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College Football: Predicting the records of every 2016 first-year coach

By Michael Collins

CORAL GABLES, FL - DECEMBER 04: New University of Miami Hurricanes head coach Mark Richt makes the 'U' sign after he was introduced at a press conference at the school on December 4, 2015 in Coral Gables, Florida. (Photo by Joe Skipper/Getty Images)
CORAL GABLES, FL - DECEMBER 04: New University of Miami Hurricanes head coach Mark Richt makes the 'U' sign after he was introduced at a press conference at the school on December 4, 2015 in Coral Gables, Florida. (Photo by Joe Skipper/Getty Images) /
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Nov 28, 2015; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Maryland Terrapins running back Brandon Ross (45) runs for an 80 yard touchdown during the second half at High Points Solutions Stadium. Maryland defeated Rutgers 46-41. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 28, 2015; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Maryland Terrapins running back Brandon Ross (45) runs for an 80 yard touchdown during the second half at High Points Solutions Stadium. Maryland defeated Rutgers 46-41. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports /

Big Ten:

Lovie Smith – Illinois (5-7 overall, 2-6 Big Ten 2015)

Career Head Coaching Record: 89-87 (NFL)
Last Stop: Head Coach – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: 7-5, 4-4 Big Ten

Illinois made the right pick for a change. Just having Lovie Smith there as the head coach adds at least two wins to last year’s record, possibly even more depending on how things pan out in the Big Ten.

Despite having no head coaching experience in the college game, Smith brings a lot to the table and will have this program turned into a possible conference contender within a few years.

The Illini won’t quite be ready to topple the likes of Michigan or Wisconsin yet, but they’ll definitely be a competitive team. Predicted loss to Nebraska could really go either way, but that early in the season there may still be some work to be done for Illinois.

D.J. Durkin – Maryland (3-9 overall, 1-7 Big Ten in 2015)

Career Head Coaching Record: 1-0 (Interim at Florida)
Last Stop: Defensive Coordinator – Michigan
Prediction: 4-8, 2-6 Big Ten

Maryland, who has had some of the worst injury luck imaginable over the past few seasons, was really grasping at straws when they tapped former Michigan DC D.J. Durkin as head coach. That shows how desperate this program is to get things on the winning track.

It’s really difficult to say if the defensive turnaround at Michigan had more to do with Jim Harbaugh or Durkin, but given his track record of successful defensive work at Stanford and Florida prior to his one year engagement in Ann Arbor, it’s hard to argue that Durkin wasn’t a big part of it.

While Durkin may fix some of the the vast defensive deficiencies the Terrapins had last season, they still need to find a way to score, having put up only 296 points all season in 2015. This will be a struggle and the Terps may take a step back before moving forward (if at all).

Chris Ash – Rutgers (4-8 overall, 1-7 Big Ten in 2015)

Career Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Last Stop: Co-Defensive Coordinator – Ohio State
Prediction: 2-10, 0-8 Big Ten

Really not much to see here. A first-time head coach paired up with one of the most undisciplined and inconsistent teams in the Big Ten is a witch’s brew of disappointment for the Scarlet Knights.

Ash has some solid work on his resume as a defensive coach, but that was working with some of the top talent in the country at Ohio State. Prior to that, his Arkansas Razorbacks defense in 2013 was one of the worst in the nation.

Greg Schiano isn’t walking through that door, and that’s about the only thing that could fix the Scarlet Knights right now.

Next: C-USA

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