The SEC East could end up a battle of the “Big Three”—Florida, Georgia and Tennessee—although there could be a few darkhorse contenders with the schedule playing a role in the outcome of the division.
Depending on the source, most pundits see either Florida or Georgia as the favorite in the East. Fans might remember Tennessee being the overwhelming favorite last year and that didn’t go over so well.
Tennessee is breaking in a new quarterback this season and the 2017 schedule is brutal. The Vols must play Alabama and LSU from the West and Florida on the road in the third game of the season.
Georgia has almost all the defense returning from a strong 2016 unit and two talented senior running backs in the fold, too. Florida is the returning East division champ with some questions but plenty of talent.
The “other guys”
Expectations are low for Missouri and Vanderbilt. Derek Mason is bringing the program back to respectability with wins against Georgia and Tennessee last season. That said, we are still talking about Vanderbilt, a school with a better track record in basketball than football. Missouri isn’t impressive, at least on paper.
Then, there are potential darkhorse candidates in Kentucky and South Carolina, teams not likely to win the division but capable of doing so.
What are the games that will determine which team wins the division? Sure, it’s easy to pick out cross-division games that might affect the outcome. Tennessee’s road contest to Tuscaloosa is one such example. Will Florida take advantage of facing LSU at home, where the team was undefeated last season? Georgia travels to Jordan-Hare in facing a talented Auburn team near the end of the season. However, what are the pure, strictly SEC East games that will have the biggest impact on who wins the division?
Let’s take a closer look.
No. 5 – Florida at Kentucky (Sept. 23)
Among the SEC East darkhorse candidates, Kentucky sits at the top. Florida, having won the East the last two years, is the favorite until other teams prove otherwise.
Kentucky returns 16 starters from last season’s squad that finished with a 7-5 overall record. While Kentucky lost Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams, but returns Benny Snell. Snell set the Kentucky freshman rushing record (1,091) and should be one of the top running backs in the SEC this season.
Admittedly, Kentucky has not defeated Florida in 30 years. However, the Wildcats have a relatively easy non-conference schedule (except for Louisville) and play Ole Miss and Mississippi State from the SEC West. They also get Florida at home. The Gators were just 2-3 on the road last season. Kentucky is Florida’s first true road game of the season.
Florida has plenty of talent on offense, but a major question mark at quarterback. They lost a lot of talent on defense as well. They’ll be good, but how good remains to be seen.
No. 4 – South Carolina at Tennessee (Oct. 14)
South Carolina isn’t considered a serious contender in the East. Instead the Gamecocks might be considered a darkhorse behind Kentucky. Tennessee isn’t considered one of the favorites, but the team is near the top.
The Vols lost its best defensive player (Derek Barnett) and offensive player (Joshua Dobbs), as well as multiple playmakers (Alvin Kamara, Josh Malone, and Jalen Hurd).
South Carolina has one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks in Jake Bentley and running back Rico Dowdle had a breakout game last season against Tennessee. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is a dynamic playmaker
South Carolina beat Tennessee last season, 24-21. The Gamecocks’ defense was probably the biggest reason the Gamecocks earned the win. South Carolina held Tennessee to less than 300 total yards. For perspective, the Vols average 443.7 yards per game.
Tennessee’s loss came during a brutal stretch of the schedule—an overtime loss to Texas A&M and a home blowout against Alabama preceded by close wins against Georgia and Florida. Tennessee faces a difficult stretch again during the middle of the season, but the South Carolina game comes near the beginning, not the end. Also, Tennessee has home advantage this season.
South Carolina has probably the worst offensive line in the conference, so this could end up being a defensive showdown.
No. 3 – Tennessee at Florida (Sept. 16)
Tennessee exorcised some demons with a win in 2016. Prior to the 38-28 win, the Vols hadn’t defeated the Gators since 2004. The last time the Vols beat the Gators in Gainesville was in 2003. Florida finished 2016 with a perfect 5-0 home record. In fact, the team’s only home loss under head coach Jim McElwain was against Florida State in 2015.
Both teams lost a lot of talent. More interestingly, Florida lost a depth of talent on defense, while Tennessee lost a lot of production on offense.
The rivalry returns to the third game of the season for the first time since 2013, so this will be each team’s first conference game of the season.
Probably the biggest matchup of the game will be the Tennessee secondary against the Florida receivers. Antonio Callaway is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. Tennessee safeties Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly, Micah Abernathy, and Evan Berry will compete for starting jobs in a crowded secondary. Kelly led the team in tackles last season, while Warrior has garnered the most buzz with devastating hits on opposing receivers.
No. 2 – Georgia at Tennessee (Sept. 30)
The Georgia-Tennessee game last season was probably the most exciting finish of any SEC game (although you could at least make an argument for South Carolina-Vanderbilt). Tennessee’s Jauan Jennings made a spectacular catch on a Hail Mary with just four seconds left in the game for the win.
While this rivalry has featured brief periods of domination by one team, the last four contests have been decided by a combined 16 points. The last three contests at Neyland Stadium have been decided by a combined 18 points. Georgia won in overtime in 2013, while Tennessee won 38-31 in 2015.
Tennessee will feature a new quarterback this season and Joshua Dobbs won’t be easy to replace. Junior Quinten Dormady appears to be the early favorite, but Georgia returns last season’s starter Jacob Eason. Eason will be tested by a deep Tennessee secondary. However, Eason is fortunate to have one of the best backfield in the SEC with Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and incoming freshman speedster D’Andre Swift. The Tennessee defense faces a major test.
No. 1 – Florida vs. Georgia (Neutral site, Oct. 28)
Florida has won three straight in this matchup, but Georgia won three straight prior to that. Georgia and Florida are the two preseason favorites in the East division, so this game could determine who ends up on top. Florida gets the benefit of the doubt, having won the division the last two seasons.
This game is interesting for a host of reasons, one of them being the matchup between two former Nick Saban coordinators. Florida head coach Jim McElwain was the offensive coordinator for the 2009 championship Alabama team. Kirby Smart served as the defensive coordinator for the same team. Seeing the coaches try to out-strategize the other is one of the more interesting subplots of the game.
On the field, the most interesting matchup is the Georgia receivers against the Florida secondary. Georgia’s receiving corps is largely unproven but full of talent. Jeremiah Holloman and Mark Webb are both highly regarded four-star recruits who should see the field in their freshman years. Terry Godwin and Javon Wims showed flourishes at times last season and will take on bigger roles this season.
Next: 5 most important SEC West games
It is a similar story for Florida’s secondary. The team lost a lot of experience through the NFL Draft, but Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson are replaced by two defensive backs with high ceilings in Duke Dawson and Chauncey Gardner. However, neither player has received a ton of playing time up to this point.