Entering his sixth season in Tucson, Rich Rodriguez faces heat after a losing season in 2016? Here’s why Rodriguez should be on the hot seat this year.
In their recent Hot Seat Rankings, CBS Sports listed Arizona Wildcats head coach Rich Rodriguez as one of five coaches under intense pressure. After four straight winning seasons in Arizona, the Wildcats regressed to 3-9 in 2016.
It was the first losing season for the Wildcats under Rodriguez. Arizona went bowling every year between 2012 and 2015, including a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2014. But last year an overtime loss to Washington snowballed into an eight-game losing streak. The Wildcats ended the year with a Territorial Cup win over rival Arizona State, but it was a small reward as the season still ended earlier than usual.
One cannot live on past glories forever. Rodriguez is unquestionably a good football coach, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But are the Wildcats trending upward or downward in a tough Pac-12 South? Though it seems drastic, it is worth wondering whether Arizona can right the ship this season. Here are five reasons why Rodriguez certainly belongs on the hot seat in 2017.
5. The defense can’t keep up with Pac-12 offenses
While fans eventually soured on Mike Stoops, he at least fielded decent defenses in Tucson. The same cannot be said about the units Rich Rodriguez has allowed on the field. Though Stoops was finally fired midway through the 2011 season, his last Arizona team finished with a point differential of -4.6 points per game.
That one season of regression was enough to cost Stoops his job. Last year under Rodriguez, the Wildcats allowed 38.3 points while scoring just 24.8 per game. A large reason for that is the fact that Arizona has allowed opponents to carve them up through the air. The team has also been susceptible to coughing up big yards to opposing run games.
Quarterbacks have also been highly efficient against the Wildcats. Other than an increasingly aberrant 2012 season, opponents have averaged nearly 280 yards per game. They have also featured an average efficiency rating north of 140. Rodriguez has never been a defensive mastermind, of course. But his failure to produce even mediocre defenses has put Arizona in an unfortunate position and is one reason why Rodriguez belongs on the hot seat.
4. Rodriguez hasn’t been able to lure in higher-caliber recruits
Top talent hasn’t bought into the myth of Rich Rodriguez. The recent case of Braxton Burmeister is instructive. Burmeister had been committed to Arizona before his senior season of high school. Then, less than three weeks before National Signing Day, Burmeister decided to play for Oregon instead. It was a major loss of a dual-threat quarterback in the mold of past Rodriguez passers.
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Rodriguez was brought in to lure more talent to Tucson, not to lose those players to other Pac-12 schools. However, the fact that Rodriguez has recruited little better than Mike Stoops before him is another reason why he is justifiably on the hot seat in 2017. The Wildcats have ranked ninth in the 12-team conference each of the past three years in terms of recruiting rankings.
Only once has one of Rodriguez’s recruiting classes ranked higher than 40th nationally according to 247Sports. The Wildcats continue to lose out in recruiting to their state rival in Tempe. Overall, the talent gap has been soundly demonstrated by results on the field over the past few years. Unless some lesser-heralded players emerge as hidden gems, things do not look much brighter in the near future for Arizona.
3. Fans are not attending Arizona games under Rodriguez
What should really have the Wildcats athletic department worried is the fact that fans aren’t coming to watch this team. Looking at the last few years under Mike Stoops, the team drew over 52,000 to Arizona Stadium in 2009 and 2010. Even during the tumultuous 2011 campaign where Stoops was fired midseason, Arizona still drew nearly 49,000 fans.
Rodriguez-led teams at Arizona have never topped 52,000 in average attendance. In three out of the past five years, the Wildcats have averaged fewer fans than they did in 2011. Even the stated numbers seemed overblown last season, as Arizona Stadium regularly looked empty on game days. While part of that can be attributed to scheduling teams like Grambling State and Hawaii, the trend continued into Pac-12 play.
Ultimately, Rodriguez must shoulder plenty of blame for the lack of fans in the seats. Wildcats fans aren’t entirely fickle, as their willingness to watch the 2011 implosion illustrates. Rodriguez’s teams have consistently drawn lower crowds than Arizona did under Stoops. That alone bumps up the temperature another notch or two on the hot seat under Rodriguez.
2. The offense continues to struggle without any clear vision
Rich Rodriguez made his name as an offensive savant. He helped mastermind Tulane’s undefeated season in 1998. When he took over at his alma mater in 2001, West Virginia quickly became one of the most exciting teams to watch in the country. The Wildcats have certainly been able to score on occasion. But that has not translated into victories.
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The big issue for Arizona is the lack of a clear offensive vision. Rodriguez’s spread offense begins with a strong rushing attack. That has been relatively stable in Tucson over the past five years. But without competent passing, defenses are able to key off and stack the box to prevent big plays on the ground. At times the Wildcats have had an aerial attack, but it is often deemphasized to Arizona’s detriment.
Part of that has come down to recruiting, and part to injuries to players like quarterback Anu Solomon. Without any consistent identity, it’s no wonder that fans have been turned off by this incarnation of the Wildcats. At least under Stoops they knew what they could expect from week to week. The same cannot necessarily be said about Rodriguez’s Arizona teams a hot seat-worthy offense.
1. Successes have been few and far between under Rodriguez
In 2014, Rodriguez’s third season at the helm in Tucson, Arizona had a charmed season. The Wildcats went undefeated in September and then advanced to 5-0 after upsetting Oregon in Autzen Stadium. Though they did not remain undefeated, Arizona nevertheless won the Pac-12 South. They lost the rematch against the Ducks, but their 10-3 regular season finish was enough to earn a date with Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl where they lost to the Broncos.
That was the only bowl game that Arizona has lost under Rodriguez. Of course, the three wins have come in lower-tier contests. They needed a wild comeback to beat Nevada in the 2012 New Mexico Bowl. The next season they trounced a mediocre Boston College team in the AdvoCare Bowl. Then, in their follow-up to the Boise State loss, Arizona took down the hometown Lobos for a second New Mexico Bowl win.
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2014 was also the only time that Arizona has reached 10 wins during Rodriguez’s tenure. Since that game, the Wildcats have regressed from 10-4 to 7-6 to 3-9 in the standings. And with the recent rise of the Pac-12’s other talented South teams, it will be even tougher to right the ship. If anything, the lack of notable victories is the ultimate reason why Rodriguez is on the hot seat heading into 2017.