Oregon football slipped to 4-8 and Mark Helfrich lost his job. Will the Ducks return to bowl eligibility in Willie Taggart’s first season at the helm in Eugene?
Last season, Oregon finished the year with a losing record for the first time since 2004. The 4-8 season ended an 11-year streak of bowl appearances for the Ducks. While previous Oregon coaches were able to survive a single losing season, the 2016 results were too much to save Mark Helfrich’s job.
A four-decade head coaching lineage that started when Rich Brooks was hired by UO in 1977 is now history. This year marks the first season for former South Florida head coach Willie Taggart in Eugene. After seven years in the Group of Five at Western Kentucky and USF, Taggart finally gets his chance to lead a Power Five program.
So what does Taggart bring to the table?
Taggart, who worked as Jim Harbaugh‘s running backs coach at Stanford before his first head coaching gig with the Hilltoppers, has already begun to earn ire from some quarters after calling for the program to scale back some of its sartorial experimentation. But the Ducks are still going to be ahead of the fashion curve even if they pare down the number of combinations, and that won’t be the difference between 4-8 and 8-4.
The schedule lines up for the Ducks to rebound from last year’s bowl-free season. Oregon still has plenty of talent throughout its roster that can help return the Ducks to the postseason in 2017. And with three of their losses coming by three-point deficits in 2016, there was not that much separating the Ducks from a bowl appearance last year.
What might the 2017 schedule hold in store for the Ducks as they charge ahead into a new era? Click ahead to see our predictions for each game on the Oregon schedule in 2017.
Southern Utah featured a ballhawking defense in 2016. With 20 interceptions and another half dozen fumble recoveries, the Thunderbirds defense were among the FCS leaders in turnovers and turnover margin. But they also conceded an average of more than four touchdowns per game, gave up over 300 passing yards through the air each outing, and were merely a middle-of-the-pack defense in most other categories.
The result was that the Thunderbirds ultimately ended the year with a 6-5 record. Southern Utah barely finished over .500 in Big Sky Conference play, and they were nowhere near reaching the FCS playoffs. They were selected by both media members and coaches to finish seventh in the 13-team Big Sky this season.
In that context, Southern Utah looks a lot like many other FCS opponents Oregon has faced in recent years. The Ducks have played one lower-division team per year every season since 2010. In that seven-year stretch, Oregon has won every one of those games by double digits.
This year should be no different. Justin Herbert should have plenty of time to build up confidence with new receivers to begin the season, and Royce Freeman could begin an early Heisman campaign with a huge day against Southern Utah’s overmatched front seven. Look for this one to be out of reach well before halftime.
FINAL: Oregon 62, Southern Utah 17 (1-0)
Last year Nebraska managed to come back against Oregon when the two teams met in Lincoln. That game, which involved continuing to go for two points after every touchdown despite an inability to convert consistently, spelled the beginning of the end for Mark Helfrich.
This season the Cornhuskers come to Eugene for the return game. But the Nebraska team that visits Autzen Stadium looks very different from the squad that survived the Ducks in 2016. Three quarters of the offensive production from last season is no longer on the Nebraska roster. The defense likewise lost half of its starters from last season’s squad.
Nebraska has had Oregon’s number throughout the course of their sporadic lifetime series. The two teams have met seven times overall, with the Cornhuskers winning six of the seven games. Oregon’s only win in the series came back in 1953, when Len Casanova’s Webfoot team knocked off Bill Glassford’s Nebraska squad.
Oregon, conversely, is among the most intact teams from last season. With the experience factor flipped, the Ducks should have no trouble taking down Nebraska this year. The Huskers defense could keep things close through the first half, but look for Oregon to pull away after the intermission.
FINAL: Oregon 41, Nebraska 24 (2-0)
Three years ago, Wyoming traveled to Eugene to play Oregon for the first time in the two schools’ long football histories. On that day, the Cowboys scored the first touchdown of the game and actually led 7-0 at the end of the first quarter. Then Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota generated six touchdowns on six straight drives in the second and third quarters, and Oregon ran away with a 48-14 victory.
The two teams enter this return game at different points of their trajectory. Wyoming is coming off a season where they surprised everyone to win the MWC Mountain Division ahead of Boise State. Oregon, as already discussed, is coming off a down season. Even in that context, though, there is a gulf in talent between the two teams.
Wyoming still has Josh Allen, who is already projected as one of the top quarterbacks available in the 2018 NFL Draft. But they lost Brian Hill, one of the most prolific runners in FBS the past few seasons. The Cowboys return most of their defense from last season, but that group also finished outside the top 100 in points and yards allowed in 2016.
Allen will get a few over the top of Oregon’s secondary when the Ducks travel to Laramie for the first time in school history. But the visitors simply have too many weapons for the Pokes to hang in too long. Look for Oregon to pull away in the second half as they remain undefeated in September.
FINAL: Oregon 52, Wyoming 27 (3-0)
In many ways Arizona State is in a similar boat to Oregon. They missed out on a bowl game for the first time in years. They underachieved after what seemed a promising start. The main difference is that the Sun Devils still have their head coach after finishing under .500 in 2016.
ASU features a backfield of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage that boasts one of the best two-pronged ground attacks in the country. Yet, paradoxically, the Sun Devils ranked as one of the worst teams in 2016 in terms of rushing yardage amassed. Graham needs to sort out the team’s issues quickly if he hopes to remain in Tempe beyond this season.
The showdown with the Ducks in Arizona is one of those ride-or-die contests that will determine the course of both teams’ seasons. Whichever team wins the showdown will have an inside track on bowl eligibility, while the other will be scrambling to find enough wins in the rest of the regular season to get there.
Last year’s game between the two teams saw Oregon put together one of its most complete performances of a mostly disappointing season. Though the Sun Devils should manage to keep it closer than last year’s blowout in Eugene, they are still likely to falter down the stretch in the conference opener for both teams. Late Royce Freeman touchdowns will likely be the difference as Oregon grinds down the clock to victory.
FINAL: Oregon 41, Arizona State 31 (4-0)
California last won in Eugene back in 2007, the sixth-ranked Golden Bears surviving the Autzen trap against 11th-ranked Oregon. Since that game, though, the two teams have taken divergent trajectories. After a bye week, Cal lost six of its next seven games to tumble out of Pac-10 contention and have not had a 10-win season since. Oregon suffered their own setbacks in 2007 but have played in two national championship games over the past decade.
With Davis Webb off to the NFL, Chase Forrest is probably going to be getting the start at quarterback. He has attempted all of 18 passes in his first two seasons after redshirting in 2014. The offense will also be breaking in a new receiving corps, and Cal’s offensive line is one of the least experienced in all FBS. Thus, entering 2017, California faces uncertainty with a drastically different offense.
Meanwhile, they return most key parts of a defense that was among the nation’s worst in 2016. These are hardly the ingredients to pull off an upset at Autzen Stadium over a Ducks team that was better than its 4-8 record in 2016.
Like their showdown a decade ago, Oregon will probably be undefeated when they face Cal. Unlike that game, though, the Ducks will remain undefeated after the final whistle. The Golden Bears won’t be shut out in Eugene, but the game will be out of reach well before halftime.
FINAL: Oregon 41, California 13 (5-0)
Over the past few years, Mike Leach has turned Washington State from the laughingstock of the Pac-12 into a regular threat in the North. The Cougars first became a thorn in Oregon’s side two years ago, when they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Ducks with a 45-38 upset in Eugene. Last year the Cougars followed that up with a 51-33 rout in Pullman as they contended for the division title.
Leach has a veteran team returning this season, and Washington State will be hoping to capitalize on the momentum of the past few seasons to finally clear the 10-win hurdle for the first time since 2003. Luke Falk is back to terrorize Pac-12 secondaries, the Cougars have discovered a running game, and the defense brings back most of its key players from 2016.
Washington State has not won three straight against the Ducks since a four-year winning streak from 1981 through 1984. This year’s Cougars team has the talent to pull off a second straight win at Autzen.
The game will be close, but one of the country’s best teams at generating fumbles in 2016 will get a key turnover in the fourth quarter to preserve victory. This is the week when Oregon’s undefeated run under Willie Taggart comes to an end, but the Ducks will acquit themselves well as the first half of the season comes to a close.
FINAL: Washington State 38, Oregon 27 (5-1)
Since the Pac-10 expanded into the Pac-12 and split into two divisions, Oregon and Stanford have owned the North. Until Washington ended the streak last year, either the Cardinal or the Ducks represented the North in the first five Pac-12 championship games. Both teams are still chasing the Huskies this year, but Stanford doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel.
The base laid down by Jim Harbaugh remains in place on the Farm. David Shaw, Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator from 2007 to 2010, has won three conference titles in six seasons after taking over as head coach. The Cardinal have won at least 10 games in six of the past seven seasons.
They lost all-purpose threat Christian McCaffrey to the NFL, but the Cardinal still return plenty of talent. By this point of the season, Keller Chryst will have a full season as the starter at quarterback. Bryce Love is poised to become the next dynamic back in the Stanford backfield. And the defense should be as formidable as other recent editions.
Oregon should be able to score some points against the Cardinal, but they’re not going to win a shootout against Stanford. Shaw’s squad is going to be able to hit some big plays against the Duck defense. The home team will pull away to deal Oregon a second straight defeat, and Ducks fans will have to wait another week to try to reach bowl eligibility.
FINAL: Stanford 44, Oregon 28 (5-2)
UCLA is a team in transition, hoping to return to bowl eligibility after suffering a similar downturn as the Ducks in 2016. Their faltering was due to injuries to Josh Rosen, and the Bruins are hoping that they can finally contend in Josh Rosen’s final season at quarterback. Jim Mora’s job could depend on whether or not Rosen remains healthy and the offense produces.
That offense will have to be quite productive, because the Bruins lost a ton of talent to the NFL from last year’s defense. New starters will have a half-season under their belt by the time UCLA welcomes Oregon to the Rose Bowl. Two teams hoping to return to bowl eligibility might very well be playing for a sixth win on this late October day in Pasadena.
UCLA will come out hot, taking advantage of the home crowd to score early. They might even take a double-digit lead at some point. But this game will probably play out similarly to the Utah road trip last year. Justin Herbert and the Ducks offense will chip away, the defense will clamp down, and the fourth quarter will be pivotal.
Most of the scoring will happen in that final frame, as Oregon takes its first lead of the game only to see UCLA respond quickly. A late drive will end in a Darren Carrington II-style touchdown catch, and the Ducks will escape Pasadena with their sixth win to ensure a return to the postseason.
FINAL: Oregon 30, UCLA 28 (6-2)
Of course, it won’t be Carrington catching the winning pass at the Rose Bowl, because he’s now a Utah Ute after being dismissed for a DUII charge by Willie Taggart this summer. He will square off against his former teammates when the Utes visit Autzen Stadium on the Saturday before Halloween.
Utah was a contender in the Pac-12 South for most of last season. That loss to Oregon mathematically eliminated Utah from the division race last year. But a veteran squad should be back in the thick of the South this year, and the trip to Oregon could be a major tipping point for both teams.
If the Utes hope to keep pace with USC and the other schools in their division, they cannot falter in this contest. After getting to six wins, the Ducks might be a little complacent. That could prove fatal in this matchup.
Autzen fans will think they have this game in the bag early, with Oregon jumping out to an early lead. But Utah will claw back to narrow the deficit before halftime, and Kyle Whittingham and his staff will make adjustments at the intermission. Look for Carrington to potentially serve up a backbreaking play in the opposite direction this year.
FINAL: Utah 34, Oregon 30 (6-3)
Washington earned their way into the College Football Playoff last season. Chris Petersen’s crew is hungry to win the Pac-12 for a second straight year. The goal is a return to the playoff, and Oregon would love nothing more than to ruin their rival’s dreams.
The Huskies have most of the key players from their prolific offense back in 2017. Jake Browning is back at quarterback, Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman return at running back, and the Huskies return the most experience in the Pac-12. The defense will need to rebuild somewhat after losing a few key contributors to the pros, but Washington remains a national contender.
In that context, this is a great measuring-stick game for the Ducks in Taggart’s first season. Last year Oregon lost to the Huskies for the first time in 13 years. The 70-21 blowout at Autzen Stadium was a clear indication of the gulf between the two teams.
Oregon will probably do a bit better job containing the Huskies offense this time around. They will also probably score a bit more frequently against Washington’s rebuilt defense. But there is still a clear disparity between these two rivals that remains on the UW side of the ledger. There will be no upset this season for the Ducks.
FINAL: Washington 48, Oregon 28 (6-4)
After several charged encounters between these two teams, Arizona and Oregon have not faced one another in the past three seasons. The series resumes in 2017 with Arizona’s trip to Autzen Stadium in the penultimate game of both teams’ regular seasons. The Wildcats won both regular-season games in 2013 and 2014, but the Ducks got the better of Arizona to win the 2014 Pac-12 championship.
Arizona should know by this point of the year whether or not Rich Rodriguez is going to be back as the Wildcats coach in 2018 and beyond. The embattled head coach has overseen a consistent downswing in Arizona fortunes since that appearance in the 2014 conference championship game.
Arizona has a fair amount of talent, and they should be good enough to compete for bowl eligibility. They will still be toward the bottom half of the Pac-12 South, but they will also be hungry to enter their season finale against Arizona State on a high note. Unfortunately, Oregon will be looking to do the same ahead of the Civil War, and they should roll to a blowout at home.
Look for Willie Taggart to potentially throw freshman quarterback Braxton Burmeister into this contest after it gets out of hand in the second half. Oregon managed to flip the former Arizona commit at the 11th hour. It would be fitting to see him take on his former school for a few drives and throw a touchdown against the school that thought they had him locked into their roster.
FINAL: Oregon 52, Arizona 20 (7-4)
Oregon should already be bowl eligible once the 121st edition of the Civil War game kicks off between the Ducks and Oregon State on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Last year the Beavers beat UO for the first time since 2007. Fans in Corvallis are hoping that the tables have finally turned in what had been a lopsided series over the past decade.
Like Oregon, OSU also returns a veteran team that is hoping to build on the momentum of last season. Gary Andersen is entering his third season in Corvallis after leaving Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job in December 2014. And for the first time, the Beavers have a roster that could at least get back to a bowl game.
At this point of the year, though, Oregon’s offense will have coalesced enough to stave off any challenge from the Beavers. Andersen’s team is still a decade removed from its last win in Eugene, and Autzen Stadium has traditionally been a tough place for the Beavers to win. Since the stadium opened on the north side of the Willamette River in Eugene in 1967, the Ducks have gone 17-7-1 in the rivalry game at home.
As usual, it should be another hard-fought game between the two teams. Look for Oregon State to jump to an early lead and keep things close through the contest. Ducks fans will be sweating the result on a grey day in the Autzen stands. But Herbert and Freeman will put together a long drive for one last touchdown that makes the result look bigger than the actual gap in play between the two teams.
FINAL: Oregon 42, Oregon State 31 (8-4)
Final Standings: 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12)
After going 4-8 a year ago, the numbers will be reversed for Oregon in 2017. A 5-4 record in conference play will probably put the Ducks behind Stanford and the two Washington schools in the Pac-12 North standings and either sixth or seventh overall in the conference pecking order as bowl season approaches.
Fans in Eugene will be able to chalk this up as a successful season in Willie Taggart’s first year. A return to the postseason will also help in recruiting as the new coaching staff gets into the heart of its first full recruiting cycle at Oregon.
All in all, eight wins (with a ninth possible in the bowl game) would be a major step forward as the team builds toward 2018 and beyond. While this is the last season as a Duck for players like Royce Freeman, this year will set the tone for a new era in Oregon football.
Possible Bowl Game: Las Vegas Bowl v. Boise State
The Ducks haven’t played in Sin City since facing BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl back in 2006. Interestingly, Oregon has only played twice overall in Vegas throughout their long history, having also played in the Las Vegas Bowl in 1997 against Air Force.
The Pac-12 isn’t guaranteed a spot in any New Year’s Six bowl game, since the Rose Bowl takes its place as a College Football Playoff semifinal game this season. But the guess here is that the conference lands a team in either the playoff proper or one of the at-large spots. That would make this year’s Las Vegas Bowl to sixth in the conference bowl pecking order.
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Oregon will be an eight-win team, but they are also going to be somewhere around fourth in the Pac-12 North with a record just over .500 in league play. Vegas will jump at the chance to bring the Ducks to town for the third time in school history. Unless Boise State gets into a New Year’s Six game as the top Group of Five champion, they would be automatically in this game. It would be a reprisal of a surprisingly fierce rivalry.