While the NFL only has 32 starting quarterbacks, the 2018 class of college football quarterbacks is sure to fill at least a few of those spots.
It’s no easy task picking the quarterbacks that have the best chance to succeed in the NFL. That’s why NFL scouts have a job in the first place. Yet, looking ahead with all college football quarterbacks is something that is fun to do to pass the time during the offseason.
Moreover, the upcoming quarterback class for the 2018 NFL Draft has quite a bit of depth. Quarterbacks like USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, among many others, form a solid class.
This article also looks at the whole landscape of college football quarterbacks, taking all at the position into consideration. It’s harder to rank younger players higher on the list but they’re still taken into consideration as well. So many things can change over the next few seasons but raw talent is something that does not.
Franchise quarterbacks are a commodity that some teams spend more than a decade searching for. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson, do not come around every day. Teams like the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Rams have seemingly been searching for a franchise quarterback for what seems like more than a decade now.
Another thing to consider is the fact that getting drafted early does not mean that a quarterback is guaranteed to succeed more than one drafted in the later rounds. For example, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott were both drafted in the third round or later and are considered two of the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL today. Now, let’s take a look at the 20 college football quarterbacks with the best chance to succeed in the NFL.
The Tennessee Volunteers are in flux at the quarterback position after losing three-year starter Joshua Dobbs to graduation. Dobbs could be a good NFL player and was discussed much during the months leading up to the 2017 NFL Draft as being a potential sleeper pick.
Jarrett Guarantano could be much of the same when he is drafted. Guarantano will be eligible to declare for the NFL Draft in 2019 but is likely to stay at Tennessee past his sophomore season, if past Vols QB’s are any indication. Yet, Dobbs was the first steady quarterback that Tennessee had in quite a while.
There’s a chance that Guarantano does not start this season, instead it would be Quentin Dormady. But Guarantano would be the more promising option for the future. Even if Dormady does start, he will have a very short leash. The amount of opportunities available for Guarantano to make a name for himself in Knoxville are large.
At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, Guarantano has the size and strength needed to succeed in the NFL. He was originally a pro-style quarterback four-star signee in the 2016 recruiting class for Tennessee. Guarantano has the arm as well to succeed at the NFL level. We’ll just have to see how he handles himself for the next two or three years in college. Tennessee does not have a consistent track record of developing quarterbacks recently.
Wimbush first signed with Notre Dame back in 2015 as a four-star signee, and the highest rated player in the 2015 commitment class for the Irish. He takes over for another NFL Draft pick in DeShone Kizer who was drafted by the Cleveland Browns. Wimbush and first-year offensive coordinator Chip Long can not only take the Irish in a new direction after last year’s rough 4-8 campaign but they can also establish the young quarterback as a potential franchise QB.
There’s very little time that Wimbush has been given to prove himself. He has not attempted a single pass in a college game. And there’s a ton of pressure on him to perform this season and turn around Notre Dame’s fortunes. Wimbush certainly has the potential to solidify himself among college football’s best but actually doing that is another challenge completely.
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Much like Guarantano, Wimbush has the potential and the right situation to be put on the right path to being a first round draft pick, at some point, in the NFL Draft. However, pay close attention to both prospects this season to see how they establish the foundation for the rest of their college careers.
This might be the most surprising inclusion on the list to most people. Mizzou’s Drew Lock put up solid numbers last season but has not yet led the Tigers to a successful season since he first got the starting gig back in 2015. Yet, the improvement in Lock’s numbers between 2015 and 2016 is significant.
Lock’s first season in 2015 saw him throw for 1,332 yards and four touchdowns with eight interceptions. In 2016, he threw for 3,399 yards and 23 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions. If he continues that type of improvement, then Mizzou will actually return to a bowl game for the first time since they won the SEC East in 2014.
There’s a lot resting on Lock’s shoulders in 2017. Another three or four win season for Mizzou would result in the likely benching of Lock and maybe the end of his career and NFL potential as we know it. However, if he manages to return Mizzou to the success that they saw in 2013 and 2014 when they won the SEC East in back-to-back seasons, then he will be hailed as a program-changing quarterback.
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The translation between changing a program at the college level and changing the entire course of a franchise in the NFL is different. If Lock can do something of the sorts with Mizzou this season, then NFL scouts will start to recognize him just a little bit more.
One of the few Group of Five conference quarterbacks on this list, South Florida’s Quinton Flowers is one of the best in the nation this year. He might not have the same draft stock as guys like Wyoming’s Josh Allen and USC’s Sam Darnold but he could post the same type of numbers.
Last season, Flowers threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He added another 1,527 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. Most running backs do not have the ability to put up those type of numbers. He’ll have another chance to improve his stat line again in 2017, especially if he progresses like he did in 2016.
South Florida could be the best Group of Five conference team in 2017 and is the favorite to get that bid for a New Year’s Six bowl game. Getting USF to that point solidifies Flowers’ status as one of the best leaders and quarterbacks in college football. That’s something that NFL scouts recognize when looking at the 2018 QB class.
Star running back Marlon Mack is gone which could hurt Flowers’ chance of running the USF offense as efficiently as he did in 2016. However, former Texas head coach and first-year headman Charlie Strong should be able to put together a solid campaign for Flowers.
Putting together a full season of consistent success is the first thing Shane Buechele must do before he maximizes the potential that most college football fans know he has. The Texas Longhorns have not had a consistent quarterback to work with since Colt McCoy and their next hope lies with Buechele.
There’s number one overall pick potential in Buechele with his ability to make nearly every throw and the arm strength that he possesses. His eligibility to leave early from Texas for the NFL Draft first starts in 2019, if he decides to leave after his junior year.
Buechele’s season started going downhill in the final three games of the 2016 campaign. He threw five interceptions and only two touchdowns in those final three games. Getting off to a good start in 2017 puts Buechele’s draft stock trending in the right direction once again.
Buechele is so far down on this list because of the uncertainty surrounding his future with the Horns. The inability of Texas to produce a single NFL quarterback in a long time gives doubt to Buechele’s NFL future.
Much like Shane Buechele, Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham might be at the top of this list by the end of the 2017 college football season. However, the uncertainty surrounding his current situation puts him at this spot. Stidham has less than a full regular season of experience when he was a freshman with the Baylor Bears.
His stats with Baylor are more than impressive as is the film. Stidham threw for 1,265 yards and 12 touchdowns with only two interceptions. The only start he ever lost was against the Oklahoma Sooners. That also happened to be the one year that the Big 12 sent a team to the College Football Playoff, which was that same Oklahoma team. No one blames a loss like that on Stidham.
The hype surrounding the Auburn Tigers and Stidham has grown immensely during the offseason. It remains to be seen how good Auburn will actually be with Stidham behind center. However, he is theoretically the perfect fit for the offense that the Tigers run.
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Any NFL team checking out Stidham sees the dual threat ability he possesses in combination with his natural ability to step up in the pocket and make every throw. Auburn dual threat quarterbacks get mixed results in the NFL. The last two that come to mind are Cam Newton and Nick Marshall (who entered the NFL as a cornerback).
Being the best quarterback in college football does not always translate to becoming to the best one in the NFL. That statement directly applies to Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield who currently projects as a third to fifth round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, he does have the opportunity to lead Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff for the second time in his college career this season.
Mayfield does not possess the size or decision making ability that most NFL teams are looking for. However, quite a few NFL quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints proved that size does not always matter.
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Very few quarterbacks have the pedigree that Mayfield has built for himself during his time in Norman. Another productive season might change the conversation for Mayfield in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Even former Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes became a first round pick when no one though that he would. The unquestioned leadership ability, “it factor”, scrambling ability, and arm strength that Mayfield showcases are just a few of the reasons why an NFL team will take a chance on him.
There’s very few quarterbacks in college football more accomplished than Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett. Entering his senior year, he’s thrown for 6,381 yards and almost 70 touchdowns in his college career. He’s also tacked on 2,465 rushing yards and 31 touchdowns on the ground.
Originally thrust into the starting role for the Buckeyes in 2014 because of a Braxton Miller injury, Barrett thrived almost immediately. He has been the consistent starter for Ohio State ever since and is always considered a Heisman contender.
While Barrett’s draft stock might not match up with his college pedigree, some NFL team is sure to take a chance on him. Much like Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Barrett will be discussed so heavily and analyzed so much that one NFL team will have a fit for him in the 2018 NFL Draft.
A lot of Barrett’s draft stock is dependent on his senior campaign. Even though Ohio State did win a National Title while Barrett has been in college, he was not the starting quarterback during that time thanks to injury. Winning a National Championship is surely possible for Ohio State this season and Barrett would definitely reap the rewards come draft time if he could lead them there.
Most of the talk surrounding Jake Browning’s draft buzz will not revolve around his stock directly, but whether he will actually enter the draft after the 2017 season. There’s a lot on the line for Browning with the Washington Huskies this season. Can he take them back to the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season and win the Pac-12 again? Will he survive without wide receiver John Ross as his primary weapon?
All of those questions and much more will be answered as the season goes on. If he gets Washington close to another Playoff and they still have an opportunity to contend in 2018, you figure that Browning would stay for his senior season. Yet, if Washington either manages to win a National Championship or they fall drastically short of expectation, then Browning is likely to leave early.
This list has quite a few quarterbacks who’re currently at the top of the college game but have numerous road blocks keeping them from being top notch NFL players. Yet, at least one of them will be a key piece in the NFL landscape for years to come.
Alabama quarterbacks have never been the most successful of all the positions that the Tide consistently product NFL talent at. A.J. McCarron was really the last Alabama QB that was drafted with any key role with any NFL team. Other Alabama quarterbacks like Greg McElroy, John Parker Wilson, Jake Coker, and Blake Sims, have not held significant roles in the NFL for any extended period of time.
Jalen Hurts does possess a different skill set compared to the typical Alabama quarterback. He’s much more than a “game manager” behind center with the level of athleticism he possesses. Backup quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might take up some playing time this year and in years to come in Tuscaloosa.
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The playing time and actual usage in the Alabama offense that Hurts gets over the next season or two directly correlates to his potential decision to leave school early and go into the NFL Draft. NFL teams that have questionable offensive lines or use a lot of QB runs in their system have a perfect fit for Hurts.
Whether Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald can actually take the Bulldogs from sleeper pick to relevant contender in the SEC West is a storyline to watch in 2017. Just one year after Dak Prescott’s eligibility ran out with Mississippi State, the Bulldogs struggled to even get their record to .500.
Fitzgerald looks the part to be all that and more for the Bulldogs this season. He quietly notched more than 3,500 total yards and 37 total touchdowns in 2016. That helped the Bulldogs end their 2016 campaign on a two-game winning streak to build momentum entering the 2017 season.
At 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Fitzgerald possesses the qualities necessary to succeed at the NFL level. Thanks to Prescott’s play as a rookie with the Dallas Cowboys, Fitzgerald will get extra attention and speculation from suitors whenever he declares for the NFL Draft.
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According to Saturday Down South, Fitzgerald and Jarrett Stidham both have a lot of comparable qualities that will make them successful at the NFL level. Converting on all the buildup that Mississippi State this season is the single biggest factor in the direction that Fitzgerald’s draft stock ultimately ends up going.
A number of questions will be answered when the Deondre Francois and the Florida State Seminoles take the field in Week 1 against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Both teams are a lock to be ranked inside the top five, possibly in the top three. Head coach Jimbo Fisher rarely gets a press conference in without getting bombarded with inquiries into his state of mind entering the Bama game.
With All-American running back Dalvin Cook gone, the burden of the offense now falls on Francois, who had a productive freshman season. However, Francois did take quite the beating behind a suspect offensive line last year.
Altogether, Francois compiled 25 total touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first season as a starting QB. The comparisons between former Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston and Francois aren’t likely to cease anytime soon. Living up to the hype of a National Championship and Heisman winner and a former number one overall pick is not easy, yet Francois seems to be handling it well.
According to multiple reports, Francois looks at the positive side of all the Jameis comparisons but wants to establish his own path. That seems like the right attitude for a player with so many expectations entering his second season as a starter.
This is going to be the second consecutive season that Luke Falk has the hype built up to unreal levels for the talent around him with Washington State. However, Falk’s numbers are unreal as well over the last two seasons. Between 2015 and 2016 combined, Falk threw for more than 9,000 yards and nearly 80 touchdowns.
The speculation around Falk varies depending on what sources you look at. According to CBS Sports, Falk ranks as the fourth best quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft class. However, quite a few people believe that Falk’s game won’t translate between the college and NFL level and he would be a waste of an early round draft pick.
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You can’t deny the production from Falk during his time in Pullman. Another great season could be in the makings with the weapons surrounding Falk in 2017. Running backs Jamal Morrow and Gerard Wicks along with wide receivers Robert Lewis and Tavares Martin Jr. all provide Falk with experience and talent that could elevate Wazzu to the top of the PAC-12 North.
The praise for Ole Miss’s Shea Patterson is high. According to SEC Country, Patterson received comparisons to NFL legend Peyton Manning last year. However, that type of comparison really gets ahead of where Patterson is in the process of becoming a star in the SEC. With the Ole Miss football program in such turmoil right now, Patterson’s immediate future is not certain.
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Patterson has only played in three career games, posting impressive numbers at the end of those three stars. He threw for 880 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions while also leading Ole Miss to a huge victory over the Texas A&M Aggies.
The mix of potential and turmoil with the Ole Miss football program right now is the biggest road block to Patterson’s success. According to one attorney, Ole Miss is as close as you can get to the death penalty right now in the midst of their huge NCAA investigation. That’s not a promising sign for the former five-star recruit out of IMG Academy.
No quarterback has better weapons at receiver to work with in the country than Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph. He’s been in the thick of talks as a first round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Teams like the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and New York Giants could use a quarterback with the size, arm strength, and overall potential of Rudolph.
Very few quarterbacks also look to have as promising of season in 2017 than Rudolph. Aside from the deep talent at wide receiver he has at Oklahoma State, the running back position is strong as well. Freshman All-American running back Justice Hill gives the Cowboys exactly what they need to have a thriving offense under head coach Mike Gundy.
Rudolph has the versatility to fit in a multitude of NFL offenses. While he does not line up much at all directly behind center, most NFL offenses do not run an offense that does that too frequently anymore.
One example of a talented NFL quarterback taking too many hits from seven step dropbacks after lining up behind center is Andrew Luck with the Indianapolis Colts. The Kansas City Chiefs had it figured out with Alex Smith in getting the ball out of his hands in just a few seconds and lining up in the shotgun formation most of the time. The hits on Smith are minimized and defenses have less time to read the development of the play. The way that NFL offenses are trending right now bodes well for Rudolph.
The chances that Josh Rosen stays at UCLA beyond the 2017 season are slim. He projects as a first round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft by most experts and has all the talent needed to succeed at the NFL level. However, one consistent season at UCLA is needed to solidify his status as a solid first rounder.
Last season, Rosen threw for nearly 2,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in only six games with the Bruins before missing the rest of the year because of injury. During his only full season in college, Rosen gradually became more consistent as the year went along.
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Rosen has shown steady improvement during his time at UCLA and there’s a considerable difference in the strength of the Bruins when he’s on the field. Yet, it will still be an uphill climb for UCLA in the PAC-12 in 2017. The USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Utah Utes, and Colorado Buffaloes all look strong. Even the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars are have a real chance to upset many of the top teams in the conference.
It’s hard to imagine Rosen dropping past the second round in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yet, if he’s unable to stay healthy in 2017 another season at UCLA would be necessary to elevate his draft stock back to where it should be based on his talent level.
Can Lamar Jackson translate his game to the NFL level and become a true franchise quarterback? That’s the biggest storyline to follow up on until Jackson begins his NFL career, whether that will begin in 2018 or 2019 (more likely that he declares for the 2018 NFL Draft). Jackson’s polarizing athleticism and ability to make defenders miss brings memories of Michael Vick, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin III (before the injury).
So far, Jackson has been able to stay healthy. Taking too much burden on his own shoulders and not trusting his teammates to help out is the biggest negative. Selfless play and overall awareness need improvement before Jackson’s considered a true number one quarterback in the NFL.
It’s easy to get caught up in the 51 total touchdowns that Jackson posted in 2016 on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. Yet, college stats don’t always translate to the NFL level and Jackson needs to work on his consistency inside the pocket.
Jackson does have the potential to be a consistent producer at the NFL level and he no doubt has the talent to compete. Trust in his teammates and teamwork need to progress entering his junior season with Louisville.
The last quarterback on this list not likely to get drafted into the NFL in the next draft. Georgia’s Jacob Eason was the top QB recruit in his class. His first season with the Dawgs definitely had its ups and downs but the positive shine brighter than anything.
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More than anything, Georgia as a whole needs to stop choking away leads and start winning games that they should be winning (i.e. the Tennessee game last season). That’s sure to happen as Eason progresses into the role that head coach Kirby Smart expects him to fill.
As a freshman, Eason threw for 2,430 yards and 16 touchdowns. He also performed well in a bowl win over the TCU Horned Frogs with two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Moreover, Georgia has such a talented backfield with rushers like Nick Chubb and Sony Michel that Eason does not have to do that much to win games.
Expect Eason to get his stat line up around 3,000 passing yards and 20-25 touchdowns in 2017. He has the most potential out of all quarterbacks that are in the first two years of their college career.
Something just feels right about Wyoming’s Josh Allen finding a home in the NFL as a franchise quarterback. Allen looks to be right alongside USC’s Sam Darnold at the end of the 2017 season as one of the two best quarterbacks in a loaded 2018 class.
At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Allen has the size that NFL teams look for in a prototypical pro-style quarterback. Allen has also showed the college football world the difference he makes with a team like the Wyoming Cowboys.
In his first full season as a starter, he took Wyoming to the Mountain West Championship Game and led them to eight wins. This came just one season after Wyoming won just two games in 2015. Fans expect the same type of result from the Cowboys behind Allen’s leadership again in 2017.
First and foremost, Allen needs to lower the rate at which he turns the ball over. He did manage 28 passing touchdowns last season but he also threw 15 interceptions. If nothing else, the 36 total touchdowns he posted shows his versatility as a pocket passer and a scrambler.
Allen is likely to have the most fragile draft stock of any projected 2018 first round pick. He can quickly solidify himself as a first round pick, or his draft stock can drop through the floor in the snap of a finger.
No one player had a bigger hand in a midseason turnaround with a Power Five conference team than Sam Darnold had with the USC Trojans. He took USC from essentially “dead in the water” to a top 10 team that gave eventual PAC-12 champion Washington their only regular season loss. Darnold also led the Trojans to a victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions in one of the most exciting Rose Bowls in recent memory.
According to Walter Football, Darnold will be the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. That tends to be a commonly shared opinion by the majority of scouts and experts. A fall from glory could certainly derail Darnold’s chances at being the number one overall pick in next year’s draft but he’s currently the favorite to get picked first.
Darnold was quoted saying no team should “tank their season because of me”, so he seems to still have his motivations focused on the right thing. Leading USC to a PAC-12 Championship and an appearance in the College Football Playoff is the immediate goal at hand for Darnold.
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The recent success, or lack thereof, for USC quarterbacks in the NFL will caution a few teams from making too big of an effort to draft Darnold. For example, Mark Sanchez, Cody Kessler, and Matt Leinart, are just a few names of past Trojan QB’s with high expectations and disappointing results at the NFL level (it might be too early to judge Kessler). At the end of the day, all we can do is wait and see wait happens with Darnold this season and in the future when he gets drafted into the NFL.