College Football SMQ: The impact of recruiting for national championship teams
By Zach Bigalke
Who are the best and worst bets to win the 2018 national title?
Before we look at the current crop of contenders, let’s consider a few things:
- Other than the oddity between Auburn and Oregon at the end of the 2010-2011 season, all national title game participants have had a five-year average recruit ranking of 88 points or higher. That eliminates nearly half of the teams listed at 100/1 or lower in the most recent Bovada odds.
- Since the introduction of the College Football Playoff, none of the rosters of the champions rated lower than 89 points on average. Three out of the four champions fielded rosters with an average recruiting rank of 90 points or higher.
- Vegas odds will inevitably fluctuate over the course of the long offseason. In terms of best and worst bets, these are always subject to change.
With all that in mind, here are the five-year recruiting averages for the 35 teams getting 100/1 odds or lower.
Five-year recruiting averages for 2018 national title contenders
| R-S | S/R-J | J/R-So | So/R-F | F | TOTAL | ODDS | |
| Alabama | 93.65 | 93.73 | 92.54 | 93.76 | 92.91 | 93.34 | 5/2 |
| Ohio State | 90.59 | 90.31 | 91.56 | 94.59 | 94.41 | 92.13 | 15/2 |
| Florida State | 90.13 | 92.54 | 91.71 | 91.10 | 91.51 | 91.40 | 33/1 |
| Georgia | 90.97 | 89.74 | 90.77 | 92.27 | 93.80 | 91.39 | 13/2 |
| USC | 87.03 | 92.28 | 91.00 | 91.93 | 93.69 | 91.04 | 33/1 |
| LSU | 91.25 | 89.91 | 91.35 | 91.05 | 89.70 | 90.67 | 25/1 |
| Clemson | 88.69 | 89.12 | 90.30 | 92.10 | 93.07 | 90.50 | 13/2 |
| Auburn | 88.78 | 90.16 | 90.65 | 89.34 | 90.29 | 89.82 | 20/1 |
| Notre Dame | 89.32 | 90.45 | 89.00 | 89.37 | 90.43 | 89.70 | 33/1 |
| Michigan | 89.90 | 87.81 | 89.86 | 91.20 | 89.02 | 89.53 | 10/1 |
| Texas | 88.09 | 89.43 | 90.07 | 87.58 | 92.38 | 89.41 | 22/1 |
| UCLA | 88.83 | 91.63 | 88.34 | 88.38 | 88.93 | 89.28 | 75/1 |
| Texas A&M | 90.99 | 89.03 | 88.70 | 87.93 | 88.91 | 89.17 | 33/1 |
| Florida | 89.61 | 87.26 | 88.72 | 89.11 | 90.77 | 89.02 | 50/1 |
| Oklahoma | 87.30 | 88.20 | 88.49 | 89.93 | 91.04 | 88.87 | 20/1 |
| Stanford | 89.37 | 87.04 | 87.31 | 92.56 | 87.35 | 88.71 | 33/1 |
| Penn State | 86.82 | 89.05 | 88.08 | 88.32 | 91.31 | 88.61 | 12/1 |
| Miami | 88.07 | 86.36 | 88.63 | 88.68 | 91.38 | 88.48 | 25/1 |
| Oregon | 87.87 | 88.71 | 87.06 | 87.24 | 88.57 | 87.89 | 50/1 |
| South Carolina | 88.87 | 86.63 | 86.02 | 87.14 | 87.80 | 87.30 | 100/1 |
| Michigan State | 86.78 | 87.66 | 88.87 | 84.90 | 87.06 | 87.08 | 25/1 |
| Washington | 84.34 | 85.77 | 87.42 | 88.45 | 89.99 | 87.01 | 28/1 |
| Mississippi State | 84.84 | 87.69 | 87.08 | 86.11 | 87.21 | 86.56 | 100/1 |
| Virginia Tech | 85.99 | 86.35 | 84.85 | 86.13 | 87.13 | 86.06 | 33/1 |
| TCU | 83.07 | 85.63 | 88.25 | 85.18 | 87.65 | 85.85 | 50/1 |
| Wisconsin | 84.78 | 85.50 | 84.96 | 85.82 | 86.52 | 85.47 | 25/1 |
| Oklahoma State | 85.91 | 84.86 | 84.67 | 84.95 | 86.39 | 85.33 | 100/1 |
| Missouri | 84.54 | 86.44 | 85.05 | 84.59 | 85.49 | 85.23 | 100/1 |
| NC State | 84.44 | 85.31 | 83.58 | 84.68 | 86.38 | 84.83 | 100/1 |
| Utah | 83.05 | 84.65 | 84.45 | 86.04 | 86.06 | 84.76 | 100/1 |
| West Virginia | 84.12 | 84.75 | 83.08 | 84.18 | 86.64 | 84.49 | 33/1 |
| Arizona | 84.02 | 84.32 | 84.08 | 84.11 | 84.44 | 84.19 | 100/1 |
| UCF | 83.18 | 83.55 | 82.62 | 83.36 | 83.50 | 83.24 | 100/1 |
| Boise State | 81.80 | 83.61 | 82.28 | 83.11 | 84.27 | 82.96 | 100/1 |
| Kansas State | 82.17 | 83.39 | 82.08 | 83.33 | 83.90 | 82.93 | 100/1 |
Who is probably the safest bet?
The smart money will gravitate toward the usual suspects. Alabama is the odds-on favorite to repeat and win a third title in four seasons. Ohio State looks ready to get revenge for being snubbed in 2017. And both Clemson and Georgia look ready to get back into the mix.
Among that quartet, the defending ACC champions are probably the team in greatest danger of falling off in 2018. The Tigers, though, get back all four starters on the defensive line even as they continue to figure out life on offense after Deshaun Watson.
Who is the best long-odd bet on the board?
Both Florida State and USC look ready to get back into the mix of national title contenders in 2018. The Trojans won the Pac-12 last season and will be hungry to start contending for even bigger rewards this season. Losing quarterback Sam Darnold will leave some question marks, but the Trojans have plenty of talent to get back in the mix.
Florida State suffered through an injury-wracked season, but with Deondre Francois back in 2018 they have a shot at reclaiming the ACC. The Seminoles, though, will need to adjust to life under new head coach Willie Taggart.
Both the Seminoles and the Trojans are 33/1 underdogs with an average recruit ranking of 91 points or higher. As such, both teams are attractive long-odd bets for those looking to maximize return on investment.
Which teams look overrated according to Vegas?
Michigan State and Wisconsin are in position to contend for the Big Ten crown in 2018. Both teams feature rosters with plenty of returning talent. On offense, quarterbacks Brian Lewerke and Alex Hornibrook are poised to take the next step toward superstardom.
But the overall rosters of both squads fall below that magic 88-point threshold that marks the standard for title-game hopefuls. Though both teams have plenty of returning talent, they were lighter-recruited high schoolers unwanted by bigger powerhouses.
Recruiting numbers aren’t everything, and plenty of high-impact stars have fallen through the recruiting cracks over the years. Both of these teams have a long-demonstrated track record of finding diamonds in the rough and polishing them into key cogs in their respective systems. Even so, 25/1 odds might not be generous enough to merit a significant bet.
Other teams that could be overrated include Penn State, a 12/1 favorite who has a lower odds than 11 of the 16 teams with a better five-year recruiting average than the Nittany Lions. Washington, despite getting back Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin for another season, also look in danger of plateauing this year.
What about teams with new head coaches?
We nearly saw Lincoln Riley take Oklahoma to the national championship game in his first year as the head coach in Norman. The Sooners fell to Georgia at the Rose Bowl in overtime, but Riley’s successful campaign reminded the country that new coaches can find success immediately.
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Several of the teams among the early 2018 title contenders will open the new year with new leaders on the sideline. Most intriguing might be UCLA, which is getting 75/1 odds in its first year under Chip Kelly. The former Oregon coach returns to the Pac-12 and inherits the 12th-best roster in the country in terms of its rankings at the time of recruitment.
Likewise, new Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher gets an Aggies team that ranks right behind UCLA in five-year recruiting average. The team Fisher left behind, Florida State, is stacked with a top-three roster for new coach Wilie Taggart. The man whose termination opened the door for Fisher to come to College Station, Kevin Sumlin, inherits Khalil Tate and a strong roster at Arizona.
The game of musical chairs means that a new leader also takes over for Taggart in Eugene. There, Oregon will be led in 2018 by former FIU coach Mario Cristobal, who was promoted from offensive coordinator after Taggart’s departure to Tallahassee.
Mississippi State and Florida have new coaches after Dan Mullen traded Starkville for Gainesville. UCF tries to repeat as American Athletic Conference champions under new coach Josh Heupel after Scott Frost left for his alma mater. All told, eight of the 35 teams at 100/1 or lower will have new leadership this season.
Next: Way-too-early Top 25 projections for 2018
In the end, the usual suspects are likely going to be in the mix once again 2018. Recruiting, it seems, is a self-perpetuating cycle. Strong classes lead to title opportunities, which in turn beget more strong classes and more championship chances.
In the end, the recruiting rankings seem to be solid evaluators of talent. Those teams that land the most highly-rated talent tend to be the ones that compete for national championships. On top of the extra playoff round and the selection committee process, recruiting serves as the first filter that determines whether a team is a pretender or a contender.