One front-runner tumbles, while several teams step up to fill the void. Here are the 10 best Group of Five programs heading into Week 3.
Week 2 offered the opportunity for Group of Five teams to make critical statements as they try to separate themselves from one another in the race for a New Year’s Six bowl game. Some seized the opportunity, others fell completely flat, and then there was the case of Boise State.
The Broncos survived the loss of starting quarterback Brett Rypien to a head injury to take a 31-10 lead on No. 20 Washington State in the last game of Week 2. Bryan Harsin‘s team then allowed 21 unanswered points as the Cougars forced overtime. Trading field goals and then touchdowns in the first two extra periods, it seemed like #Pac12AfterDark might just last until the sun returned.
But after taking down Washington State last year, Boise State could not find the endzone in the third overtime. Last year’s runner-up in the Pac-12 North bolstered its resume by taking down one of the Group of Five frontrunners. Pollsters, though, were less impressed as they dropped the Cougars one spot in the AP Top 25.
As a result of the close loss, Boise State won’t fall completely out of the Group of Five Power Rankings this week. They find themselves in a tie at the bottom of the race, though, and this week we actually have 11 teams on the list. Click ahead to see who else joins the Broncos on the list as we rank the top contenders for a New Year’s Six bowl heading into Week 3.
Another huge win over a Power Five school was there for the taking. Boise State had built up a 31-10 lead by the fourth quarter despite having to turn to backup quarterback Montell Cozart early in the game. All the Broncos had to do was kill some clock and get a few stops against the Cougars and they would have completed their fifth straight win over Pac-12 opponents.
Instead, things turned sour as Mike Leach’s team began working frantically downfield on offense. After also having to turn to their backup quarterback, the Cougars got 240 yards and three touchdowns from Tyler Hilinski. The sophomore completed 25 of his 33 attempts and ameliorated the loss of Washington State’s career passing leader, Luke Falk.
Once the game went to overtime, it was already effectively lost for the Broncos. But they can also make the Les Miles-style claim that they are undefeated in regulation. Step back in time a few decades, and this game would have ended in a tie at any point prior to 1996. So it is hard to fault Boise State too much.
They do, however, take a big fall down the Group of Five rankings after ceding leadership in the Mountain West to two-time defending champion San Diego State. Bryan Harsin’s team still has everything available to it this season, but for now they sit down the hierarchy of teams in the New Year’s Six race.
Joining Boise State on the bottom end of the Group of Five Power Rankings this week is Colorado State. The Rams began the season with a resounding win over Oregon State in Week 0, building up hype for Nick Stevens in the process. Then Colorado State fell flat in their follow-up game, the annual Rocky Mountain Showdown against Pac-12 rival Colorado at Mile High Stadium in Denver.
After falling to 1-1 in the season standings, many jumped off the Rams bandwagon. But the Buffaloes loss doesn’t erase the fact that Colorado State already has one win over a Power Five opponent. Once they pulled back above .500, it became tougher to continue penalizing the Rams for their neutral-site defeat against the defending Pac-12 South champions.
The most recent win helped restore confidence in Fort Collins. Stevens threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against FCS Abilene Christian, while Izzy Matthews and Dalyn Dawkins combined for 172 yards on the ground. Wildcats quarterback Dallas Sealey was able to complete two-thirds of his passes for 258 yards, but the Rams prevented any touchdown throws and nabbed an interception.
The Rams now have a huge opportunity ahead of them. Colorado State heads to Tuscaloosa to face No. 1 Alabama this week. If they can take down Nick Saban’s powerhouse Crimson Tide squad, Colorado State would vault up the Group of Five Power Rankings. They could still stay in the top 10 even if they lose, if they can manage a strong showing in defeat.
Navy moved quietly to 2-0 on Saturday as they took down Tulane 23-21 at home. The Midshipmen are not quite as dynamic as last year’s AAC West champions, but they could still overtake teams like Memphis and Houston in head-to-head showdowns this season. Ken Niumatalolo‘s team features another strong running game with their triple-option offense.
The schedule has not been that impressive yet, with Navy taking down Florida Atlantic 42-19 in Week 1 and Tulane last week. But they did also play two FBS schools, whereas many Group of Five contenders faced FCS programs in one of their first two weeks. And the Midshipmen have the advantage of back-loading their shot at a Power Five statement with their trip to Notre Dame in November.
Zach Abey has looked decent in his first full season as the starting quarterback for Navy. Abey ran for 235 yards and two scores against Florida Atlantic, then turned around and added another 108 rushing yards against the Green Wave. He has gone just 7-of-22 passing, but he is also averaging 11 yards per attempt in the air. Navy will never be a pass-heavy team under Niumatalolo, but Abey has shown the ability to hit receivers downfield when necessary.
At this point, the season is wide open for Navy. While Memphis and Houston remain the favorites in the AAC West, the Midshipmen cannot be discounted. They have a bye week before closing out the month with games against Cincinnati and Tulsa, two teams that provide legitimate tests for where the Middies are at moving forward.
Given their recent string of misfortune, it feels odd to list Eastern Michigan among the mid-major contenders in this week’s edition of the Group of Five Power Rankings. Before going 7-5 in the regular season last year and reaching the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl, the Eagles hadn’t reached postseason play in three decades. Those seven wins in 2016 equal Eastern Michigan’s total from the previous four seasons combined.
But with Brogan Roback at quarterback, Eastern Michigan will be a legitimate threat to spoil the day in the MAC. Last week the Eagles took down Rutgers in Piscataway, admittedly not that tough a test these days but a Power Five victory nonetheless. Roback threw for 260 yards and a touchdown in a battle otherwise dominated by defense, as EMU returned home with a 16-13 win.
After a bye in Week 3, Eastern Michigan finishes its month of September with a conference test against interdivisional opponent Ohio. The Eagles should be 3-0 when they head to Lexington at the beginning of October for their only Power Five test of the year, a showdown with Kentucky that could feature two unbeaten schools.
The MAC is solidly among the top three conferences in the Group of Five. Now Eastern Michigan is among the better teams in the league. They control their own fate in 2017, with games against Toledo and Western Michigan likely to help decide the MAC West. If the Eagles reach the conference championship in Detroit, they will have a legitimate shot at a New Year’s Six bowl.
Hawaii is one of the few teams in the country that has already managed to play three games. The Rainbow Warriors fell in their most recent test, a 56-23 loss at the Rose Bowl to UCLA, but they had already established themselves among the better Group of Five teams in the country over the first long week of the new season.
In Week 0, Hawaii opened its season with a too-close-for-comfort win over Massachusetts. The Rainbow Warriors came away 38-35 victors despite giving up over 400 yards of offense to the Minutemen. That was thanks in large part to quarterback Dru Brown, who threw for 391 yards and three touchdowns against UMass.
Brown hasn’t been quite as good in his two follow-ups to that performance, though. In the home opener versus FCS Western Carolina, Brown went just 11-of-21 for 154 yards and threw two interceptions to go with his two touchdown passes. He actually performed better against UCLA last weekend, completing over 60 percent of his passes once again for 227 yards and another pair of scores.
Losing to UCLA is not the end of the world, especially with the Bruins rising up into the national rankings. It was, however, the only chance for Hawaii to claim a statement win over a Power Five school. Lacking that resume booster could prove costly when it comes time to determine which Group of Five school lands the automatic New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Like several other teams in this week’s Group of Five Power Rankings, UCF was sidelined by Hurricane Irma in Week 2. As a result, they missed the chance to take on Memphis in a de facto New Year’s Six elimination game. Nevertheless, the Knights look more and more like a legitimate contender in the American Athletic Conference.
UCF throttled Florida International in their season opener, taking down the Golden Panthers 61-17 in Orlando. Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton was 16-of-21 for 360 yards and four touchdowns, while backup Noah Vedral completed 10 of his 12 attempts for another 79 yards in the air.
The ground game also got into the scoring mix. Though the backfield averaged just 3.3 yards per carry as a team, UCF added another four rushing touchdowns to go with Milton’s passing scores. The Knights defense also forced three fumbles and an interception, preventing FIU from having any chance at a comeback.
In addition to the canceled Memphis game, UCF’s Power Five test at home against Georgia Tech was also canceled this weekend. Scott Frost‘s team will not take the field again until September 23, when they head to Maryland to face a quickly-improving Terrapins team. If they can get a statement win over a Big Ten program, they will jump into the top five of the Group of Five Power Rankings.
Houston completely understands how the Florida schools feel. The Cougars also lost a prime chance to boost their record when their season opener at UTSA was canceled by the approach of Hurricane Harvey earlier this month. That meant that the Cougars had to wait until their trip to Tucson to start their 2017 campaign.
The result against Arizona made it all worth the wait. With Greg Ward Jr. now graduated, Kyle Allen took over at quarterback and completed over three-quarters of his passes for 225 yards and a touchdown. But Allen also threw two interceptions that kept the game far closer than it needed to be.
Dillon Birden and Duke Catalon combined for 161 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries, averaging over five yards per carry against a Pac-12 defense. The Cougars also clamped down on Arizona when the Wildcats had the ball. Brandon Dawkins and Khalil Tate combined to go 22-of-37 for 219 yards and an interception. Arizona’s running game averaged just 3.9 yards per carry at home. And if not for a pair of late Arizona field goals, the margin of victory would have been larger.
Ultimately, though, Houston did enough to claim a statement win in its belated first contest of the new year. After falling out of last week’s Group of Five Power Rankings, the Cougars gave notice that they will be in the thick of the New Year’s Six battle once again this season.
Though they were not personally in the path of Hurricane Irma, the storm nevertheless impacted Memphis in Week 2. The Tigers were slated to travel to Orlando to take on UCF in both teams’ American Athletic Conference opener. Now the game will likely be canceled, leaving Memphis in a similar situation to other Group of Five schools that lost a critical data point in the New Year’s Six race.
At this point, we don’t really know much about the Tigers. Returning starter Riley Ferguson looked mediocre (at best) throwing the football against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 1. The quarterback completed just 10 of his 25 passing attempts against the Warhawks, throwing for less than 100 yards.
He has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season, though Ferguson does have one interception to his name. Instead, Mike Norvell relied on a punishing ground game to take down ULM in the opener. Darrell Henderson rushed 12 times for 169 yards and two scores. Patrick Taylor Jr. also topped 100 yards rushing, with 15 carries for 131 yards and a score.
Ferguson punched in a touchdown on a run as well, as the Tigers finished with 319 rushing yards and four touchdowns in their only game so far in 2017. The level of competition rises when UCLA comes to the Liberty Bowl this weekend. Memphis has an opportunity to take down one of the hottest Power Five programs of September, but Ferguson will need to be much better to pull off the upset.
After Western Michigan lost its second straight game against Power Five competition, Toledo became the undisputed favorite in the MAC West this year. The Rockets are now 2-0 after taking down Nevada in Reno on Saturday. It wasn’t the most dominant of performances, but it was a quality win for a Toledo team angling at getting the MAC back to a major bowl game for the third time in six seasons.
That stat is noteworthy. While we often think of the American Athletic Conference or the Mountain West as the preeminent Group of Five league, the MAC has quietly posted some of the best seasons in recent memory. Toledo has been on the cusp of greatness in recent seasons, and this could be the Rockets’ chance to take the next leap to New Year’s Six contender.
In their first two games, the Rockets have averaged 42 points per game against Nevada and FCS Elon. Starting quarterback Logan Woodside has put up relatively quiet numbers in the two victories. With 38 completions on his first 58 passes of 2017, Woodside has averaged 273 yards per game and 9.4 yards per attempt while throwing two touchdowns.
Tulsa comes to the Glass Dome on Saturday, hoping for their own rebound in the New Year’s Six race. The Rockets also get a chance to snag a Power Five statement when they play at Miami on September 23.
In the Group of Five race for a New Year’s Six berth, a statement win over a Power Five program is always a resume booster. San Diego State took advantage of their first of two opportunities against Pac-12 schools, knocking off Arizona State 30-20 on the road in Week 2.
The victory was fueled by Aztecs running back Rashaad Penny. Stepping in for FBS all-time leading rusher Donnel Pumphrey this season, Penny has looked just as dynamic as his predecessor. After putting up 197 yards and two touchdowns against FCS team UC-Davis, Penny followed up with a 216-yard performance against the Sun Devils. He added another 38 yards on four receptions, and scored a touchdown by ground and by air.
On the other side of the ball, the San Diego State defense held Sun Devils running back Kalen Ballage to less than three yards per carry. Ballage finished with 44 yards and a score on 15 rushes. Even more impressively, the Aztecs held the other Arizona State runners to a net of zero yards on 16 more carries.
Now the Aztecs turn their attention to an opportunity to face an AP Top 25 team at home. No. 19 Stanford travels south to San Diego this weekend, giving Rocky Long‘s team a second straight chance for a big statement against the Pac-12. If they win this weekend, they could leap up into the top spot in these rankings.
South Florida missed out on its chance to move to 3-0 this weekend, as the approach of Hurricane Irma led to the cancellation of all but one football game featuring Florida schools in Week 2. The Bulls prepared for the storm instead of heading to Connecticut, and it appears that the conference showdown against the Huskies will not be rescheduled.
Thus the Bulls miss out on one data point compared to other Group of Five programs. Quinton Flowers also lost a chance to bolster his Heisman credentials. And the questions that arose after two less-than-exemplary efforts in their opening two games still remain for USF.
Now they turn around to face an Illinois team that has improved greatly in its second season under head coach Lovie Smith. Though the Illini offered to swap the order of their home-and-home series, it appears the game will still be played in Tampa. The Friday night contest will provide the first college football action in Florida since Irma made landfall.
Next: Can a 1-loss teams be a Playoff contender?
If they hope to remain atop the list of Group of Five contenders, South Florida will need to emerge from its doldrums and make a statement against their Big Ten opponent. With teams like San Diego State charging hard up the rankings, USF’s grip on the top of the Group of Five Power Rankings is not as strong as it was before other teams made statements last weekend.