The College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first set of rankings on Tuesday. Here are our projections for the committee’s first Top 25.
This week we shift focus from the AP Top 25, as the College Football Playoff selection committee prepares to release its first rankings of the 2017 season on Halloween. In this new era of FBS history, the AP and Coaches polls take a backseat to the CFP committee’s Top 25 rankings.
The group of selectors are going to have a hard time sorting out the mess after a Week 9 slate that saw multiple undefeated teams sustain their first losses of the season. Penn State and TCU entered the weekend looking to consolidate a place in Playoff position, while South Florida was among the Group of Five contenders. All three suffered defeats and will be penalized as a result.
With all the chaos swirling around the college football world on the last weekend of October, the committee must now parse through the muddled field of contenders and pretenders before Tuesday. Who will emerge atop the list and in the four Playoff positions in the first CFP Top 25 release of the year? Keep reading for our projections of where everyone will land on Halloween.
Missing out on a chance to stay in the Big Ten East race, Michigan State fell 39-31 in triple overtime at Northwestern on Saturday afternoon. The Spartans lost their second game of the season despite outgaining the Wildcats by over 100 yards on offense.
Brian Lewerke had the biggest passing day of his career in the losing effort, throwing for 445 yards and four touchdowns as he completed more than two-thirds of his 57 attempts. The ground game struggled, though, as key tailback LJ Scott finished the day with just 16 rushing yards. The Michigan State defense held Northwestern to 64 rushing yards, but gave up 368 yards through the air as they fell in Evanston.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will still probably rate the Spartans among the Top 25 in their initial rankings on Tuesday. With Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule over the next two weeks, Michigan State could still make its way into the Big Ten title game if it gets back to winning ways.
As the top team in the MAC this season, Toledo is lurking in the wings for the Group of Five’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Rockets moved to 7-1 with a 58-17 takedown of Ball State on the road on Thursday night. They will likely make their first appearance in the 2017 polls this week as the College Football Playoff selection committee puts them in its first Top 25 of the season.
It was an uneven performance for the Rockets despite the big margin of victory. Logan Woodside threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns, but he finished under 50 percent on just 8-of-17 passing. Toledo finished with over 600 yards of total offense, though, as the backfield racked up 335 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
The November slate will determine whether Toledo gets into position for a MAC title. Northern Illinois comes to the Glass Bowl next weekend in a showdown of MAC West contenders, and they also have the advantage of playing Western Michigan at home to finish the regular season.
In South Bend on Saturday, NC State had few answers for Notre Dame as they fell 35-14 on the road. Unable to find much room to move the ball against the Fighting Irish defense, the Wolfpack dropped their second game of the season. But because Notre Dame is an independent team, NC State still remains atop the ACC Atlantic standings and control their own destiny in the conference.
Ryan Finley finished just 17-of-37 for 213 yards, with a touchdown and an interception through the air. The Wolfpack managed just 50 rushing yards on two dozen carries, faltering against the Irish front seven. Meanwhile, the NC State defense held Brandon Wimbush in check passing the ball. But they were unable to contain Josh Adams on the ground, as the running back finished with 202 yards on the day.
Next week’s home game against Clemson is pivotal for the Wolfpack’s chances in the College Football Playoff race. A win over the defending ACC and national champions would all but seal up the division for NC State this year and push them up the CFP Top 25. For now, though, Dave Doeren’s team will be among the last teams in the initial release on Tuesday.
After surviving a shootout in Houston in Week 8, Memphis made short work of Tulane this weekend in a 56-26 blowout on Friday night. Now 7-1 on the year, the Tigers control their own fate in the American Athletic Conference race and could play their way into a New Year’s Six invitation.
Riley Ferguson was superb in victory, throwing for 298 yards and three scores on 18-of-31 passing and adding another two rushing touchdowns on four carries. The Tigers finished with 259 rushing yards and four scores on the ground, averaging 8.1 yards per carry as a team. The ground game was led by Darrell Henderson‘s 112 yards and Tony Pollard‘s 76 yards as they rolled to a big margin of victory.
Their only loss so far this year came on the road against UCF, and Memphis could have a chance to gain revenge if the two meet in the AAC championship game. While a College Football Playoff spot is out of reach for the Group of Five team, Memphis needs only to beat Tulsa, SMU, and East Carolina to play for the league title and a chance at a major bowl game.
For most of the Thursday-night showdown in Corvallis, Stanford was on upset alert against Oregon State. The Beavers were playing hungry in prime time under interim head coach Cory Hall, and held a 14-9 lead late in the game. A late touchdown pass by Keller Chryst ultimately separated the two teams by a single point, though Stanford still needed a game-sealing interception to prevail 15-14.
In large part Stanford struggled for most of the night after sitting Heisman hopeful Bryce Love with an ankle injury. The flat performance by the Cardinal might have bolstered Love’s Heisman campaign, but it will also hurt David Shaw‘s team in terms of where it lands in the first College Football Playoff rankings this season.
Stanford held serve atop the Pac-12 North standings after its narrow win. How the CFP selection committee chooses to view the flat performance is another question. The Cardinal will likely be in the high teens, right about where they will also be in the AP Top 25, when the first CFP rankings are released this week.
After losing to Troy on the last day of September, LSU was left for dead in the national picture. But Ed Orgeron’s team surged back to take a 6-2 record into its bye week, as the Tigers once again look like a spoiler threat in the SEC West.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will certainly have the Bayou Bengals in their first set of rankings. Where they put them in the Top 25 this week is one of the biggest mysteries heading into the Halloween release of the rankings. Orgeron’s crew is hot now, but November will determine where they ultimately end up in the bigger picture.
A statement opportunity looms on the first weekend of November, as LSU heads to Tuscaloosa to face top-ranked Alabama. If the Tigers win that contest, they already hold a tiebreaker over Auburn in the division standings. and could be a surprise participant in the SEC championship game. The Playoff will be hard to reach without upsets in other leagues, but LSU is back in control of its own fate.
Michigan earned its sixth win of the season on the road at Rutgers, taking down the Scarlet Knights 35-14 on Saturday. Defense fueled the winning effort, as the Wolverines held Rutgers under 200 total yards of offense. Though the Big Ten title is likely out of reach, the Wolverines could be playing their way into New Year’s Six contention.
The Wolverines also got a big day out of its backfield, as both Karan Higdon and Ty Isaac rushed for over 100 yards. As a team, Michigan finished with 334 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters also took over at quarterback, finishing 10-of-14 for 124 passing yards and his first college touchdown.
With one of the toughest schedules to date in the entire country, the College Football Playoff selection committee could look favorably on the Wolverines. Michigan will also benefit from the chaos that took place around the rest of the country, and could be in the Top 25 of every poll after this weekend.
Nick Fitzgerald finished with 246 total yards of offense, throwing for 141 and running for 105 to lead Mississippi State to a 35-14 takedown of Texas A&M on the road. The Bulldogs moved to 6-2 and became bowl eligible after the big win in College Station, and will likely feature in the first edition of this year’s College Football Playoff Top 25 on Tuesday.
Mississippi State’s defense came up big against the Aggies, holding Kellen Mond and Nick Starkel to 189 passing yards with one touchdown and three interceptions as they combined to go 16-of-41 on the day. Texas A&M’s backfield was contained as well, with the Bulldogs outgaining the Aggies 228-96 on the ground.
Next week’s game against UMass won’t do much to move Mississippi State further up the CFP rankings in Week 10, but they get a statement opportunity in two weeks when Alabama comes to Starkville. While they are unlikely to get back into the SEC West race, the Bulldogs could help decide the division as a spoiler if they win out.
Iowa State, of all teams, now controls its own fate in the Big 12 race after knocking off TCU at home on Saturday. The Cyclones became the first team since LSU in 2011 to take down two teams in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 in a single month, after they clamped down on the Horned Frogs offense in a 14-7 upset in Ames.
Taking on a College Football Playoff contender, the Cyclones defense stymied the Horned Frogs. TCU finished with 135 yards in the air, as Kenny Hill completed fewer than half of his passing attempts and threw two interceptions. Iowa State managed just 53 rushing yards, but they got 202 yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Kyle Kempt to steal victory.
Now bowl eligible for the first time in five years, Iowa State has bigger goals in its sights after leaping to the top of the Big 12. The College Football Playoff selection committee could push the Cyclones up into a top-15 position when the first rankings are released on Tuesday.
Auburn took a bye ahead of the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings with a 6-2 record. The Tigers could move up higher than their No. 19 position in the AP Top 25 thanks to all the chaos that took place around them in Week 9.
Outscoring opponents by nearly three touchdowns per game through the first eight weeks of the season, Auburn has been winning with both offense and defense. They have also been incredibly disciplined, ranking first in the SEC with the fewest penalties per game. Sitting a game behind Alabama in the SEC West, the Tigers could still make noise in the national picture.
They will probably end up in the low to mid teens this week when the CFP selection committee gets together to deliberate. Gus Malzahn’s crew has just one road game left on the schedule when they head to Texas A&M next weekend. Georgia and Alabama also loom on the schedule, and if the Tigers win out they could factor into the Playoff picture this year.
Against an overmatched FCS opponent, UCF moved to 7-0 in a 73-33 whitewashing of Austin Peay. The win will push them into position as the top-ranked Group of Five team in the first College Football Playoff rankings when they come out on Tuesday, thanks to the loss by American Athletic Conference rival South Florida.
UCF’s blowout was fueled by ultra-efficient passing performances from starter McKenzie Milton and backup Noah Vedral. The duo combined to go 28-of-31 for 347 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Though nobody gained more than Vedral’s 37 rushing yards, the Knights also racked up five rushing touchdowns against the Governors.
The selection committee will likely put the Knights somewhere in the mid-teens in their first set of Top 25 rankings this week. A spot in the Playoff will be a longshot for UCF, but they are now the undisputed frontrunner for the Group of Five’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl.
No undefeated teams remain in the Big 12 after TCU stumbled on the road in a 14-7 loss against Iowa State. Entering the weekend, the Horned Frogs looked ready to play their way into a top-four spot in the first College Football Playoff Top 25 of the season. Now Gary Patterson‘s team is no longer in complete control of its fate.
The defense did its part, holding Iowa State to just 255 yards of offense and two touchdowns. TCU’s running game got going as well, with Darius Anderson gaining 95 yards and Kyle Hicks adding another 80 yards on the ground. But Kenny Hill struggled as he finished 12-of-25 for 135 passing yards and two interceptions in the upset in Ames.
Next week, Texas comes to Fort Worth ahead of a road swing against Oklahoma and Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs could still play their way into the Playoff picture, but the CFP committee will have no sympathy for TCU this week.
USC came out and rebounded after its loss at Notre Dame, taking a 31-3 lead into halftime on the road at Arizona State. Tempe has been a trap for many teams this year, but the Trojans dominated the Sun Devils and look ready to move to 7-2 on the year.
Sam Darnold threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns in the first two quarters, while running back Ronald Jones II racked up 120 yards and a score on the ground. It was a masterful performance by Clay Helton‘s team, as they jumped out to a huge lead and remain on pace in the Pac-12 South race.
As long as they stay ahead in the second half, USC will jump up somewhere in the teens of the first College Football Playoff rankings. After the past few years, when teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma have jumped up from the teens into a Playoff spot, the initial rankings of the year could be a blessing in disguise for the Trojans.
Josh Jackson broke Michael Vick‘s record for most passing yards in a season by a Virginia Tech freshman, surviving the rain in Blacksburg for a 24-3 victory over Duke. Jackson finished the day with 200 passing yards and a touchdown, adding another score on the ground for good measure. The Hokies defense held the Blue Devils to 183 total yards of offense and forced two turnovers in the win.
The Hokies moved to 7-1 on the year, and as a result Justin Fuente‘s team kept within a game of Miami in the ACC Coastal race. Over the next two weeks, Virginia Tech heads to Florida to take on the Hurricanes and then plays at Georgia Tech. Both games will help decide which team plays in the conference championship from the division.
The one thing going against Georgia Tech as the College Football Playoff selection committee deliberates on Sunday is strength of schedule. For now they will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-teens, but a move up into Playoff contention is possible if the Hokies keep winning in November.
After Josh Rosen was knocked out of the game for UCLA, all Washington had to do was control the clock as it romped to a 44-23 victory at home. With the win, the Huskies should push up into the Top 10 of the first College Football Playoff rankings when they are released this week.
Jake Browning was 8-of-11 passing for only 98 yards and an interception, but he did not need to have a good game thanks to a prolific performance by the backfield. The Huskies got 169 rushing yards and a touchdown from Myles Gaskin. Lavon Coleman added 94 yards and three rushing scores. Even Browning had a rushing score as the Huskies finished with 333 yards on the ground.
November games against Stanford and Washington State will determine whether Washington gets another chance to play for the Pac-12 title this year. If they win out and take the conference crown, another trip to the College Football Playoff is definitely possible for Chris Petersen’s team this season.
Oklahoma State took out West Virginia, winning a 50-39 shootout in Morgantown to keep pace in the Big 12. The Cowboys will open in the Top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings this week after a big win fueled by their backup running back.
Starter Justice Hill went to the locker room with an injury on Oklahoma State’s first series of the game, though he did return later for 86 yards and two scores. J.D. King stepped up in Hill’s absence and made short work of the Mountaineers defense. Finishing with 142 yards and a touchdown, King kept the offense churning downfield. Mason Rudolph offered balance through the air, going 20-of-34 for 216 yards and three scores.
The win put Oklahoma State into a four-way tie in the Big 12 standings. They have a chance to take charge in the conference race with games against Oklahoma and Iowa State over the next two weeks, and could make a potential run at a Playoff spot if they keep winning big.
Penn State had the potential to jump up into the top spot of the first College Football Playoff Top 25 with a win over Ohio State in Columbus. Then they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, giving up 19 points in the fourth quarter as the Buckeyes pulled off a 39-38 comeback at home.
The Nittany Lions started off strong, with Saquon Barkley returning the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown out of the gate. They were up 28-17 on the road at halftime, and looked ready to threaten the Crimson Tide for poll positioning. But Barkley was otherwise contained, rushing for just 44 yards and gaining just 23 more through the air as Penn State crumbled down the stretch.
With the loss, the Nittany Lions fell behind Ohio State in the Big Ten East and no longer control their own fate. A New Year’s Six spot is in reach, and they could still get to the Playoff with more chaos. But for now, the CFP selection committee is going to slide the Nittany Lions into the high single digits of its first rankings of the season.
Defending national champion Clemson took down Georgia Tech 24-10 on Saturday, moving to 7-1 and setting themselves up for a shot to retake the lead in the ACC Coastal next weekend. In the process, the Tigers also made a case to become the highest-ranked team among those with one loss in the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday.
The Tigers defense was not flustered by Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense, as they held one of the top rushing teams in the country 175 yards below its season average. Kelly Bryant was back to his prolific self at quarterback for Clemson after being hobbled in the Syracuse loss, throwing for 207 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for another 67 yards in the win.
Next week the Tigers head to Raleigh to face ACC Coastal leader NC State. If Clemson can win on the road and take over the division lead, they are positioned to repeat as ACC champions and return to the College Football Playoff if they can win out from there.
Oklahoma fell behind early at home against Texas Tech, but eventually pulled away for a 49-27 victory to move to 7-1 on the season. The Sooners remain in the thick of the Big 12 race as well, thanks to TCU’s upset at Iowa State earlier on Saturday.
Baker Mayfield failed to reach 300 passing yards for the first time in October, finishing with 281 yards against the Red Raiders. But he still threw four touchdown passes, and added a rushing touchdown for good measure. Rodney Anderson led the ground game with 181 yards and a score on two dozen carries.
They will also benefit from Ohio State’s upset of Penn State when the College Football Playoff committee deliberates in advance of its first Top 25 of the season. Lincoln Riley’s team will certainly sit in the top 10 in the first set of rankings, though they will likely be behind the Buckeyes team that they took down in Columbus back in September.
Jonathan Taylor was held to just 73 rushing yards, the lowest single-game total in the true freshman’s young career. It didn’t matter, though, as the Badgers took down Illinois 24-10 on the road to move to 8-0 on the season. Now Paul Chryst‘s team needs just two more wins to seal up the Big Ten West, thanks to tiebreakers over Northwestern and Nebraska.
Wisconsin’s defense allowed just nine completions by the Illini on 31 passing attempts, and held Illinois under 300 total yards of offense on the day. They also forced three turnovers by Illinois quarterback Jeff George Jr. on two interceptions and a forced fumble. It was a workmanlike effort by a Badgers team that has been putting up solid if unspectacular performances this season.
How will the College Football Playoff selection committee rate the Badgers, who have played a middle-of-the-road schedule? Even though they are hovering in the top five of the AP Top 25, Wisconsin could open a few spots lower in the first CFP rankings of the season.
It was an ugly victory, but Miami still moved to 7-0 on the season with a 24-19 win over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Entering the weekend at No. 8 in the AP Top 25, it will be interesting to see how the College Football Playoff selection committee treats the Hurricanes in its first rankings of the season.
Malik Rosier threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns in the win, but he also went just 16-of-38 and tossed a pick. Miami continues to struggle running the football after the injury to Mark Walton. North Carolina held the Hurricanes to 59 total rushing yards on Saturday. The Canes were outgained on offense by the Tar Heels, but UNC couldn’t hold on to an early lead at home.
Will CFP deliberators give the Hurricanes the benefit of the doubt? They are still perfect on the year, but Miami’s past four wins have all come by a single score. We will learn more about Mark Richt‘s team in the next few weeks as they host Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in early November play.
Through the first three quarters of their home game against Penn State, the Buckeyes looked dead in the water. Down by 15 points entering the fourth quarter, J.T. Barrett put Ohio State on his shoulders and willed his team to a 39-38 comeback win over the Nittany Lions.
Barrett was 20-of-26 through the first three quarters. He was a perfect 13-of-13 in the final frame as the Buckeyes engineered the surprise turnaround. Finishing with 328 yards and four touchdown through the air, Barrett added another 95 yards on the ground to bolster his Heisman campaign and put Ohio State in position to win the Big Ten East.
With their lone defeat coming against Big 12 contender Oklahoma, Ohio State is right back in the running for the College Football Playoff. The CFP selection committee will likely slot the Buckeyes into its top six this week thanks to the statement win over Penn State, though they will need to navigate a November slate that includes games against both Michigan schools to reach Indianapolis.
Notre Dame might have played its way into one of the four College Football Playoff slots when the selection committee releases its first Top 25 of the season this week. The Fighting Irish took down NC State, the No. 14 team in the AP Top 25, by a 35-14 scoreline in South Bend on Saturday to move to 7-1.
Josh Adams led the way for the Irish, rushing for 202 yards and a touchdown to pace the win. Brandon Wimbush was just 10-of-19 for 104 passing yards, though he threw for two touchdowns and ran in another. The Notre Dame defense was stout, holding NC State to just 50 rushing yards and fewer than 300 total yards of offense.
Given their independent status, Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. They still have Miami and Stanford to play in November as well, which will boost their ranking further should they keep winning. With only a one-point loss to Georgia the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record, the Irish should be in the top five of the CFP rankings this week.
Georgia could be right behind Alabama in the first College Football Playoff Top 25 of the season after routing Florida in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party on Saturday. The Bulldogs blew out the Gators, nearly getting a shutout in the 42-7 mismatch to move to 8-0 on the season.
Jake Fromm attempted just seven passes all day, completing four for 104 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He still outgained Florida’s quarterbacks, as Georgia held Malik Zaire and Feleipe Franks to 66 yards and a pick on 10-of-25 passing. Sony Michel had 137 yards and two scores on just a half-dozen carries, while Nick Chubb added another touchdown and 77 yards on the ground.
Thanks to upset losses by several other teams this week, the Bulldogs are poised to move up a spot in all of the polls. The CFP selection committee will be impressed by Georgia’s body of work, and they still have games against South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech to consolidate Playoff position.
Alabama will surely stay atop the AP Top 25 after a bye week, but will the College Football Playoff committee follow suit? The Crimson Tide have been one of the most dominant teams in the country, but there are few things going against Nick Saban’s team in the deliberations.
That opening win against Florida State seems less and less meaningful with each passing week as the Seminoles continue their fall from contender to pretender. The SEC as a whole isn’t as strong as it has been in past seasons. If anything, the most impressive wins for Alabama might be their takedowns of Mountain West contenders Fresno State and Colorado State.
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The Crimson Tide will surely be one of the top two teams in the country. But after remaining sidelined the weekend before the CFP committee deliberates for its first rankings of the season, Alabama could open at No. 2 instead of claiming the top spot they occupy in every other major poll.