Tennessee Football: 2017 season preview, predictions

Can head coach Butch Jones avoid the hot seat and lead Tennessee football to a New Year’s Six bowl in 2017?

Last year was supposed to be the one in which Tennessee broke through, winning the SEC and earning a trip to the College Football Playoff over Alabama. Joshua Dobbs returned to a talented team and the Volunteers were ranked highly early in the season.

However, it was evident that the team just didn’t have what it took to be elite. In fact, the Volunteers needed overtime to beat Appalachian State at home, which nearly resulted in a loss, and, two weeks later, narrowly defeated Ohio in Knoxville, winning by just nine points.

The season seemed to be headed in the right direction after a miracle win over Georgia in Athens, but the Volunteers had a bit of a hangover from the last-second victory, losing to Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina in back-to-back-to-back weeks. The season was lost at that point, but Butch Jones’ squad still needed one more win for bowl eligibility.

Tennessee ended up winning he next three games before losing to Vanderbilt to close the regular season and finished with nine victories after beating Nebraska in the Music City Bowl. It wasn’t the prettiest of seasons under Jones, and expectations are even lower heading into 2017.

With a new starting quarterback and just 12 total returning starters, this team could be in for a long season. Can Jones avoid the hot seat and lead the Volunteers to 10-plus wins and a New Year’s Six bowl?

Offense

The offense for Tennessee will have a slightly different look in 2017. Gone is Joshua Dobbs, as mentioned earlier, as well as Jalen Hurd who quit the team last season. There will be a two-man race for the starting quarterback job, but it seems as if John Kelly will do just fine at running back.

In fact, Kelly took over for Hurd last season when he left, rushing for 630 yards and five touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry. He could be a breakout candidate on this side of the ball and his backups, freshman Ty Chandler and sophomore Carlin Fils-aime, should be solid No. 2 and No. 3 options, respectively.

Jauan Jennings returns as the team’s No. 1 option in 2017. He had 40 catches for 580 yards and seven touchdowns last season, but figures to have an even bigger year. Sophomores Tyler Byrd, sixth on the team in receiver, and Marquez Callaway, one catch in 2016, are the presumed starters as well. Josh Smith, Brandon Johnson and Jeff George provide depth.

Senior Ethan Wolf returns at tight end after catching 22 passes for 247 yards and two scores in 2016. He will combine with a talented group of receivers to give whichever player is named starting QB a solid crop of targets.

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Lastly, and most importantly, the offensive line returns three starters. Senior Coleman Thomas, however, will likely play the role of backup center this season. He will be the understudy to returning starter Jason Robertson. Brett Kendrick, also a senior, will likely be a backup as well.

The line will be young, with loads of potential. Look out for guys like Drew Richmond, Jack Jones, Chance Hall and talented freshman Trey Smith.

Can Joshua Dobbs be adequately replaced?

There’s currently a two-man race for the starting quarterback job in Knoxville. Junior Quinten Dormady has game experience while redshirt freshman Jared Guarantano figures to push for that starting job as a former highly-regarded four-star prospect.

Although Dormady looked solid in minimal action last season, passing for 148 yards on 11-of-17 completions, Guarantano may have the most upside. He’s a young guy who fans have been clamoring for, but could either adequately replace Dobbs?

The dual-threat quarterback was one of the main reasons Tennessee was even on the map last year. Sure, the Volunteers had a talented roster coming into the season, but the return of Dobbs brought all the hype. Neither Dormady nor Guarantano have that same flash, yet, but if the Vols can stick to one starter, expect the hype to grow.

Maybe not this year, but next year the expectations surrounding the starting QB will be at Dobbs’ level.

Defense

How good can this side of the ball be after a disappointing 2016 season? The Volunteers finished 95th in total defense, allowing nearly 450 yards per game, as well as 68th in scoring. That’s not exactly a recipe for success and it played a major role in the 9-4 season and 4-4 letdown in SEC play.

The Volunteers return six defensive starters, but a couple of the members in the secondary coming back aren’t guaranteed to retain their No. 1 jobs. Senior Emmanuel Mosely, a corner, is one of those guys. He had 57 tackles and six pass deflections last season.

The other is junior safety Micah Abernathy. He had 69 tackles, which was second on the team, four pass deflections and two interceptions. However, when your secondary ranks 72nd against the pass, you need to make changes.

Seniors Justin Martin and Shaq Wiggins look to be the starting corners and senior Todd Kelly Jr., the team’s leading tackler in 2016, will be joined by sophomore Nigel Warrior at the safety spots. Evan Berry is also back. The potential for improvement is there.

Can front-seven make necessary changes?

The front-seven, which includes the nickel back position, returns just three starters from a season ago. While that may seem like a bad sign, it could be quite the opposite. In fact, the front-seven was in desperate need of a fresh start after allowing over 200 rushing yards per game last season, good for 104th in the country.

Can the unit make the necessary changes to move forward as a serviceable run-stopping force? Kendal Vickers returns as a starting tackle, the only returning lineman, after recording 38 tackles and 2.5 sacks last season. Junior Kahlil McKenzie joins him on the interior as a starter while sophomore Darrell Taylor and junior Jonathan Kongbo are the presumed starters at the ends — neither has much starting experience.

Junior Darrin Kirkland finished eighth on the team in tackles, with 45, and returns as a starting middle linebacker. Next to him will be senior Cortez McDowell who finished one spot higher with 54 total tackles. Rashaan Gaulden is a name to watch at nickel, finishing with 67 tackles last season and playing well.

This unit has the talent, but it’s not going to be easy to replace Derek Barnett. However, there’s nowhere to go but up from that 104th ranking.

2017 schedule

The Volunteers’ 2017 schedule isn’t quite as daunting as others in the SEC. In fact, the Volunteers’ four road games feature two that are extremely winnable — Kentucky and Missouri — while the other two might be out of reach — at Alabama and at Florida.

However, the home games should all be close. While LSU and Georgia will provide tough tests, neither of those two are at the level of Alabama. Each team in the SEC is beatable this season and that’s what makes these games in Knoxville that much more intriguing. There’s something about playing at Neyland Stadium that haunts opponents.

It’s just not an easy place to play if you’re the road team, and that could lead to a couple of upsets.

The other SEC home games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be sure wins. Not only are those teams less talented than Tennessee, but it’s an opportunity for the Vols to exact revenge for losses in 2016. The 2017 schedule favors the Volunteers.

Next: College Football: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017

Prediction: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)

Is eight wins generous for a team that lost so much and is coming off a disappointing season with veterans riddled across the roster? Possibly, but the schedule seems favorable. The Volunteers should start the season 3-1 with a loss at Florida and then lose their fifth game against Georgia, although it’s a toss-up, to drop to 3-2. After the bye week, Tennessee should handle South Carolina, Kentucky, Southern Miss, Missouri and Vanderbilt. The only losses I see in the second half are against LSU and Alabama. A solid season for an unproven group of guys.