt

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