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Air Force Football: 3 reasons why Falcons will win MWC

By Tanner Sperry

Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Air Force Falcons running back Timothy McVey (33) runs the ball against California Golden Bears linebacker Hardy Nickerson (47) in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Air Force Falcons running back Timothy McVey (33) runs the ball against California Golden Bears linebacker Hardy Nickerson (47) in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 20, 2015; Boise, ID, USA; Air Force Falcons wide receiver Jalen Robinette (9) catches a pass from quarterback Karson Roberts (16) (not seen) during the first half versus the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 20, 2015; Boise, ID, USA; Air Force Falcons wide receiver Jalen Robinette (9) catches a pass from quarterback Karson Roberts (16) (not seen) during the first half versus the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports /

Air Force benefits from a pretty manageable schedule this season. ESPN’s FPI favors the Falcons in nine games in the regular season. We’ll just analyze the in-conference schedule.

An early test at Utah State will be an important game overall, but especially in conference. The Aggies will contend for the top-tier of the conference too, which means a loss would create some ground to make up in the standings.

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A road game at Wyoming won’t be a guaranteed win, especially since the Cowboys have a strong running game themselves, but Air Force should be strong enough to pull it off.

The next week the Falcons face New Mexico on neutral ground. The Lobos beat the Falcons late last season, and New Mexico also pulled off a win in Boise, so they’re not a team to take lightly, although they’re likely to take a step back in 2016.

Hawaii will travel to Colorado Springs in a very winnable game, and then Fresno State will host the Falcons. This is also a winnable game, as the Bulldogs had a very down year, but are expected to get better.

Getting Colorado State at home will be a huge plus. The regular season ends with a trip to a dangerous San Jose State team, and then the Falcons will host Boise State. Hosting Boise State is the key to the schedule, as the Falcons already have a two-game winning streak over the Broncos.

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Even if the Falcons lose a game in conference, a win over Boise State would almost surely give them the division. It’s unlikely, but isn’t impossible, for the Broncos to lose two in-conference games (they lost a surprising three last year), so if Air Force does lose two, a win here still is likely enough to play in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

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