TCU Football: 2017 season preview, predictions

Here is your 2017 TCU football preview complete with predictions. Can Gary Patterson get his team back on track after a disappointing 2016 season?

The TCU fans have become accustomed to a certain lifestyle, and that lifestyle does not include losing. The Horned Frogs have only had three losing seasons in Gary Patterson’s 16 seasons at the school. The 2016 season was his second such season in the last four years.

Possibly the most impressive thing about Patterson’s tenure at TCU is not just the infrequency of losing seasons, but what he does immediately following them.

In 2004, the Horned Frogs finished 5-6 in their final season in Conference-USA. The next season TCU went 11-1 and won the Moutain West Conference with a perfect 8-0 record in their first season in the league.

After a 4-8 effort in 2013, Trevone Boykin led the Horned Frogs to a 12-1 mark the next year, had them just outside the first College Football Playoff, and won the Peach Bowl in blowout fashion.

Last season, Patterson was forced to not only replace his star quarterback but had just two starters back on offense. The offense was predictably much worse under Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill. Despite having far more returning experience, a few injuries to the secondary made the defense take a step back too.

In fairness to Patterson and the Horned Frogs, they fell below .500 because of a Liberty Bowl loss to Georgia 31-23, and that was far from their only one-score defeat. They dropped double-overtime games to Arkansas and Texas Tech at home by three points each. TCU fell to Oklahoma by just six after scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to just a field goal with over five minutes to play.

Can TCU get more consistent play and flip a couple of those coin flips in their favor this season?

Offense

The TCU offense was going to be worse in 2016. There is no alternate universe where a team can return only two starters and put up similar numbers. This is even more true when one of the losses is the best quarterback your program has ever had. Trevone Boykin left with the school records for career passing yards, completions, and touchdown passes.

TCU was a middling Big 12 offense last season. They averaged 31 points per game, which was 52nd nationally but 8th in the Big 12 and 11 points off their total the previous year. Their total yards per game were down 100, to 463. Most of that came from the decline in the passing game.

Senior Kyle Hicks returns this season as the starting running back after a 1,042-yard, 12-touchdown year.

The Horned Frogs also bring back their top nine pass catchers. Although, it’s debatable whether Kenny Hill and his coaches are happy with that continuity. The Frogs’ dropped more balls than any other team last season. Hicks had the most catches on the team last season with 47 and was third on the team in receiving yards.

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Preseason All-Big 12 selection Austin Schlottman anchors an offensive line with four seniors and a sophomore that played in 12 games as a true freshman.

Will Hill be ‘Trill’?

It is somewhat unbelievable Kenny Hill is even on TCU if you flashback to the beginning of his career. Hill was supposed to be the next big thing at Texas A&M after Johnny Manziel. Many people called him “Kenny Football” as an ode to his predecessor.

After one start, “Kenny Trill” was born. Hill threw for 511 yards and three touchdowns while completing 73.3 percent of his passes in a 52-28 win at No. 9 South Carolina. Unfortunately for Hill and the Aggies, that was the high point.

Worsening play, including a propensity for interceptions, and an arrest for public intoxication spelled the end for Hill in College Station.

In his first season leading the TCU offense, Hill was productive. He threw for 3,208 yards with a 61.1 completion percentage. He also ran for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns. Regrettably, the interceptions followed him from A&M. Hill threw for 17 touchdowns against a league-worst 13 interceptions.

There are definitely reasons to believe his senior year will be better for Hill beyond the obvious of another year of experience. First, there is almost no way the receivers drop more than 35 balls again.

X-factor KaVontae Turpin was banged up last season but is a key weapon for Hill when he is healthy. Turpin was named to the Preseason All-Big 12 team as a kick and punt returner.

Finally, Patterson brought in former Cal coach and Air Raid offense expert Sonny Dykes as an offensive analyst and consultant. If you’re going to run the offense and can’t get Mike Leach himself, Dykes is the next best thing.

Defense

TCU could have used a defensive juggernaut last season to make up for their rebuilding offense. The defensive-minded head coach Gary Patterson could not work that magic though.

The defense gave up 28 points per game and 427 total yards per game. Those marks were fourth and second in the defensively-inept Big 12, but 64th and 73rd in FBS. This continued a defensive descent from 2014 in which they gave up just 19 points per game.

The Horned Frogs were worse across the board except when it came to sacks. The 43 the defense recorded tied for the most of any team Patterson has coached at TCU. Unfortunately, last season’s sack leader Josh Carraway, who finished with eight sacks and five more QB hits, graduated. Defensive tackle Aaron Curry, who recorded 5.5 sacks from the inside, is also gone. Mat Boesen is the leading returning edge rusher. The senior had six sacks last season.

TCU had to deal with injuries to their secondary but are rewarded this season with a deep stable of experienced defensive backs. Jeff Gladney started eight games at cornerback for the injured Julian Lewis as a redshirt freshman. Senior safety Nick Orr was rewarded for his team-high four interceptions last season with a preseason All-Big 12 selection. He was also third on the team in tackles with 86.

Monsters in the Middle

Patterson’s defense is anchored by two tackling machines at linebacker. Travin Howard has racked up 100 tackles each of the last two seasons. In 2016, the senior had 130 to lead the Big 12. Junior Ty Summers finished second on the team and second in the Big 12 to Howard with 121. Summers bested Howard in tackles for loss and pass breakups. Howard was named to the Preseason All-Big 12 team this year.

2017 schedule

Final Thoughts

There seem to be three clear tiers to the Big 12 (four if you give Kansas their own tier in the basement). The top tier consists of the two Oklahoma schools. Oklahoma is the favorite even without Bob Stoops, but Oklahoma State is a close second. The next tier is made up of teams that have varying but decent shots of making it into the Big 12 Championship game and spoiled Bedlam Part 2. Kansas State, Texas, and TCU are definitely in this tier. West Virginia is at the bottom of this tier depending on how good you think Will Grier can be without a defense.

TCU is fighting this group of two or three other schools in the upper middle class of the Big 12 to climb the ladder back to the upper crust of Big 12 society. The problem for the Horned Frogs is to make the leap it’s going to take some wins in hostile lands.

The Big 12 media voted TCU fifth in their preseason poll. Bovada set their win total at 7.5. ESPN’s FPI is high on the Horned Frogs. The model sets them at 8.7-3.7 but has TCU favored in every game except one.

Next: College Football: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017

Prediction: 9-3, 6-3 Big 12

Gary Patterson will learn a lot about his team in just the first four weeks. Playing at Arkansas in Week 2 after last year’s heartbreaking loss will be a good measuring stick. The game against Oklahoma State in Week 4 will show if they are destined for something more special.

The schedule really is doing TCU no favors. If you flip the sites of a few games, TCU would be a good pick to win the conference. Having to go to Stillwater and Manhattan and Norman is just too many good teams on their own turf.

Ultimately, Patterson will continue his streak of turning around losing teams. The Horned Frogs will be comfortably bowl bound, but will not repeat that 2014 magic.