2018 NFL Draft: Is 2018 the year of the quarterback?

Buyer beware

The more quarterbacks are selected in the first round the higher the “bust-rate” tends to be. A cursory look of these seven draft classes with four or more first round quarterbacks reveals a length list of picks that most teams would rather have had back. Of the four most recent draft classes with four or more first round quarterbacks half of them have been unequivocal busts.

For every Cam Newton (No. 1 overall – 2011) there is at least one Christian Ponder (No. 12 – 2011). That holds true throughout the modern era. The same draft that saw Carson Palmer (No. 1 – 2003) and Byron Leftwich (No. 7) go in the top 10 also saw Kyler Boller (No. 19) and Rex Grossman (No. 22) selected in the first round.

The Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are all locks to take a quarterback relatively high in the 2018 NFL Draft. Others like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos and Washington Redskins will also be on the lookout. That’s at least nine teams that will be prioritizing the quarterback position this year. The 2018 NFL Draft has plenty of talent, but the quarterbacks are set to make history, at least as far as the number selected in the first round.

With so many needy teams it seems almost certain that history will repeat itself. There’s no telling which passers will pan out and which one’s won’t but history tends to look much kinder of the general manager that drafts Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11 – 2004) than J.P. Losman (No. 22 – 2004).