USF Football: Game-by-game predictions for 2017

Zach Bigalke

(Photo by Jason Behnken / Getty Images)

USF football has dreams of reaching a New Year’s Six game. Click ahead to see how the Bulls will fare in each game on their 2017 schedule.

The 2017 South Florida squad looks similar to last year’s team in many ways. Quinton Flowers, one of the nation’s best dual-threat quarterbacks, returns to pilot a loaded Bulls offense. Middle linebacker Auggie Sanchez returns as the leader of a maturing defense. While they lose three-year starting running back Marlon Mack, senior D’Ernest Johnson will finally get his chance to emerge from Mack’s shadow.

Of course, they have to adjust to a brand new coaching staff. Willie Taggart, the architect of South Florida’s recent success, is now the head coach at Oregon. The Bulls landed Charlie Strong, who fizzled at Texas but dazzled at Louisville. He should be able to bolster the defense this season, and he will let the offense do what it does best.

South Florida is an 11-2 team that missed a chance to play for the American Athletic Conference title. USF was in the hunt for a New Year’s Six berth until Temple ended their perfect record in Philadelphia. That kept the Bulls from playing in the AAC championship game, and without a league title they were not in line for the Group of Five’s automatic berth.

This year USF hopes to take that next step in Strong’s inaugural season in Tampa. The former Florida defensive coordinator knows the state well, and his staff should have little trouble with a solid core of players this year. Click ahead to learn more about each South Florida opponent, and to see our game-by-game predictions.

The Spartans lost two-year starter Kenny Potter at quarterback. They do, however, return eight defensive starters and seven guys on offense from a team that finished 4-8. Head coach Ron Caragher was sacked after going 19-30 in four seasons.

In comes new head coach Brent Brennan, formerly the recruiting coordinator at San Jose State under Mike McIntyre. Once McIntyre left San Jose, Brennan bounced to Oregon State. He spent the last six years as the receivers coach under Mike Riley and Gary Andersen. Now he has landed his first head coaching gig back with his old employer.

Brennan knows what it takes to build a successful team in San Jose. But it will take time, and a school that gave up nearly 35 points and 250 rushing yards per game is going to have another rough season, veteran defense notwithstanding.

PREDICTION: South Florida 45, San Jose State 17 (1-0)

Though the Spartans have a reasonable hope for improvement in 2016, it will not come at the expense of South Florida. Look for the Bulls to enjoy their trip to the Bay Area with a runaway first half. Strong will scale things back and focus on developing depth in the second half after the Bulls get a four-score lead.

Sometimes FCS schools can knock off upper-division opponents. In eight attempts since 2010, though, Stony Brook has pulled off the feat exactly once. In 2012, a season where the Seawolves went 10-3 and made the FCS playoffs, they went to West Point and knocked off Army.

Head coach Chuck Priore has been there for the entire ride, both the high of winning at Michie Stadium and losses to Syracuse and a half-dozen Group of Five opponents. That includes the one time South Florida has actually played Stony Brook. The two teams met in 2010 in the Seawolves’ first game against an FBS opponent.

The 2010 South Florida team, playing in the Big East at the time, walloped Stony Brook 59-14. Given this season’s roster has never won more than five games in any of the past four seasons, the Seawolves probably don’t stand much of a chance against these Bulls either.

PREDICTION: South Florida 62, Stony Brook 3 (2-0)

South Florida could eclipse the margin of victory from their last encounter with Stony Brook. Quinton Flowers will get only a half of work as Charlie Strong begins testing his offensive depth. It won’t matter, because the defense will have no problem containing a Seawolves offense that averaged only 16.7 points per game last year.

The showdown between UConn and USF has been an annual staple on the teams’ respective calendars. The Bulls and Huskies have played one another every year since South Florida entered the Big East in 2005. For the past five years, the Bulls have owned Connecticut in the series. Last year the Bulls won 42-27 in Tampa, taking down the Huskies without much trouble.

UConn went 3-9 in Bob Diaco’s third and final season with the team. Back returns Randy Edsall, who is hoping to restore the Huskies to a place where they can contend for conference titles. In his first stint as Connecticut coach from 1999 to 2010, he helped the team transition from the I-AA ranks and led them to two Big East titles.

It will be hard for Edsall to turn things around immediately, though. The Huskies do return seven players on each side of the ball, so a bowl game could be feasible in 2017.

PREDICTION: South Florida 41, Connecticut 20 (3-0)

Even though UConn should be better in 2017, they are still likely going to be at least 20 points worse than South Florida. The Bulls are going to control the ball, force the Huskies to make a couple of big mistakes, and run away with a comfortable victory to move to 3-0 ahead of the first of two straight short weeks.

South Florida gets just one chance to make a statement against a Power Five team this season. The Bulls welcome Illinois to Raymond James Stadium for a Friday-night showdown. This Illini team lost half the starters from a group that won just three games last season. Lovie Smith enters his second year in Champaign with a continuing rebuilding project on his hands.

This is the first game South Florida has ever played against the Fighting Illini. But the Bulls are 0-5 all time against Big Ten teams. They’ve lost to Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and twice to Maryland since 2005. Charlie Strong will be looking to reverse that trend in his first season at the helm in Tampa.

Illinois ranked in the top 20 in passing defense last year. That, however, was mostly due to the fact that opponents could run at will against the Illini defense. That could be the case once again as Illinois is fighting uphill against the fleeting dream of bowl eligibility.

PREDICTION: South Florida 41, Illinois 27 (4-0)

South Florida will finally break its drought against the Big Ten, knocking off Illinois by two touchdowns at home. This is a game where D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice could really make some noise. The pair of running backs should be able to punch in big yards and multiple scores against Lovie Smith’s mismatched defense.

This is the game that ended the dream for South Florida in 2016. The Bulls went to Philadelphia to face Temple in what ultimately proved to be the de facto AAC East championship game. That October contest saw the Owls bulldoze the Bulls for over 300 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Temple took the contest 46-30 and never looked back, winning the American Athletic Conference crown in an quasi-upset of Navy.

The Owls, though, have their own rebuilding project at hand. Head coach Matt Rhule has left Philly to take the Baylor gig. Starting quarterback Phillip Walker is also gone from the Owls roster, having exhausted his eligibility. The defense must also replace seven starters from one of the stingiest groups in the country last year.

South Florida, though, must also take on Temple on a second straight short week. The Owls will be making a similar run of three games in 12 days, so there is no inherent disadvantage in reduced rest. The Friday-night battle will be must-see television.

PREDICTION: South Florida 31, Temple 27 (5-0)

Temple will have a hard time keeping Quinton Flowers in check as much as they did last year. Flowers finished last season’s game with just 187 passing yards and was held under 100 rushing yards for one of just five times all season. This time he should get at least 250 passing yards and 100 rushing as he leads the Bulls to a hard-fought win over their recent nemesis.

For a time in the early 2010s, East Carolina looked like they might break through as the next BCS Buster as they beat teams like Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Instead, the Pirates has fallen hard since joining the American Athletic Conference in 2014. ECU has seen their win total drop from 10 wins in their last C-USA season to eight in 2014 and five in 2015.

PREDICTION: South Florida 44, East Carolina 23 (6-0)

After the trip to Greenvile, South Florida will have finished half of its regular season by the end of September. The Bulls will get a well-deserved bye week after nearly doubling the score on the Pirates. USF might reach 600 yards of offense and feature three different 100-yard rushers as they roll up the points on their hosts.

After a week off, South Florida begins the second half of its schedule with a non-conference game against woebegone UMass. The Minutemen won just two games last year, their first as an independent after being booted from the MAC. Massachusetts was underwhelming on both offense and defense, and that is unlikely to change this season.

Mark Whipple enters his 10th season in Amherst with little hope for a turnaround in the near future. As an independent, UMass plays a scattershot schedule that includes a fair number of tough opponents. That leaves even less margin for error than most mid-major schools enjoy season after season.

This is the first time that the Minutemen have ever squared off against the Bulls. About the only thing they might have going for them is unfamiliarity.

PREDICTION: South Florida 51, UMass 7 (7-0)

South Florida is going to have no trouble against Whipple’s crew. UMass has eight starters back on defense from last year’s crew, and that group gave up an average of over five touchdowns a game. A unit as strong as the Bulls bring to the table will be able to get half a hundred, especially after a week of rest.

(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

No team returns more starters in 2017 than Tulane. The Green Wave bring back eight players on each side of the ball, and they could be in the race for a bowl berth. In Willie Fritz’s first season as head coach, the Green Wave went 4-8. The team, though, went just 1-7 in American Athletic Conference play.

In Tulane’s favor, they bring back more starters from last year than any other team in the league. They also lost to Wake Forest, SMU, and Navy by a single score. Fritz should have a more competitive group in 2017, and some of those results should turn around in close games. Against more elite competition, though, the Green Wave will have a hard time keeping pace.

Playing in separate divisions over the past few years, and in different conferences before that, Tulane and South Florida have never met on the football field.

PREDICTION: South Florida 34, Tulane 17 (8-0)

This inaugural showdown in New Orleans might not be kind to the hosts. Tulane will be able to score a few touchdowns in front of their home crowd at Yulman Stadium. A decent defense could also keep South Florida from lighting up the scoreboard too much. But the Bulls simply have too much firepower to lose their first game of the year to the Green Wave.

Cincinnati is one of those teams that aspire to Power Five status but continue to fall short on the field. The Bearcats were a launchpad for coaches like Mark Dantonio, Brian Kelly, and Butch Jones. But none of those names remained in the Queen City, instead bolting for bigger opportunities at Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Tennessee respectively.

Though they went to back-to-back BCS bowl games in 2008 and 2009 under Kelly’s guidance, the Bearcats have fallen on hard times. Tommy Tuberville enters his fifth season as a coach whose job security is walking a tightrope. Cincinnati went 4-8 in 2016 and missed a bowl game for the first time in six years. It was just the third time since joining the Big East in 2005 that Cincy has missed the postseason.

It could be another rough year for the Nippert faithful. Cincinnati is tied with Temple for the fewest returning starters. At least Hayden Moore is back for his second season as the starter at quarterback.

PREDICTION: South Florida 45, Cincinnati 35 (9-0)

Moore will get some yards against the South Florida secondary. The Bearcats will have already played some big games on the road at this point of the year. But that secondary will also get at least one interception that thwarts any second-half momentum, and the Bulls will get a late touchdown to seal the victory.

Last season, Houston was supposed to be the American Athletic Conference team that made waves on a national level. The Cougars were coming off the conference title and a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl in 2015. They were able to knock off Oklahoma and Louisville, but lost three league games to fall out of contention.

The Bulls did not play Houston last season. Three years have passed since the two squads last met in 2014. That year, the Cougars won 27-3. This time around, the team lost both head coach Tom Herman and starting quarterback Greg Ward Jr. That could hurt Houston as they try to get back to the top of the AAC.

Last year the Cougars faded down the stretch. Houston lost its last two games at Memphis and against San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They will be looking to right the ship under offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Major Applewhite.

PREDICTION: South Florida 41, Houston 24 (10-0)

Both teams will already comfortably be in secure position to make a bowl game. This could even be a game of ranked teams if both USF and Houston can maintain their winning focus. In this showdown, Houston’s defense will keep it in the game, but South Florida will get an early lead and then trade points the rest of the game.

Tulsa was among the American Athletic Conference’s top teams last year. But it could be a rare appearance among the league’s best. The Golden Hurricane won 10 games in head coach Philip Montgomery’s second season at the helm. Their only three losses came against Ohio State, Houston, and Navy. The Buckeyes game was a rout, but the latter two contests saw Tulsa fall by seven and two points respectively.

Tulsa lost senior quarterback Dane Evans after he exhausted his eligibility. They were hardly just a passing team, though, ranking eighth in rushing. James Flanders is gone, but D’Angelo Brewer is back for his senior season. But the defense must replace five starters from last year’s team, and it will be an uphill battle to get back to double digits.

Still, the Golden Hurricane should have a good team in 2017. They will have already played Oklahoma State, Navy, Houston, and Memphis by this point of the year. They will win at least one of those games. But Tulsa did not play South Florida last year. The last time the two teams met was in 2014 in Oklahoma, with the Bulls dealing Tulsa a 38-30 defeat.

PREDICTION: South Florida 44, Tulsa 38 (11-0)

Tulsa will once again be a tough out for the Bulls. By this point redshirt freshman Luke Skipper should feel comfortable guiding the Golden Hurricane offense as Evans’ successor at quarterback. South Florida’s secondary will be tested by Tulsa’s receivers and backs, but Quinton Flowers will outduel his younger counterpart in a Tampa shootout.

Thus the Bulls will enter their annual showdown with rival UCF with a perfect record. Last year the Bulls won 48-31 at home for their 10th win of the regular season. Two years ago South Florida romped to a 44-3 victory in Orlando to finish off UCF’s 0-12 bomb. The two seasons before that, though, Central Florida came out the victor in much closer contests.

In 2013, the Knights survived USF 23-20 in Tampa to earn the last Big East trip to a BCS bowl game. UCF then won again in their 2014 follow-up at home 16-0. In his second season as the Knights’ head coach, former Oregon coordinator Scott Frost has a veteran offense that returns nine starters, including sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton.

What will keep UCF from being a huge threat in the American Athletic Conference this year is a defense that returns just four starters. The Knights, though, could still have a chance at spoiling their rival’s perfect season.

PREDICTION: South Florida 51, UCF 41 (12-0)

UCF will end up being a shootout in Orlando, as the Knights keep pace with South Florida’s offense for much of the game. Like the rest of the season, the Bulls will score a lot of points. But the toll of playing a lot of tough games later in the year will be noticeable as the defense give up over 40 to the veteran UCF offense. Things won’t go sour, though, as USF completes the perfect campaign heading into the AAC championship game.

South Florida will host the American Athletic Conference championship game for the first time after going 12-0 in the regular season. A number of teams could emerge out of the AAC West. Last year Navy took top honors, while two years ago Houston won the division and the league en route to a Peach Bowl win over Florida State.

Both teams could be in the hunt for the division this season. A rematch against the Cougars wouldn’t be unimaginable, nor would a showdown with the Midshipmen for the first time in 2017. But they will probably fall short against a stacked Memphis team that returns nine starters on offense, including quarterback Riley Ferguson and a group of senior receivers.

This year’s conference championship could be a showdown of top-20 teams. Memphis plays its toughest game of the year at home against UCLA on Sept. 16. After that, they managed to avoid both Temple and South Florida from the East in interdivisional play. The Tigers might be 11-1 entering this contest against the 12-0 Bulls.

PREDICTION: South Florida 38, Memphis 34 (13-0)

Things will be tense early, and each veteran quarterback might make first-half mistakes that deflate the scoring a bit. But after halftime the two teams will begin to get their footing. Look for the game to stay close throughout, with South Florida grinding out a late drive to take the lead with around 90 seconds remaining. Memphis will drive but, needing a touchdown rather than just a field goal, will run out of time.

Final Standings: 13-0 (9-0 AAC)

There is little reason to think that South Florida can’t win throughout their schedule in 2017 and finish undefeated. The team is experienced, the new coaches should bolster an already talented crew’s football knowledge, and the schedule really isn’t that difficult.

As long as the Bulls manage to cope with the fact that they A) play a lot of games really early in the season and then B) backloaded their toughest contests toward the end, they should run the table. After coming close but falling short last season, South Florida will finally win a conference title for the first time in the program’s history.

The question then becomes where Charlie Strong’s crew goes bowling. The College Football Playoff selection committee will certainly take a long look at the undefeated Bulls. It all comes down to how well other Group of Five conference champions have fared throughout the year.

Next: College Football: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017

POSSIBLE BOWL MATCHUP: Peach Bowl vs. Louisville

While the Bulls will have played a rather easy schedule, that unblemished record will be too tough to deny. The AAC champions will head to the Peach Bowl and take on Louisville. While Lamar Jackson is unlikely to win the Heisman Trophy a second straight season, the Cardinals will still be a top team in the ACC. The scoreboard might explode in Atlanta when these two offensive juggernauts with dueling dual-threat quarterbacks meet in the New Year’s Six battle.

Zach Bigalke

Zach is a sport historian in the Department of Kinesiology at Penn State University. He has covered a variety of American and international sports online and in print since 2006 and was formerly the managing editor at Informative Sports and Sports Unbiased.