After a big sophomore season, Oregon football’s Royce Freeman had a rough 2016. Here are five reasons why Freeman will rebound to win the Heisman.
As a true freshman, Royce Freeman supplanted Byron Marshall as Oregon’s starter in the backfield. Marshall, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2013, was moved to receiver to accommodate the talented recruit. Freeman instantly rewarded the Ducks with 1,365 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. In the process he became the first true receiver to rush for at least 1,000 yards at Oregon and broke the true freshman rushing mark in the Pac-12.
He followed up a strong 2014 season with even bigger numbers in 2015. With Marcus Mariota graduated, Freeman picked up a bunch of the offensive slack. As a sophomore, Freeman rushed for 1,836 yards and 17 scores while adding another 348 receiving yards and two TD catches. His biggest game came against Washington State, as the Cougars gave up nearly 300 total yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns to Freeman alone.
Royce Freeman looked like a Heisman candidate entering his junior season. Then Freeman’s fortunes mirrored those of Oregon as a team in 2016. The talented runner was hampered by injuries that limited his effectiveness. As his numbers plummeted, so to did the wins for the Ducks.
For a while it seemed as though Royce Freeman would depart Eugene and declare for the 2017 NFL Draft. Then the running back announced in December that he would return to UO for his senior season. The return was a boon for new head coach Willie Taggart, who gets another dangerous offensive weapon to bolster his chances of a quick turnaround in Eugene.
Here are five reasons why Freeman will rebound all the way to the Downtown Athletic Club in December and join Mariota as the second Heisman winner in Oregon history.
5. Freeman is healthier after nagging injuries hindered 2016 season
Against Nebraska, Royce Freeman injured his right knee early in the Nebraska game on September 17. It was a scary loss for the Ducks, who ultimately fell 35-32 despite rushing for 336 yards in Freeman’s absence. He was also out for the 41-38 loss at home to Colorado on September 24. But he only missed those two games, returning at the beginning of October to put up 138 yards and three rushing touchdowns against Washington State.
It wasn’t like Freeman was necessarily bad in 2016. Including his performance in the Cougars defeat, Freeman posted five 100-yard efforts and scored 10 total touchdowns. But he seemed tentative at times on his knee, and was not quite as explosive as he performed during his sophomore season. He also suffered a chest injury in October that further hampered his ability to perform at a high level.
The Oregon star led the team in rushing in 2016, but he failed to break the 1,000-yard mark for the first time as a Duck. After a full offseason to rest and recondition his knee, Freeman should return to the level of play that allowed him to emerge as one of the best running backs in the Pac-12 as an underclassman.
With Mario Cristobal serving as the new co-offensive coordinator in charge of the rushing attack, Freeman looked strong in the retooled ground game through spring practices. A healthy 2017 campaign in a refocused Oregon running attack will propel Freeman back among the nation’s top running backs.
4. Freeman will develop a better rapport with Justin Herbert
As a sophomore, part of Freeman’s emergence as one of the nation’s most dangerous backs was his improvement as a receiver. Working well with Vernon Adams Jr. in 2015, Royce Freeman averaged over 13 yards per catch. Developing as a valuable safety net out of the backfield, Freeman also proved adept at running wheel routes and caught multiple passes in all but three games.
He looked ready to break out in 2016 again as a receiver, catching two passes for 29 yards in addition to a season-high 209 rushing yards against Virginia in early September. Injuries limited his effectiveness, but as the year progressed Freeman developed a solid rapport with true freshman quarterback Justin Herbert.
The one downside was a dropoff in terms of yards per catch, as there were fewer wheel routes and more desperation dumpoffs. In the last three games of 2016, Freeman caught 14 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown in addition to posting three straight 100-yard rushing efforts. After a full spring and fall with co-offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo and the rest of the new offensive coaching staff, the duo should be even more confident working together.
Look for Freeman to post some big receiving marks this year. He could notch at least one 100-yard receiving effort as he becomes a more complete weapon from the backfield. He could easily top 500 receiving yards and get at least a half-dozen touchdown catches to go with similar rushing numbers as he put up in 2015.
3. The Ducks bring back a more experienced offensive line this year
Royce Freeman was certainly not quite as explosive for most of 2016 as he was prior to his injury. It certainly didn’t help, though, that the Ducks started multiple redshirt freshmen along the offensive line. That was partially due to graduations after 2015, and partially due to injuries to starters early in the season.
The biggest loss was left tackle Tyrell Crosby, who played in just 18 offensive snaps last season as he was eased into the season. An injury early against Nebraska knocked Crosby out for the rest of the 2016 campaign, though, and that forced an already-young offensive line to take up even more responsibility.
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That helps to explain the plummet to 4-8 and the drop in rushing yards for the Ducks. Freeman looked less explosive in part because he had fewer places to explode. No other Oregon rusher put up better marks behind the retooled line, after all. But the growing pains of 2016 could make for a really good offensive line in 2017, especially with three redshirt sophomores returning after starting all 12 games last year.
Crosby is also back for his senior season, another boon for the coaching staff. With former Alabama offensive line coach Mario Cristobal now in Eugene as the team’s co-offensive coordinator, the unit should improve almost immediately. With bigger holes opening up in front of him, Freeman will look as explosive as ever. He might lead the nation in runs of 20 yards or more in 2017 and could top two dozen rushing touchdowns behind this line.
2. Oregon’s record in 2017 will help keep Freeman in spotlight
In large part, the perception of a team has a drastic impact on a player’s Heisman campaign. Royce Freeman entered 2016 as a bona fide Heisman hopeful after posting nearly 2,200 yards of offense as a sophomore on a 9-4 team. Then injuries, both personally and to the offensive line, hampered Freeman’s hopes of winning the award before they could really take flight.
Only one player has won a Heisman Trophy on a team with a losing record. That was Notre Dame’s Paul Hornung in 1956. The inaugural winner, Jay Berwanger of the University of Chicago, won the inaugural trophy back in 1935 on the Maroons’ .500 team. And only one other player, Oklahoma’s Steve Owens in 1969, won the Heisman on a team with as many as four regular-season losses.
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Oregon projects to be an eight or nine-win team in 2017. If they manage to steal one or two wins as a clear underdog, Royce Freeman will almost certainly play a major role in those upsets. A Ducks team that gets to nine or even 10 wins would be a team right in the thick of the Pac-12 hunt for most of the year.
Returning to national relevance would make Heisman voters keep an eye on Eugene. Along with Washington’s Jake Browning, the Pacific Northwest will have several Heisman hopefuls. If Oregon is still at or near the top of the Pac-12 North when the Ducks head to Seattle for the rivalry game against the Huskies on Nov. 4, Freeman will be right in the thick of the Heisman race.
1. Freeman’s NFL Draft potential offers motivation to put up big numbers
Royce Freeman returned to Oregon for his final season of eligibility in part because he didn’t want to leave Eugene on such a low note. The plummet to 4-8 was rough for Freeman to swallow. In a recent interview with The Oregonian, he said, “We sent the seniors out on a bad note and we don’t want to be that class going out that way.”
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But pride for his school was only one factor. Though he was eligible to declare for the 2017 NFL Draft, Freeman tanked his draft stock with his injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Some team would surely have taken a flyer on the high-round talent with a late-round pick. As such, Freeman had millions of reasons to return to Eugene for a second chance at bolstering his pro prospects.
After headlining awards watch lists in 2016, Freeman was originally kept off the preseason Doak Walker Award watch list before belatedly being added to the list of top running backs in the nation. Somehow, Freeman has crept under the radar and become an overlooked talent. He needs to post big numbers and restore his place near the top of the national charts to improve his draft status heading into spring 2018.
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And as we all know, big numbers translate to big-time Heisman hopes. As long as Freeman stays healthy and grows into a more complete back with the Ducks, he will take his position as one of the best running backs in the FBS. With pride and a shot at the pros on the line, Royce Freeman will put up numbers that force Heisman voters to look westward for their next winner.