College Football Recruiting: Dispelling the myth stars don’t matter

What does this mean?

As shown above, despite some prominent examples, the numbers just don’t support the claim that stars don’t matter. Despite an extremely small percentage of recruits being labeled as “blue-chips”, those players make up a large portion of the NFL at every position.

The reason for underrated players starring at the next level isn’t a recruiting rankings miscue, it’s a numbers game. There are far more non-blue chip players than there are blue chips. Chances are high that at least some of them will succeed.

Does that mean that non-blue chips aren’t any good? Or that the only players that matter were players given the four and five-star distinctions? Of course not. There are plenty of great players that didn’t garner hype out of high school. However, that doesn’t dispute the recruiting rankings system, it confirms it.

Blue chips, by design, are more likely to succeed at the next levels, be it college or the NFL. In general, they do. There’s a far higher success rate for blue chips than non-blue chips, as evidenced by the massive disparity between blue-chip percentage out of high school to blue-chip percentage in the pros. It increases at every position. That’s what success looks like.