The Alabama Crimson Tide have ruled the SEC for what feels like forever. Could 2017 be the year that Auburn football takes back control of the SEC West?
The College Football Playoff has existed for three seasons. Alabama has been the SEC representative every single year. That not surprising, but it’s also not set in stone moving forward. Eventually someone else will seize control over the SEC West? Why not Auburn? And why not this year?
Auburn has upgraded their offense through the addition of newly appointment starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham. They have some young, but experienced pass catches and a pair of elite running backs. Those offensive pieces, combined with one of the best defenses in the country will be enough to give the Tide a test, at the very least. Let’s take a look at each game of the 2017 Auburn football season and take a stab at predicting all 12 outcomes.
The Eagles joined the FBS in 2014. Leading the charge that season was current Tulane head coach Willie Fritz. He went 9-3 and 9-4 in two FBS seasons with Georgia Southern before moving on. First year coach Tyson Summers was called upon to replace him, but Summer was only able to manage a 5-7 record, finishing sixth in the Sun Belt Conference.
Not many folks outside of the southeast had heard of Georgia Southern prior to last year’s NFL Draft. The Eagles had two players selected, which isn’t all that incredible until you juxtapose that number with the number of players selected from the University of Georgia: 1. Were the Eagles more talented than the Bulldogs? Probably not. But something is going on at Georgia Southern.
As if the task of going toe-to-toe with an SEC giant wasn’t hard enough already, the Eagles are going to have to find a way to do it after replacing key pieces on offense. Quarterback Kevin Ellison has run out of eligibility as has last season’s leading rusher Matt Brieda and leading receiver B.J. Johnson.
There’s always one or two lower tier teams that gives a big name a wake up call at the beginning of the season. That’s not going to happen here. Auburn will roll through Georgia Southern en route to a solid season opening victory at home.
Final: Georgia Southern 13, Auburn 31 (1-0, 0-0 SEC)
In one of the better games at the beginning of the 2016 season, the Clemson Tigers edged out the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium 19-13. Deshaun Watson was responsible for the game-clinching fourth quarter touchdown to Hunter Renfrow.
Watson was a first round selection of the Houston Texas, leaving the quarterback position as a major question mark for Clemson entering 2016. Junior Kelly Bryant looks to have the inside track to start out of the gate, but that’s a byproduct of his time with the program more so than anything else.
More: Breaking down the Clemson quarterback battle
The next two options after Bryant are redshirt freshman, Zerrick Cooper and true freshman, Hunter Johnson. There’s a decent chance that any of those guys will be simply a placeholder until Trevor Lawrence, the No. 2 quarterback in the 2018 class, arrives on campus next season.
Regardless,one of those three will be tasked with making their first Saturday night start in Death Valley against an SEC heavyweight. Auburn’s challenger, Jarrett Stidham, looks to have the step up on whomever Clemson chooses to start and he should ultimately be the difference in this game for the Tigers on the road.
Final: Auburn 23, Clemson 20 (2-0, 0-0 SEC)
The second “cupcake” game of the 2017 season will result in the third Auburn win of the year. Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson almost effortlessly obliterated the two non-Power 5 teams that the Tigers played last season. In 51 total carries against Arkansas State and Alabama A&M, the backfield duo combined for 385 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
Two weeks removed from an easy win over Georgia Southern, this will be the week where we see the Tiger offense really begin to move. Blowing out a lower-tired team is what elite teams are supposed to do, but regardless of what the College Football Playoff committee says, style points matter.
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Fellow Southern Conference member Chattanooga played the Alabama Crimson Tide last season and were systematically dismantled 31-3. The Mocs finished second in the conference last season. Mercer finished fifth.
This is not an Appalachian State vs. Michigan waiting to happen. This is a game where Auburn takes care of business and moves on towards their first SEC game of the year against Missouri.
Final: Mercer 10, Auburn 45 (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. Since then they have more divisional titles (two in the East) than Auburn. The Auburn defeated Missouri in the SEC Championship game in 2013. That’s the only time this century that the two teams have met on the football field.
Since then Mizzou has faded into near-obscurity in the SEC East while Auburn has steadily tread water in the SEC West. Under new head coach Barry Odom, Missouri went 4-8 last season.
On the upside, they return quarterback Drew Lock who finished second in the conference in passing yards. Mizzou likes to air it out. Auburn’s defense was moderately susceptible through the air in 2016, much more so than on the ground. They finished 67th in total pass defense compared to 27th against the run.
This year’s Auburn team is much more suited for a shootout than in previous seasons. Stidham has a big arm and will not hesitate to air it out. Missouri will have no choice but to keep Lock in the shotgun and have him aim for Dimetrios Mason dropping back and J’mon Moore. Last season those two combined for 109 receptions, 1,599 yards and 11 touchdowns. The offense should be able to trade punches, but the defense won’t be strong enough to keep the road team at bay.
Final: Auburn 42, Missouri 31 (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
The Bulldogs are an interesting team. As long as Dan Mullen is behind the headset they’ll have the potential to pull off a shocking upset or two each season. They aren’t the most talented team in the SEC, far from it actually, but they play smart football.
Any hope of an upset bid for the Bulldogs begins and ends with junior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. He finished second in the SEC in rushing yards in 2016 and scored more rushing touchdowns than any other player in the conference. His 16 scores were just two fewer that the combined touchdown total of Karryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway.
Through the air was another story. Fitzgerald’s downfall was his tendency to try to force plays to happen. As the leader of a pedestrian offense, he found himself in that situation way more often that he would have hoped. As a result he tossed 10 touchdowns but threw 14 interceptions. His 2,423 passing yards were eight best in the SEC, but his yards per attempt (6.7) was 13th best and his completion percent (54.3) was tied for dead last 15 among qualified quarterbacks.
There is a lot of promise with Fitzgerald. Mullen has molded winning quarterbacks in the past. But the talent gap between these two teams is seismic. Auburn wins, and it’s not even close.
Final: Mississippi State 17, Auburn 51 (5-0, 2-0 SEC)
The Rebels are going to be a hard team to figure out this season. They’re serving a self-imposed bull ban and being led by Matt Luke, an interim coach. Neither of those would seem to work in their favor.
Nevertheless, Shea Patterson and the Ole Miss players aren’t going to pack it up and take the season off. This is still football to them, and they have a real chance to play spoiler to the other SEC teams with bigger postseason aspirations. That includes teams like the Tigers.
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Patterson came in to start the final three games of the 2016 and was both poised, and effective. He threw for 880 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions in that span. His first career win came on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. He’s a gamer that’s a threat every time he touches the football.
The sophomore quarterback paired with any combination of receivers Van Jefferson, A.J. Brown and DeMarkus Lodge will be a challenge for every SEC defense. The Tigers are going to give up some points in this one, but so will the Rebels. Ole Miss finished dead last in the SEC in scoring defense a year ago, surrendering a whopping 34.0 points per game. That was all-but double Auburn’s defensive average of 17.1 points per game.
Final: Ole Miss 35, Auburn 42 (6-0, 3-0 SEC)
A lot can change in a year. Someone was getting fired following the result of the LSU and Auburn game on September 24, 2016. With time literally running out, LSU quarterback Danny Etling took the snap, rolled right and found tight end Thaddeus Moss in the right corner of the endzone for what appeared to be the game winning touchdown.
The crowd was stunned. LSU fans cheered, but then the official step onto the field to address the crowd, saying, “After review, the ruling was that the offense did not get the snap off prior to the….” You couldn’t hear the end of the setence, just like you couldn’t hear the conversation that took place later that week removing long time LSU head coach Les Miles of his duties.
Coach Ed Orgeron will be a new face on the other side of the field, but the rosters are still composed of many of the same players. LSU will counter the hard running of Kamryn Pettway with last year’s SEC rushing leader, Derrius Guice.
Guice will find the endzone, at least once. That hardly seems like a bold prediction. But it’s how the LSU passing offense fairs that will determine the outcome of this game. The Tigers haven’t come close to a mediocre passing offense in a long time. They have one top 50 passing offense since 2010. Unless Etling has a Heisman worthy season (spoiler alert – he won’t) the Tigers are going to have a hard time hanging with anyone that can top 20 points.
Final: Auburn 23, LSU 10 (7-0, 4-0 SEC)
The most sacked man in the SEC was Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen. Frankly it’s a small miracle that he’s still standing after being brought to the ground nearly three dozen times in 2016, officially. Auburn’s defensive front is going to have a field day with a more experienced, yet still vulnerable Razorback offensive line.
Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams are not going to be easy pieces for the Tigers to replace. However, the guys they do run out on the defensive front won’t be that green. Auburn returns 11 of their 13 leading tackles from a season ago, which if you’re doing the math, is everyone except for Lawson and Adams.
The trenches will be manned in 2017 by tackles Dontavius Russel and Derrick Brown in the interior with Marlon Davidson and Jeff Holland handling the outside spots. Holland is the weak link, replacing Lawson, but he’ll be bolstered by the covey of physical playmakers around him on the Auburn front seven.
Gone are days when the Razorbacks would control the time of possession battle and occupy the clock with 13 play, 10 minute drives. The offense has skewed much more pass heavy in recent seasons. And it won’t help that last year’s leading rusher Rawleigh Williams III has made the decision to retire from football in lieu of injury concerns.
When it comes to evaluating the talent on each of these rosters it’s clearly a battle of the “haves” and the “have nots”. Don’t expect the Razorbacks to do anything spectacular, even though it’s on their own turf.
Final: Auburn 47, Arkansas 24 (8-0, 5-0 SEC)
This is one of the more bizarre non-rivalry rivalries that has developed since the SEC expanded in 2012. The Aggies and the Tigers have met five times, and the home team in the series is a shocking 0-5. This year’s game is in College Station. Tradition, which the Aggies are all about, dictates the Tigers will come out on top.
Outside of home field advantage (or disadvantage in this case) the Tigers seem to stack up favorably across the board. The most curious cross field comparison comes at the quarterback position. Texas A&M was considered by most to be the most likely final destination of new Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham. The Baylor transfer wound up at Auburn, but only after interest from the Aggies all but dissipated over night.
More: 2017 game by game predictions for Texas A&M football
Aggie head coach Kevin Sumlin is squarely on the hot seat. He knows that one of the biggest deficiencies of his tenure at Texas A&M, outside of the November swoons, has been his staff’s inability to coach up a quarterback.
Sumlin road Manziel for two seasons, then experimented with the mess that was the Kenny Hill, Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray fiasco before moving on to stopgap transfer quarterback Trevor Knight. Whomever it is under center on November 4, this could be a make or break game for the Aggies. A win here might be the biggest home victory of Sumlin’s Aggie tenure and could save his job. It’s just too much to ask. Auburn takes an early lead and holds off the Aggies down the stretch.
Final: Auburn 40, Texas A&M 35 (9-0, 6-0 SEC)
Georgia is five or six wins away from being the second most successful SEC program of the last decade. Their inability to win that one game that mattered most was what saw former head coach Mark Richt get fired two years ago. His successor, former Alabama coordinator Kirby Smart, went a modest 8-5 last season. That might work at South Carolina or Mississippi State, but that won’t cut it for very long at UGA.
The Bulldogs were picked to finish right at the top of the SEC East with the Florida Gators and have the pieces to take a step forward this season. They boast one of the most terrifying offensive backfields in the SEC. The running back duo of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb will give the Tiger defense all they can handle while sophomore quarterback Jacob Eason looks to be the final piece of the offensive puzzle for the Dawgs.
Last season Georgia beat Auburn without scoring an offensive touchdown. The Tigers scored one, but it was ultimately a third quarter Maurice Smith interception return that sealed the game. There are going to be more points this year, but not much. This will once again be the battle of two run-heavy offenses with uncertain quarterback situations.
By the end of the 2017 campaign the rust should have fallen off of both of these second year passers. Stidham and Eason could very well be two of the top five passers in the SEC. By the time they meet on the field in late November they’ll have nearly a full season of experience under their belt. Someone is going to have to lead a game winning drive against one of the SEC’s better defenses. My money is on Stidham.
Final: Georgia 16, Auburn 17 (10-0, 7-0 SEC)
It would be completely understandable for the Tigers to be looking ahead at the final week of the regular season if they make it to this game within reach of an SEC title. Coach Gus Malzahn will say all the right things. He’ll coach speak his way to making the media believe that they’re “taking it one game at a time” and they “won’t take anything for granted”. He’ll say the Warhawks are a “quality football team” that “has played really well this season.”
Don’t buy it. Don’t buy any of it.
ULM played two underclassmen quarterbacks last year and neither was all that effective. They combined to throw 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The running game wasn’t very good either. Leading rusher Ben Luckett reached just 450 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. The Warhawks ended the season 4-8 with the No. 110 offense in the country. On the other side of the ball, they held their opponents to less than 30 points just three times all season.
Auburn is going to go out their and take care of business. They could roll out of bed on November 18 (after hitting the snooze button repeatedly) and wipe the floor with this Sun Belt squad. The Tigers will spend the entirety of this week of practice preparing for the all-important Iron Bowl against Alabama the following weekend.
Sure, they’ll put in a scheme or two that they want to practice (for the Alabama game), but the Tigers aren’t going to have any trouble with ULM. That sets up what could be an All-SEC play-in-game to reach the College Football Playoff.
Final: Louisiana Monroe 0, Auburn 49 (11-0, 8-0 SEC)
It won’t be without some close calls, but this year’s Auburn football team has the makings of a true championship contender. Winning out in the SEC isn’t easy, but it can be done. All you need is a few fortuitous bounces and an elite quarterback. Stidham looks to fill the latter, whether or not the first will come to pass remains to be seen. The kick six can’t happen twice, right?
Very few coaches have battled with Nick Saban and come away with a victory. Six, actually. That’s the number of active FBS coaches with at least one victory over Saban. Malzahn is in that elite circle of victors. It’s always hardest the first time, right?
Alabama’s defense suffered heavy attrition this offseason to the NFL Draft. They’ll reload, just like they always do, with a bevy of new 5-star studs. By the time the Iron Bowl rolls around they’ll look like seasoned NFL veterans. But this new group of Bama defenders might be missing one critical element that made the 2016 squad so effective. Luck.
That’s right, even the mighty Crimson Tide needed a little bit of luck last season. Alabama scored 11 defensive touchdowns in the regular season. You don’t do that without elite level talent and situational awareness. Still, it’s shocking that they were able to amass that many defensive scores in the first place. It’s not going to happen again in 2017. They’ll get a couple, but not 11.
The Crimson Tide found ways to make that back-breaking defensive touchdown to put a game out of reach for good. Jalen Hurts is a great quarterback. He has Bo Scarbrough behind him and Calvin Ridley split out wide. But he’s not used to playing from behind often. This year it’s Auburn’s turn for the lucky bounce, and they’ll take advantage of it.
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Final: Alabama 31, Auburn 35 (12-0, 8-0 SEC)
I know. I know it’s blasphemy to pick against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama fans will take this back to their message boards and roast me for being “biased” and “uneducated” – both points are false. The truth is this: Alabama has been both lucky and good over the past decade. They’re going to be one of the best teams in the country this season. However, this is the year of the Tiger.