Would Big 12 expansion spell an end to the MWC as we know it?
Big 12 expansion seems likely to happen in the near future, and the Mountain West Conference might be ripe for the picking.
It’s been everywhere in the news and on the lips of college football followers the last couple of weeks…
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The long-standing joke about the Big 12 conference consisting of only 10 teams may soon be coming to an end. That would leave us with only the Big Ten having issues with mathematics, but that’s a column for another day.
If the Big 12 does move ahead with expansion to twelve or even fourteen teams, it could spell big trouble for a neighboring Group of Five conference – the Mountain West.
The only program who could make the jump to the Big 12 without upsetting the balance in any league would be BYU. Anyone see the Cougars taking that leap?
I’ll wait for the crickets to subside.
When the ACC and Big Ten opened their books to new membership a number of years ago, it was the sturdy ol’ Big East who took the brunt of the damage. Between some of their stronger teams moving into the Power-5 conferences, and others moving into vacated slots in other more profitable leagues, the Big East was left a shambles and forced to reinvent itself.
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In football, a number of the former Big East teams and some other wayward misfits formed the American Athletic Conference, which has blossomed into one of the better football leagues in the nation.
The Mountain West underwent a similar transformation in 1999 when it was formed from the broken pieces of the Western Athletic Conference, who ended up discontinuing football as a sport. The MWC has already provided some strong programs to other Power-5 leagues (Utah, TCU) and has had one defector to the dwindling ranks of the independent teams (BYU).
And it now looks like they could be headed in the direction of another reorganization.
Jake Trotter of ESPN.com uncovered documents that contained correspondence between leaders at Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and Colorado State to the competition committee within the Big 12; namely West Virginia president Gordon Gee, Oklahoma president David Boren and Baylor president Kenneth Starr.
With four of those five programs residing in the aforementioned AAC, why – you may ask – am I writing about the potential demise of the Mountain West?
Anything that hits financially sound leagues such as the American would hit the Mountain West with much more ferocity.
The chances of the Big 12 admitting Colorado State are slim, at best. Mike Bobo has a long way to go before his team is ready to lock horns with the likes of TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas on a weekly basis.
That leaves the other four AAC programs (and some possibilities that haven’t been mentioned yet) chomping at the bit and doing their seductive dance of greenbacks and corporate sponsorships for the suits of the Big 12.
It’s a domino effect, and the American is too strong a conference to take loss of membership lying down. Of the other Group of Five leagues, the MAC is too tightly wound, while Conference USA and the Sun Belt don’t offer much in the way of appealing programs to suit the needs of the AAC.
Even if only two teams out of those four interested parties were to jump over to the Big 12, the American would immediately seek some strong replacements. If in the unlikely event that the Big 12 moved immediately to 14 teams and took all four AAC applicants…chaos in the Rockies would ensue.
Some natural picks to move from MWC to AAC? How about Air Force joining Navy in the American, or Boise State, or San Diego State…all potentially huge losses for the Mountain West. The American could very easily woo any of those programs to leave the MWC.
The Mountain West could also be faced with another problem if too many quality teams leave, and that would be programs taking the path of least resistance and dropping back to the FCS, as Sun Belt member Idaho announced they would be doing after the 2017 season.
Hawaii and Wyoming are two Mountain West programs who have had struggles on the field as well as financially in the deep-pocket era of the Power-5, and if the Mountain West were seen as damaged goods, they too may seek refuge in Division I-AA play.
It’s a no-win situation for a league who has fought for some recognition and relevance since taking root in 1999. Nothing left but the battle for the Fremont Cannon if things keep going in the same direction.
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It seems that Big 12 expansion is likely…how soon is the big unknown. That expansion is bound to have severely adverse reactions somewhere, and my money is on the Mountain West.