Houston football was a College Football Playoff contender in 2016 before losing three league games. Can the Cougars contend for a New Year’s Six bid in 2017?
Last season, Houston was the darling of September. The Cougars rolled off five straight wins, including a deconstruction of Big 12 winner Oklahoma. For a brief period, it looked like the Cougars were more than just a contender for the Group of Five’s bid to a New Year’s Six game. Instead, they looked like College Football Playoff threats.
Then they fell to Navy to begin October, lost games against SMU and Memphis, and toppled out of the national picture. Head coach Tom Herman was lost to Texas before they went bowling. As a result, Houston enters 2017 with a lot of questions.
But the Cougars can still be a contender for the American Athletic Conference and a bid in a major bowl game. They lost Herman, but kept offensive coordinator Major Applewhite as their new head coach.
There are questions on offense, but a veteran defense returns hoping to shore up any chance of downswings in 2017. The Cougars are in position to contend for their conference and the Group of Five bowl bid. What does Houston need to do to return to double digits in the win column?
Offense
This year, the offense will start and stop depending on whether or not the running game can pick up the slack of losing a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. Duke Catalon and Dillion Birden will headline a ground attack that should be more prominent in 2017. Both could feature more on both traditional carries as well as catching passes out of the backfield.
A veteran offensive line returns as well in 2017. The rotation at the line of scrimmage brings back the same starting five that held down the jobs at the end of last season. That includes All-America candidates Will Noble at center and Josh Jones at left tackle.
Houston also has the majority of its receivers returning. Other than Chance Allen, who graduated after last season, the team returns both Linell Bonner and Steven Dunbar from last year’s starters. They will be pushed by a group of talented youngsters who will be worked into the rotation.
Who replaces Greg Ward Jr.?
Losing a multi-year starter at quarterback is never easy. Greg Ward Jr. was a catalyst for Houston’s offense, a three-year starter who would make plays with his arm or his legs. But even with Ward’s graduation, Major Applewhite has a problem few coaches would envy.
Does he start the touted transfer quarterback with starting experience, or one of last year’s key backups? The frontrunner to take over at quarterback is Kyle Allen, who boasts two years of starts at Texas A&M before falling out of favor and transferring. He should get the bulk of the snaps ahead of Kyle Postma and D’Eriq King.
Defense
Houston’s formidable run defense returns most of the players that made the unit great on the ground in 2016. Sophomore defensive tackle Ed Oliver leads the unit, but there is plenty of talent all around. That includes veterans Nick Thurman and Jerard Carter alongside Oliver on the defensive line.
The experience extends to the second level, where linebacker Matthew Adams leads a solid group. Austin Robinson, who played at safety last year after playing quarterback at UTSA early in his college career, moves to linebacker this season. Robinson looked great in spring practice and likely has the inside track on a starting role in 2017.
The defense had its biggest issues last year against the pass. While the Cougars were one of the best in the country at stopping the run, they were a sieve in the secondary.
Can Houston improve against the pass?
In hopes of improving depth in the defensive backfield, Isaiah Johnson was moved over from offense to play cornerback. Johnson spent the past two years with the receiving corps. Now he will try to use his tall frame to gain the upper hand against opposing receivers.
Johnson is hardly guaranteed a starting role, despite playing well in the spring. As a whole, the unit has a lot of upside but little experience at corner. Jeremy Winchester is the most experienced returning cornerback, having started 10 games over the past two seasons while playing mostly a reserve role.
The Cougars are in better shape at safety, where starters Garrett Davis and Khalil Williams both return. Their backups both saw playing time last year. With what looks to be improved depth, Houston has the opportunity to stem the outsized production that opposing quarterbacks enjoyed in 2016.
2017 Schedule
| WEEK | DATE | OPPONENT | LOCATION |
| 1 | Sep 2, 2017 | Houston @ UTSA | San Antonio, TX |
| 2 | Sep 9, 2017 | Houston @ Arizona | Tucson, AZ |
| 3 | Sep 16, 2017 | Rice @ Houston | Houston, TX |
| 4 | Sep 23, 2017 | Texas Tech @ Houston | Houston, TX |
| 5 | Sep 30, 2017 | Houston @ Temple | Philadelphia, PA |
| 6 | Oct 7, 2017 | SMU @ Houston | Houston, TX |
| 7 | Oct 14, 2017 | Houston @ Tulsa | Tulsa, OK |
| 8 | Oct 19, 2017 [THU] | Memphis @ Houston | Houston, TX |
| 9 | Oct 28, 2017 | East Carolina @ Houston | Houston, TX |
| 10 | Nov 4, 2017 | Houston @ South Florida | Tampa, FL |
| 11 | BYE WEEK | ||
| 12 | Nov 18, 2017 | Houston @ Tulane | New Orleans, LA |
| 13 | Nov 24, 2017 [FRI] | Navy @ Houston | Houston, TX |
What’s in store for Houston in 2017?
The Cougars face two prominent Power Five opponents in 2016. They knocked off both Oklahoma and Louisville, taking down the Big 12 champion and the Heisman winner respectively. But those pair of victories was negated in large part by Houston’s failure to maintain its dominance through its conference schedule.
This year the Cougars have a lower degree of difficulty in their non-conference schedule. The Sooners and Cardinals are replaced by Arizona and Texas Tech. As a result there is far less margin for error built into this campaign. They also play UTSA and Rice out of conference, and so anything less than 4-0 would be a disaster for their New Year’s Six dreams.
In AAC play, the Cougars have tough road tests against Temple, Tulsa, and South Florida. All three of the conference opponents they lost to last year, though, have to come to Houston this season. It is going to be tough to go undefeated in conference play, as the Cougars showed last season, but they will once again challenge to put double digits in the win column.
Next: Houston Cougars - 2-deep roster projections
Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 American)
The Cougars open the year with road trips to San Antonio and Tucson. Both are winnable contests, though Arizona will be playing for Rich Rodriguez’s job this year. Home games against Rice and Texas Tech are also winnable, and the Cougars should be undefeated entering conference play. The AAC remains deceptively deep, and Houston will likely drop a couple of games along the way. Despite losing some key parts from last year’s team, the results are probably going to end up better in 2017.