USC Football: Is Sam Darnold a sure-fire franchise quarterback?

Matty Breisch

Nov 19, 2016; Pasadena, CA, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) sets up to pass the football in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In a recent piece for NFL.com, Bucky Brooks declared that there are no sure-fire franchise QBs in the 2018 class. Could USC’s Sam Darnold prove him wrong?

Franchise quarterbacks are hard to find.

Having one could very well be the difference between playing in January and taking an early vacation. The only problem? There simply are not enough franchise caliber QBs.

Every year a number of young signal-callers enter the NFL with dreams of becoming the next great superstar, yet year after year numerous teams find themselves picking toward the top of the NFL Draft dreaming of selecting a player to turn their franchise around.

Players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have led their respective teams to countless playoff berths over their decade spanning careers and returned home as Super Bowl champions.

There is no definitive definition of what exactly makes up a franchise quarterback, but it is fairly well accepted that at any given time there are only a dozen or so franchise quarterbacks in the NFL.

When a team invests a first-round draft pick in a quarterback, they want a player who can lead their team for years to come, and one whom they can build their squad, staff and playbook around. However, based on recent data, there are teams who would be happy just to get a consistent starter as a return on their investment.

Since 2012, there have been 18 QBs taken in the first round alone and 21 in the first 60 picks. These players have had very different careers, careers that can help to set up a basis for us to compare future prospects to.

While teams like the Seahawks and the Cowboys have found starting quarterbacks in the 3rd day of the NFL draft, these are the exception not the rule. If a team truly wants to optimize their chances of drafting a starting QB, they will typically be looking for one in the first round.

There are currently four quarterbacks that are getting early consideration to be first round caliber players. I’m going to evaluate Sam Darnold, USC’s redshirt sophomore signal-caller, against his peers, past and present, to see if he truly deserves to be a team’s future starting quarterback.

Meet the Player

Sam Darnold is a 19-year-old redshirt sophomore from Capistrano Beach, Calif. Growing up Darnold played basketball and football, before find his calling as a quarterback in his sophomore season of high school.

After missing the majority of his junior season with a foot injury, Sam led his team to the CIF-Southern Section Southwest Division championship game, while passing for over 3,000 yards, rushing for over 800 and scoring 52 touchdowns.

Sam’s efforts earned him a four-star rating from Rivals.com, and scholarship offers from nearly a dozen Division 1 college football programs including Oregon, Duke and Utah. Darnold’s recruitment would eventually end with him accepting an offer to his dream school, USC.

After watching Sam throw at a workout at USC’s campus then-head coach Steve Sarkisian knew that Sam had something special and needed him as a Trojan.

Darnold arrived in Los Angeles in the fall of 2015 and joined a crowded quarterback room that also housed future 3rd round pick Cody Kessler. He would go on to redshirt during Kessler’s final season in LA, which gave him the opportunity to learn new head coach Clay Helton’s playbook after Steve Sarkisian was fired midway through the 2015 season.

Entering the 2016 season USC was without a incumbent starter at QB. Instead of naming a player out the gate, Clay Helton allowed his players to compete for the open position, pitting Darnold against redshirt sophomore Max Browne. While Sam did show flashes of star potential, the team instead chose to start Browne, the former No. 1 rated QB in the nation, whom was recruited to USC by Helton himself.

However, Browne’s tenure as USC’s starting quarterback would be short lived. After going 1-2, including a 52-6 loss to No. 1-ranked Alabama, Helton knew that the team needed a spark to change his team’s fortune and hoped that Sam Darnold could help to turn things around.

And oh how they turned.

Sam led USC to a 9-1 record over the 10 games he started while throwing for 3,086 yards and 31 touchdowns. Darnold’s performances were nothing short of brilliant, and ultimately turned a 1-3 team into the No. 9 team in the nation. USC was selected to play in the 2017 Rose Bowl against Penn State, a game that would be considered by many to be an instant classic.

Darnold lead his team to a nail biting 52-49 victory, going 33-of-53 for 453 yards and was ultimately awarded the MVP of the Rose Bowl.

While the 2017 season will be crucial for Darnold’s continued development, teams are already clamoring over his potential at the next level.

Measurables

Sam Darnold is listed at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds.

When put into historical context, this is the prototypical size for a franchise quarterback.

Of the 21 quarterbacks taken in the top 60 picks of the NFL since 2012, only two have been taller than 6-foot-5 and three that stood 6-foot-2 or shorter. Similarly, 80% of the quarterbacks taken weighed between 215lbs and 235lbs, with only one player under 215 pounds and three players over 235 pounds.

While these numbers have no real effect on a player’s ability to play at the next level, they are indicative as to what teams are looking for in a franchise caliber quarterback.

Short players are typically undervalued due to the potential troubles of seeing over an offensive line, and the perceived heightened risk of injury while taking constant pressure from 240-plus pound linebackers and rush ends.

This is also why light quarterbacks typically are required to add weight in order to play in the NFL. Slightly built players like Robert Griffin III have had to spend noticeable chunks of NFL careers on injured reserve after their bodies couldn’t take the pressures of NFL life. Adding additional weight can negatively impact a player’s dynamic play-making abilities, but the best ability is availability for most NFL franchises.

But there are limits.

Having a quarterback who is too heavy could also negatively impact their ability to shine in the NFL. As defenders continue to get faster and stronger, quarterbacks are continuously finding themselves under more and more pressure on any given down.

Having escapability is becoming more and more essential to playing quarterback at a high level, and finding a quarterback who can keep a play alive with his legs could be the difference between a 50-yard touchdown and a sack. While some quarterbacks like Cam Newton can play at 245 pounds and maintain their athletic advantage, others may find themselves a sitting duck in the pocket.

JaMarcus Russell, the former No. 1 overall pick out of LSU, was drafted at a weight of 265 pounds, but ultimately ballooned up to over 300 pounds before being cut by the Raiders after only three seasons with the team. Many viewed his weight gain as a sign of his lack of commitment to football and his game suffered as a result. Russell is now considered one of the biggest busts of all time, and is a cautionary tale for any team selecting a quarterback at the top of the draft.

When put into historical context, it is abundantly clear that Darnold has the ideal size desired by NFL teams, with a solid core and wide base that allowed him to play his entire redshirt sophomore season without sustaining any major injuries.

College Production

One of the biggest concerns teams will have when scouting Sam Darnold is his lack of experience at the college level.

More from USC Trojans

Sam was able to put up incredibly impressive numbers in his lone season as the Trojan’s quarterback. He completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for over 3,000 yards and over 30 touchdowns, while maintaining a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and did so in only 10 games.

However, he did so under unique circumstances.

As previously stated, Darnold was not originally selected to be the Trojan’s starting quarterback, and was instead slated to back up former No. 1 overall prospect Max Browne. When head coach Clay Helton decided to change quarterbacks after the third game of the season he completely changed the dynamics of USC’s offense.

Unlike Browne, Darnold is a dual-threat quarterback who could attack teams with his feet as well as his arm. Teams who had prepared the off-season for a pro style USC offense instead found themselves facing off against a dynamic assault.

While Sam Darnold’s numbers are impressive for a first-year quarterback, it will be incredibly telling how he does after teams have an off-season to prepare for his game.

If Darnold starts every game next season, including a bowl game, he will have start only 23 games over the course of his college career. Of the 21 quarterbacks selected in the top 60 picks since 2012, only three have started 23 or less games in college: Mitch Trubisky (13), Ryan Tannehill (20) and Carson Wentz (23). While having additional game footage would be ideal for the player evaluation process, it doesn’t appear that having a limited number of college starts doesn’t effects a player’s draft evaluation.

Even though the Trojan’s lost their primary receiving target in JuJu Smith-Schuster, the majority of their starters are returning for Darnold’s redshirt sophomore season. If the Trojans are able to repeat the success they experienced with Sam under center next season, not only will they be in serious contention to make the college football playoffs, but they could also add another No. 1 overall draft pick to their programs already storied history.

Scouting Report

According to Danial Jeremiah, NFL scouts are already raving about Sam Darnold’s rare skill set, and it not surprising why.

In addition to having the ideal physique that NFL teams desire in a starting quarterback, Darnold also has a very strong arm.

On this play, USC running-back Justin Davis attempts to set up a flee flicker, but tosses an errant ball back to Darnold. While some quarterbacks would simply fall on the ball to prevent a turnover, Sam instead scoops up the ball and precedes to throw a 40 yard pass on the run with a defender in his face.

While this pass doesn’t result in a touchdown, it does show Darnold’s pure arm talent. When evaluating his game film it is not uncommon to see Sam launch balls 30, 40 even 50 yards in the air when he is able to set his feet.

In addition to his arm strength, Darnold is also incredibly poised in the pocket.

With 1:27 left in the Rose Bowl, his team down by 7, Sam Darnold stands unflinching in the pocket. When he finds his first read covered, instead of checking the ball down or taking off and attempting to run for the first, Darnold instead continues to read through his progressions and connects with his slot receiver for a game tying 27-yard touchdown.

According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold maintained a 101 passer rating while under pressure, good for sixth-best in the nation. Additionally, Sam was only sacked on six percent of the snaps he was pressured on. This shows that Darnold not only has great pocket presence and good vision, but also good escapeability.

On this play against Utah, Darnold reads that his receiver, who is set to run a bubble screen, has three defenders around him. Because there is typically only one passing option on a bubble screen, instead of falling into a bad play that could result in a 3rd and goal, Sam instead decided to shift his eyes downfield and score the ball himself.

After making his way around the left tackle, Sam spotted a hole between the hash marks and committed to scoring the touchdown himself. After being taken down from behind, the ball comes loose, but Darnold has the vision and foresight to scramble for the ball, and ensure his team ends up with six points.

Final Thoughts

After evaluating his stats, mesurables, and tape, it becomes abundantly clear why Sam Darnold is considered by many to be a first round NFL-caliber quarterback.

Darnold simply does everything a coach wants out of a starting quarterback.

He is an incredibly accurate passer. Not only did Sam rack up over 3000 passing yards in his redshirt freshman season, but he also did it while completing 67.2 percent of his passes. If his accuracy remains consistent next season he will be the 6th most accurate quarterback of the 21 taken in the top 60 picks since 2012.

Sam also makes great decisions. Of the 366 passes attempted by Darnold in 2016 only nine were intercepted. That’s less than three picks for every 100 passes. He also was only sacked six times of the course of the season on 428 total dropbacks.

And maybe most importantly Darnold has shown great maturity at the tender age of 19. Sam never spoke out about redshirting during his first season in LA, and when his head coach made the decision to start Browne over him before the 2016 season began, Sam embarrassed the decision and took it in stride. There are professional players who don’t maintain that level of maturity when placed in a similar situation, and he should be commended for it.

Sam Darnold should without a doubt be drafted in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. While there is no way of telling whether he will become an all pro or if he will find his bust in Canton some day, he is without a doubt a player who teams can build their roster around.

Of the quarterbacks selected in the top 60 picks since 2012 not a single one has won the Super Bowl as a starting quarterback. Even players like Derek Carr and Andrew Luck, who have gone to the pro bowl five times in eight combine season have yet to lead their teams to the Super Bowl.

Simply put while a quarterback in incredibly important if a team want to be a consistent contender for many years, they cannot win games alone. While a true franchise quarterback can mask certain deficiencies on a roster, they still need a quality supporting cast to be successful.

Next: Comparing PSU's Saquon Barkley to recent 1st-round RBs

In 2016, Sam Darnold took a USC teams that was stuck in a cycle of mediocrity and turned them into a top 5 team. If he continues to progress in his second season with the Trojans, USC may find itself contending for another national championship behind the arm of a future franchise quarterback.

Matty Breisch