UCF is the last undefeated Group of Five team this season. What would it take for the Knights to make the College Football Playoff in 2017?
In Week 9, three more undefeated teams suffered their first losses of the 2017 college football season. Ahead of the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, it was the worst possible time to drop a game.
Among the biggest losers on Saturday was South Florida. The Bulls entered the season as the favorite to win the Group of Five berth into a New Year’s Six bowl game. Now only one mid-major team remains unbeaten heading into November.
UCF has taken charge of the Group of Five race as the clear frontrunner to land in a major bowl game. The Knights enter the final month of the regular season needing only to keep winning to land an invitation to a major postseason showdown. As long as they win the American Athletic Conference, they will land in either the Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl, or Fiesta Bowl.
It wouldn’t be the first time that UCF played in a major bowl game. Remember, they took advantage of their first season after realigning from Conference USA to the Big East to win the league title. Though they weren’t officially a BCS Buster, they were the closest thing in the final year of the BCS as they earned the Big East’s last automatic berth before it rebranded as the American. They capped the Cinderella season with an upset of Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl
But could the Knights aim even higher this season?
Along with UCF, only four other FBS teams still sport perfect records. Alabama, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Miami will all surely enjoy the benefit of the doubt in the popularity contest that is the College Football Playoff selection process. Even one-loss teams like Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Washington would probably get a longer look from the committee than a perfect Knights squad.
So what exactly would it take for Scott Frost‘s team to land in one of the four coveted College Football Playoff semifinal slots? We have seen surprising results from mid-majors in the past. Had the four-team playoff system existed in 2009, for instance, TCU — then in the Mountain West — would have faced Alabama in one of the two semifinal contests.
We’ve also seen surprise mid-majors pip powerhouse programs for a major bowl berth. In 2012, Northern Illinois took advantage of late-season chaos to become a BCS Buster and earn a trip to the Orange Bowl.
So in this week’s edition of Sunday Morning Quarterback, let’s dive in and look at just what it would take for UCF to achieve the ultimate goal. Keep reading to see what must transpire for the Knights to land a spot in the Sugar Bowl or the Rose Bowl this year.
1. UCF must stay undefeated en route to the AAC title
First and foremost, UCF cannot sustain a loss in November. Depending on when and where it happens, a loss wouldn’t be the death knell for the Knights’ chances of reaching a New Year’s Six bowl game. But the ceiling would immediately become a trip to Glendale, Arlington, or Atlanta rather than Pasadena or New Orleans.
At this point, a loss would be more costly than if it had come in September or October. When NIU made it to the Orange Bowl back in the BCS days as a one-loss team, their defeat came in the season opener against Iowa. A loss now would come in conference play, which would effectively end not only any longshot dream of a College Football Playoff berth but also even a shot at a New Year’s Six game.
Especially since the Knights lost a chance to play Georgia Tech due to Hurricane Irma, there is even less margin for error this season. For any chance of the improbable to happen, UCF must first hold up its end of the bargain. Five more wins stand between the Knights and a chance at the ultimate prize. Step one is winning out against SMU, UConn, Temple, South Florida, and whichever team makes it out of the AAC West this season.
2. UCF must keep putting up the top offensive numbers in the FBS
Entering Week 9, UCF ranked at the top of the FBS in scoring offense, averaging more than 47 points per game through their first six wins. They ranked sixth nationally in total offense, as they racked up more than 536 yards per game through the first half-dozen contests of the year. They also give up fewer than one turnover per game, with five giveaways through the six games.
Those numbers were right on line with how they performed against FCS Austin Peay. UCF racked up 519 yards and once again kept from giving up a turnover to their opponent. The Knights took down the Governors 73-33, boosting their scoring average for the season. It was yet another impressive performance from Scott Frost’s team, on line with the productivity of the former Oregon offensive coordinator’s teams back in Eugene.
UCF needs to keep up the productivity. The surest way for a Group of Five team to remain in the national picture is by putting up huge offensive numbers. Not only will racking up points galore keep the Knights undefeated, but it will also earn style points from a selection committee that has proven itself subjective in its decision making over the first three years of the College Football Playoff.
3. Every other team must fall from the ranks of the unbeaten
As was mentioned earlier, there are only five undefeated teams left in the FBS. UCF is one of those teams, of course, and the other four are all Power Five schools. Only three of the four have the possibility to finish the year unbeaten, as Alabama and Georgia are on a collision course to meet in the SEC Championship Game. One would definitely sustain a loss should they meet in Atlanta.
But UCF can’t wait for December for the rest of the unbeaten squads to lose their perfect records. A LSU victory over the Crimson Tide in Week 10 would give the Knights a big boost. If South Carolina dealt Georgia a loss next week, all the better for UCF’s shot at a College Football Playoff berth. Virginia Tech also has the chance to take out Miami this weekend, while Indiana gets another chance at an upset when they host Wisconsin.
If LSU can’t knock off the Tide, perhaps Mississippi State or Auburn can do the trick. Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech could also take down Georgia. Wisconsin will still have to play Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota before the end of the regular season. And Miami could easily take a loss (or two or three) when they play Notre Dame, Virginia, and Pitt after the Hokies.
4. UCF needs to close season with big wins over Top 25 USF and Memphis
UCF needs to root for the best possible matchups in the regular-season finale against South Florida and in the American Athletic Conference championship game. That means rooting for the Bulls to get back to winning ways ahead of their Black Friday trip to Orlando, and for Memphis to land the AAC West berth in the title game.
What gave Northern Illinois a boost into the Orange Bowl five years ago was the fact that they got to take down a ranked Kent State team in the MAC championship game. Three years before that, TCU had the advantage of playing ranked BYU and Utah teams in Mountain West play to bolster its position in the polls and the BCS standings. In both cases, these matchups against highly-regarded opponents boosted the strength of schedule.
That boost meant that neither the Huskies and Horned Frogs could be ignored in the national picture. Usually the knock against Group of Five teams is that they have played a weak schedule that is undeserving of a chance at a national title. For UCF, getting to play two ranked teams in a row to end the regular season would be a boon to their credentials that would definitely grab the attention of the College Football Playoff selection committee.
5. A few Power Five favorites need to lose conference championships
Even if all of these other factors fall into place for UCF, a spot in the College Football Playoff is hardly a guarantee. What would really push them over the top is for several favorites to lose their shot at the title by losing to heavy underdogs in the respective Power Five conference championship games on the first weekend of December.
Back in 2012, the perfect storm launched Northern Illinois into position to take advantage of automatic-qualifying stipulations for mid-majors. UCLA fell to Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game, Wisconsin blew out Nebraska for the Big Ten title, and Kansas State felled Texas at the last hurdle. Those losses sent surprise conference champions to major bowl games, and opened the door for the Huskies to go to Miami to play Florida State.
For that to happen this season, teams like Wisconsin would need not only to lose, but to lose to a team other than Ohio State or Penn State. Imagine a scenario where Michigan State pulls off the surprise and lands in the title game in Indianapolis. The Big 12 championship game could see several two-loss teams play one another. Imagine also if LSU were to face a one-loss Georgia team in the SEC championship and win, and the Pac-12 championship featured two-loss Stanford and Arizona.
UCF needs several of these upsets to transpire to further clear the path for a surprise invitation into one of the semifinal games.
Final thoughts on the possibility of a UCF Playoff berth
Ultimately, the ceiling for even an undefeated UCF team is probably a New Year’s Six game at the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl. Making the College Football Playoff would require a confluence of events that would bring even greater chaos to an already chaotic season.
But such a surprise would not be unprecedented. We have seen favorites fall by the wayside before, and in the 10th anniversary of the shocking 2007 season it would be only fitting for another round of flux to take place.
Even if they make the College Football Playoff, there is no guarantee that UCF can become the first mid-major to win a national championship since BYU took the crown in 1984. In the modern era, after all, a potential champion must win two postseason contests rather than just one. The stakes are higher and the odds are longer than they were when LaVell Edwards and his Cougars shocked the country.
Next: Looking back at the chaos of the 2007 college football season
But the door is not completely closed on a possible shot at reaching the semifinals. A lot must fall perfectly into place, but the 2017 season has hardly fallen into perfect form for many of the favorites so far. For fans of Cinderella stories in sports, UCF still has a (long) shot of becoming the next historic mid-major in a sport that is increasingly designed to shut out those opportunities.