Every Pac-12 team is in action against one another this weekend. Which five favorites will have the biggest risk of going on upset alert in Week 7?
After the past few weeks, there are no bye weeks for Pac-12 teams. As a result, we have a full slate of conference battles both divisional and interdivisional. That means we actually have to eliminate a couple of teams from our weekly look at the top five Pac-12 teams on upset alert.
Who goes, though? Out of six favorites, the one whose betting line keeps trending upward and upward is Washington State in its showdown with California. The Golden Bears are suddenly being disregarded completely after a 3-0 start out of conference was followed by three straight Pac-12 defeats.
Last year the Cougars romped to a 56-21 win over Cal. This time around, Washington State is the No. 8 team in the country and a threat to make the College Football Playoff field if they continue their winning streak. The Golden Bears, meanwhile, seem like a team that feasted on vastly overrated non-conference opponents and is finding life in the Pac-12 much more difficult.
That can be said about several of the Pac-12 teams on this list, but in every other case there is a legitimate reason or two to see at least a glimmer of upset potential. In this case, Mike Leach’s team looks like a lock. Oddsmakers are desperate to sweeten Cal betting, as they bumped the line up from an opener of Washington State +12.5 to +15 over the past few days.
Here is the order of the other five Pac-12 teams that could be on upset alert this week. (All point spreads courtesy of Sportsbook Review.)
Oregon State is a team in disarray. After leaving Wisconsin for the Beavers less than three years ago, Gary Andersen walked away from the head coaching position in Corvallis following a dismal 1-5 start and little hope of turning things around. In two and a half seasons at Oregon State, Andersen was just 7-23 after showing promise at Utah State.
After taking the Badgers to a Big Ten championship game his second year in Madison, Andersen returned west in a strange transition from Big Ten powerhouse to Pac-12 lightweight. The rebuilding project never actually rebuilt a broken program, as Oregon State continued to languish at the bottom of the North standings.
Andersen’s loss comes at a rough time for the Beavers, though, as they will enter one of their hardest divisional showdowns of the year with an interim coach in Cory Hall who has never even served as a coordinator. But there are a few building blocks that could spring an upset, beginning with a strong special teams unit and including a solid offensive line.
Colorado also has issues with discipline, as they take eight penalties that cost 67-plus yards per game. If Oregon State can rally its beleaguered program, the emotions could carry the team to an upset over the defending Pac-12 champs at Reser Stadium.
No. 5 Washington heads to the desert this weekend for another #Pac12AfterDark thriller. They will square off against an Arizona State team that already has one upset win over an AP Top 25 team this year, after taking down then-No. 25 Oregon 37-35 in September. The Huskies are a 17.5-point favorite as of midweek, but this could be the weekend they slip up in a trap game.
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Neither team is going to beat itself, at least. Even more so than Washington, the Sun Devils are playing largely mistake-free football. That could help them win a Pac-12 showdown against a heavy favorite. Arizona State averages 3.8 penalties and fewer than 38 penalty yards per game, ranking among the top dozen teams nationally and first in the Pac-12.
Todd Graham’s team has also managed to protect the football, averaging only one turnover per game. If the defense can find a way to snag a fortuitous takeaway or two, it will level the playing field immensely against a College Football Playoff contender.
Crazy things tend to happen in the desert when the sun goes down and the lights turn on. Washington will be on upset alert as it heads south for another late-night showcase.
Stanford and Oregon was among the biggest rivalries in the country for a short while, as the two schools annually competed for the Pac-12 North title in the aftermath of expansion. The winner of the contest won the first four Pac-12 championship games. Stanford won the league in 2015, as Oregon knocked the Cardinal out of College Football Playoff contention.
This year Stanford hosts the Ducks in the Bay Area as a 10.5-point favorite. While Oregon struggled to defeat against now-No. 8 Washington State last week, the Cardinal offer a much more winnable opportunity for the Ducks. Justin Herbert is out with a fractured collarbone, but Oregon still has a formidable backfield chock full of rushing talent.
After a rough start to his college career, freshman Braxton Burmeister gets more receiving talent back this week. Both Dillon Mitchell and Charles Nelson return from injury for the new quarterback’s second career start. Against a struggling Stanford defense that ranks 90th in rushing defense and 100th in passing yards allowed, the Ducks could generate another blowout.
On the other hand, Oregon’s defense ranks second in the Pac-12 as the group allows fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground. If they can bottle up Heisman contender Bryce Love, the Ducks have a great shot at putting Stanford on upset alert this weekend.
At home this weekend, No. 13 USC faces a Utah team that just dropped out of the polls. The Utes stumbled against Stanford last week in a three-point defeat. Even so, Kyle Whittingham’s team can reestablish itself as a Pac-12 South contender if they deal the Trojans a second loss this season.
The result could determine which team takes on the Apple Cup winner in December for the Pac-12 crown. While USC has pretensions of playing in the College Football Playoff, they will first need to get past one of the stingiest teams in the country. After showing promise last season, the Utes are points to make their own run for the league crown.
USC is posted as nearly a two-touchdown favorite against the Utes. If USC’s defense can force Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold into another rough outing this year, a defense allowing fewer than 19 points per game will put USC on upset alert.
While Utah goes on the road this week, they have the potential to make Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum feel like home. The Utes are in position to reclaim leadership of the Pac-12 South, as the Trojans struggle to move effectively against one of the most deceptively strong teams in all of the nation.
UCLA has been a hot-and-cold darling all season. The Bruins have also flown by the seat of their pants. They will head to Arizona as putative one-point favorites on Saturday, but Jim Mora’s team needs to beware the same desert mojo that could strike down Washington on the road as well. Even though the betting line is small, UCLA looks like the better team far and away — at least on paper.
With quarterback Josh Rosen throwing for over 425 yards per game, it is no wonder that UCLA is considered a favorite. But that also tends to ignore both the present and historical trends of what takes place in the desert. We have already seen Arizona State take down one favorite at home, and the Wildcats will look to follow in their state rival’s footsteps.
The Wildcats will also hope to take advantage of what are sure to be more UCLA penalties. The Bruins rank at the bottom of the national charts in both penalties and penalty yards per game. If UCLA can’t learn to control itself and show more discipline, that could lead to a big upset for Arizona.
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UCLA could still compete for the Pac-12 if the Bruins continue to win. The trip to Tucson is never easy for any team, as many an upset has been sprung at Arizona Stadium. If everything plays right, the Wildcats might be celebrating another takedown of a highly-ranked opponent on Saturday night.