With the 2017 college football season quickly approaching, lets evaluate 5 potential upset games that could rock the Big Ten power rankings.
Everyone loves a good upset, unless it’s against their favorite team.
Whether it’s Appalachian State upsetting Michigan in 2007, or Pitt’s last-minute upheaval of Clemson in 2016, the thrill of watching a team of underdogs take down a collegiate Goliath is second to none.
Going into the 2017 season, the Big Ten looks to be one of the most competitive conferences in all of college football. It’s totally conceivable that as many as four of the conference’s teams, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin, could be in contention for a playoff berth deep into the month of December.
That is, unless they get upset.
As teams begin to schedule more competitive out-of-conference games early in the season, it’s becoming increasingly more difficult for anyone to run the table and ensure themselves a spot in the college football playoffs.
This challenge is especially true for the Big Ten, who have a number of high-profile out-of-conference games highlighting the first month’s schedule. Winning these games could serve as a major resume booster for teams on the playoff bubble, but losing them could also eliminate a team from contention before conference play even begins.
Similarly, as the Big Ten’s heavyweights prepare to play each other throughout the season, it’s possible that they could lose a trap game to a lesser squad. While a team like Wisconsin may not see Iowa as much of a challenge, that game could be circled on Iowa’s schedule all season, and prepare the entire season for this one game.
In this piece, we will examine five potential upset games in the Big Ten this season, and see how they could affect the power rankings.
5. Michigan vs. Florida (Sept. 2) in Arlington, Texas
Michigan’s week one game against Florida could seriously define the Big Ten East Conference in 2017.
Currently ranked the No. 11 team in the nation by the AP preseason poll, Michigan is one of the three teams fighting for the top spot in the Big Ten East, and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff. However, the Wolverines’ chances of taking third year head coach Jim Harbaugh to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure at Michigan could be dashed as early as week on if the team loses to No. 17 Florida.
Meet The Gators
Florida has been able to quietly build a strong resume over that last two seasons under new head coach Jim McElwain. After muddling through four largely unremarkable seasons under former head coach Will Muschamp, McElwain’s regime has returned hope to the people of Gainesville. His Gator squad has won the SEC East Conference in back to back seasons, and has faced off against Alabama in consecutive years in the SEC championship games.
While most week one games are essentially warm ups before inter-conference play begins, Michigan’s face-off against Florida is anything but a shoo-in. Florida’s defensive coordinator Randy Shannon has built a stout 4-3 defense that utilizes press man techniques to disrupt opposing wide receivers’ routes and force quarterbacks into bad decisions.
Furthermore, Florida also deploys an athletic front seven, with rangy athletic linebackers whom can cover sideline to sideline, and a burly defensive front that can control the line of scrimmage.
In addition to the Gator’s fifth-ranked defense, Florida’s 2017 roster could also potentially deliver McElwain, an offensive-oriented head coach, his first real starting caliber quarterback in senior transfer Malik Zaire.
After suffering through four sub-par starting quarterbacks over the last two seasons, the team now has a dynamic athlete with a cannon for an arm. While Zaire’s ultimate impact on the Gators’ 2017 season is still a mystery, he has without a doubt the most potential of any quarterback coached by Jim in his Florida tenure.
Related Story: Florida Football: Is Malik Zaire a good fit with the Gators?
Why it could be an upset
This is going to be a close game.
Michigan finished last season with the best overall defense in college football. While the team is returning a number of starters in 2017, they will have to grapple with the loss of key pieces like Taco Charlton and Jabrill Peppers.
Rebuilding a defense is almost a yearly chore for the best teams in college football, but for a team like Michigan that could be starting as many as six freshman this season, playing Florida in week one could be a real trial by fire. Coach McElwain has built his reputation on fielding a dynamic offense that can run a variety of plays in quick secession from a variety of sets, paired with a stout defense that punishes opponents.
On offense it will be paramount for Michigan to control the time of possession in what could be a low scoring game. However, unlike many of their Big Ten peers, Michigan will be lacking experience at the skilled positions.
Quarterback Wilton Speight will be entering his second season as Michigan’s starting quarterback and will be joined by wide receivers Dylan Crawford, Eddie McDoom and running back Chris Evans. While this outfit will be playing behind a fairly veteran offensive line, it may take some time to build up the in-game chemistry needed to take on a veteran squad like Florida.
McElwain is so confident in his team’s chances against the Wolverines that he has already guaranteed a victory in Week 1. While his hubris should be admired, it may not be as farfetched as it may seem.
4. Wyoming at Iowa (Sept. 2)
Iowa will be opening the season on Sept. 2 at home against the Mountain West standouts the Wyoming Cowboys.
While facing off against a Mountain West team is typically looked at as an easy win for a Big Ten team, the 2017 Wyoming squad is surprising formidable.
Meet the Cowboys
Wyoming finished the 2016 season with an 8-6 record behind of arm of then red shirt sophomore phenom Josh Allen.
Allen, a prospect who didn’t receive a single scholarship offer coming out of high school, is now considered one of the best quarterback prospects in the entire nation, and is considered a near lock to be selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Josh possesses elite arm talent and the solid build of an NFL starter and could end up being the best quarterback Iowa faces in 2017.
Related Story: Wyoming Football: Is Josh Allen a sure-fire franchise quarterback?
Josh will be asked to lead Craig Bohl’s pro-style offense that utilizes concepts currently foreign to most of college football, like the huddle, two tight end sets and even the fullback. Bohl puts a lot of responsibility on Allen’s shoulders during the game, even allowing his quarterback the luxury of calling audible at the line of scrimmage.
In 2016, Wyoming’s defense was ranked 106th in the nation in total defense. The team struggled to keep opposing offenses out of the end-zone, but hope could be coming in the form of new defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton. Hazelton served as a defensive assistant on Bohl’s North Dakota State team and spent last season as a linebackers coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If he is able to bring some of the professional approach to the Cowboy’s squad it could help the squad win the Mountain West division.
Why it could be an upset
Iowa is building a strong program after spending a few years playing average at best football. The team is built around a tough veteran defensive front seven that can body opposing team at the line of scrimmage. This hard nose defensive helps to keep Iowa in a number of low scoring games, from which the offense’s pro-style power running attack can wear opponents down.
However, Iowa does have an Achilles heel.
Iowa keeps its defense in base formation for almost the entirety of the game. Typically when opposing offenses line up in three, four or even five wide receiver set, the defense will match up by deploying in the nickel formation (five defensive backs) or the dime formation (six defensive backs). These sub packages give the defense a better chance to match up their backs one-on-one, or to place more athletic defenders in zone coverage as opposed to a base 4-3 defense that lines up three linebackers and only four defensive backs.
This pension for the base defense will be challenged in week one, when Kirk Ferentz’s squad will face off against Craig Bohl’s multiple set offense. When evaluating tape, coach Bohl will line up his receivers in the 11 personnel package (three wide receivers, one running back and one tight end) on the majority of plays, but also calls plays out of the trips formation, ace formation and even the empty backfield with four-five wide receivers.
Allen is an incredibly talented quarterback, with great vision, arm talent and a deep understanding of the quarterback position. His able to dissect opposing defenses from the pocket is a coaches dream, and he has the ability to scramble for extra yardage if his receivers are covered. If Iowa isn’t able to match up their defense to better combat the Cowboys offense it will be incredibly hard for Iowa to beat Josh Allen and his Wyoming squad in Week 1.
3. Oklahoma at Ohio State (Sept. 9)
Much like Michigan, Ohio State will be will be challenged early in the season by an non-conference foe.
On Sept. 9, Ohio State, the No. 2-ranked team in the nation, will be facing off against No. 9 Oklahoma at Ohio Stadium. In what is sure to be must-see TV, this game could potentially have a huge impact on the Buckeyes chances of returning to the college football playoffs and the Big Ten conference championship game.
Meet the Sooners
Oklahoma returns one of the most veteran squads in all of college football.
Lincoln Rily’s squad isn’t projected to start a single freshman on offense, and only one on defense. Leading Oklahoma’s offense is senior quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield, a serious contender for the 2018 Heisman Trophy, has led the Sooners to a 22-4 record in his two years as a starter, and this season could be the year he finally pulls it all together for Oklahoma. After ranking ninth in the nation in total passing yards with 3,965 yards, 40 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2016, Baker drew attention from the NFL, before deciding to return to college football to lead his squad for one final season.
The team boasts an impressive stable of veteran ball handlers and highly recruited underclassmen whom could help to optimize Rily’s air raid offense, as well as a veteran offensive line. If the team is going to win in 2017, it surely won’t be because of a lack of offense.
Related Story: Oklahoma Football: Meet college football’s premier fullback Dimitri Flowers
On defense, the Sooners field a newly formed 4-3 defense lead by 11-year veteran defensive coordinator Mike Stoops. Unlike the offense, which finished second in total offense in 2016, Oklahoma’s defense didn’t even finish in the top 50 in total defense. After failing to impress in 2016, Oklahoma made the decision to transition to a 4-3 defensive front, in order to better attack opposing offenses and get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Why it could be an upset
Anytime two top-10 teams face off, it’s going to be a tight competition.
Both Oklahoma and Ohio State have had success in both the passing and rushing games over the last few years, and this trend doesn’t look like it’s going to end anytime soon.
So expect this game to be a high scoring affair.
The one major difference that could turn the tides in this week two game could be the experience factor. Oklahoma’s veteran offense will be facing off against an incredibly inexperienced defense, that included three new starters in the defensive backfield alone. While these players are definitely talented, it seems unlikely that they will be able to mesh well enough as a unit to truly keep up with the Sooner’s air raid attack on a consistent basis so early in the season.
Related Story: Ohio State Football: How can the Buckeyes replace Malik Hooker?
Ohio State’s secondary varies greatly from Oklahoma’s veteran secondary, which boasts three seniors and a sophomore. If Oklahoma new 4-3 defense is even able to be average in the forthcoming season it could be enough for them to win the Big 12 and make the jump to the college football playoffs. And that path runs through Ohio State.
2. Penn State at Northwestern (Oct. 7)
Northwestern is a team on the rise, and could end up stealing a game from Penn State the week before its bye.
After beating Penn State in their last two encounters, Northwestern could bring the streak to three in this season’s Week 6 showdown at Ryan Field.
Meet the Wildcats
Northwestern is entering its 12th season with head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The owner of a 77-62 record in Evanston, Fitzgerald is returning a team that finished an impressive 7-6 record in the Big Ten West.
Leading the Wildcats’ offense is Heisman Trophy hopeful Justin Jackson. The senior running back out of Carol Stream, Ill., is a dynamic athlete, who rushed for 1,524 yards in 2016, and has amassed over 4,000 yards in his first three years on campus. Jackson runs with a unique blend of speed and power and has been the most prolific running back in the Big Ten over the last three seasons.
Making his job easier will be the Wildcats’ offensive line. Fitzgerald’s squad will field a line composed of four upperclassman, including senior starting center Brad North, and a redshirt freshman at right tackle. This line helped Jackson average 5.1 yards per carry last season, and should continue to bully defenders in the team’s power running game.
In the backfield Jackson will be paired with red shirt junior quarterback Clayton Thorson.
After losing quarterback Trevor Siemian to the NFL in 2015, Thorson became the leader of the Wildcats’ aerial attack. After struggling as a freshman, Thorson came into his own as a sophomore, throwing for 3,182 yards on 280 completions. If Colton is able to continue to progress as a passer going into his red shirt junior season it could lead to a more balanced attack, and a better chance of winning.
Why it could be an upset
Northwestern has had Penn State’s number in recent years.
The team has beaten the Nittany Lions twice over the last two seasons, and this season could continue bring the tally up to three.
While Penn State is arguably one of the best teams in the nation, this game looks like a classic trap game. Following the team’s getaway game against Northwestern, the Nittany Lions will be going into a bye week to prepare for their week eight showdown against number two Ohio State.
Related Story: Penn State Football: Is Marcus Allen the Nittany Lions’ next great safety?
This week eight showdown could go a long way to determining the ultimate winner of the Big Ten East Conference, and could set up one of its teams to compete in the college football playoffs. However, this may all be for not if Penn State loses two weeks earlier in Evanston.
1. Penn State at Ohio State (Oct. 28)
As previously mentioned, this game could single-handedly decide the fate of the Big Ten.
Both Penn State and Ohio State have absolutely loaded rosters, so this game would be an upset in name only. Though Ohio State is currently ranked four places higher than Penn State, by week eight their rankings could very well be flipped.
But for the time being lets evaluate just how Penn State could upset Ohio State for the second year in a row, this time in enemy territory.
Meet the Nittany Lions
The 2017 Penn State squad is absolutely loaded with talent.
Coach James Franklin has taken a squad crippled by NCAA sanctions and through smart recruiting built one of college footballs newest potential dynasties.
The focal point of the Nittany Lions’ offense is junior super star Saquon Barkley.
Barkley is a generational talent for Fraklin’s squad; a players capable of attacking opposing defenses with inside runs, outside runs and even as a receiver out of the backfield. Saquon has been timed running a sub 4.4 40-yard dash and squat over 495 pounds at Penn State’s spring max out day, and this combination of strength and speed definitely translates on the field.
Teams have to specifically scheme around Barkley if they want any chance of winning a game against the Lions, but unfortunately for them Saquon is far from the team’s only weapon.
Related Story: Penn State Football: Comparing Saquon Barkley to recent 1st-round RBs
Quarterback Trace McSorley has one of the nation’s best tight ends in senior Mike Gesicki, and a plethora of formidable vertical threats in receivers Saeed Blacknall, Juwan Johnson and DaeSean Hamilton.
On defense the lions are returning a fairly veteran unit.
The team will not be starting a single first year player, and should be able to control the line of scrimmage with an aggressive defensive line. Additionally, the Lions have an athletic linebacking corp, with players like Koa Farmer, Manny Bowen and Jason Cabinda manning the middle of the field.
The defensive secondary is lead by seniors Marcus Allen, a near lock to be drafted in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, and Grant Haley, a tried and true 5-foot-10 cover corner with 34 career games. Their experience in fourth year defensive coordinator Brent Pray’s cover two scheme will be paramount when facing off against spread offenses.
If the Lions are able to continue to progress like they did in the second half of last season another national championship trophy could be finding a home in Happy Valley.
Why it could be an upset
There is an old saying that teams should build their rosters to win their division, and it would appear that James Franklin may have taken these words to heart.
The Lion’s squad is almost perfectly designed to grade out favorably against Urban Meyer’s squad.
A key to slowing down the Buckeyes offense is containing the run, one of the Lions front seven’s specialties. Penn State’s defensive line prides itself on the ability to spill through gaps in opposing offensive lines, and disrupt running backs at the point of attack.
Another key to stopping Ohio State’s offense is containing quarterback J.T. Barrett. His athleticism allows him to escape a collapsing pocket and rush for additional yards on broken plays, but again Penn State has an answer for this in redshirt junior linebacker Koa Farmer.
Related Story: Penn State Football: Is Koa Farmer the Nittany Lion’s secret weapon?
Farmer, a converted safety, is a true sideline to sideline linebacker in the vein of former Ohio State standout Ryan Shazier. Between the consistent pressure delivered by PSU’s defensive line and Farmer’s ability to shadow J.T. on obvious passing downs should make it a lot harder for Barrett to defeat the Nittany Lions with his legs.
On offense, Penn State has one of the best stables of young pass catchers in college football. These wide receivers and tight ends will be facing off against Ohio State’s newly-built secondary, that has three new starters follow a mass exudes of first round NFL talent. While this secondary will have time to mesh over the first half of the 2017 season, the advantage is firmly Penn State’s.
Next: Big Ten Football: Season preview, final standings predictions
Regardless of who is the higher ranked team on Oct. 28th this will be a must see game for any college football fan, and one that could affect all of college football.