How did spring practices impact how 2018 contenders will be perceived by pollsters? Here is our latest edition of the preseason AP Top 25 projections.
Spring practice is in the books. The NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. And the academic year is winding down toward summer on campuses around the country over the next month.
With the downtime, talk can now turn toward both reflection and projection. After our earlier attempt at projecting the 2018 preseason AP Top 25 immediately following the end of the 2017 season, the spring results afford a new opportunity to evaluate how pollsters will grade each of these teams.
As usual, it bears mentioning that these are not personal rankings for these teams. Instead, the object here is to attempt to get into the brains of the AP voters and see how they will view these teams ahead of voting in the AP Top 25 poll.
The top spots in the preseason poll will almost certainly be occupied by a familiar cast of characters that closely resembles the order of rankings at the end of the 2017 season. But there is also going to be some shuffling in the poll, as teams either settle on their new stars of the future or struggle to determine who should start at key positions.
With that in mind, let’s dive in and take a look at who will feature in the AP Top 25 once the summer winds down and the organization releases its preseason rankings.
The reintroduction of Chip Kelly to the college football sidelines is going to open the eyes of some pollsters. Will it be enough to push UCLA into the preseason AP Top 25? After the way the spring game went, the questions are even greater than ever. Even with the uncertainty in Los Angeles, though, there is enough swirl around the Bruins that they could jump up from among those also receiving votes.
Injuries and the absence of new recruits forced the Bruins to truncate their spring game plans. Many of their top players remained on the sidelines, and the two teams were forced to run a limited number of plays. If nothing else, though, a veteran backfield looks ready to benefit from a new offensive philosophy.
UCLA didn’t tip its hat during the spring game. Subterfuge, after all, is a Chip Kelly trademark. The pace looked nothing like a traditional Kelly offense, though Jamabo busted off a long gain and the offensive line showed improvement. Once fall rolls around, the hype will probably climb enough for UCLA to reach the Top 25.
Kevin Sumlin took over as the head coach in Tucson, quickly landing a new gig after Texas A&M let him go. We could see Sumlin’s former squad land in the AP Top 25, but his current squad is set up for more immediate success in 2018. With the Pac-12 South in flux, Arizona could see some love from pollsters this preseason.
A big reason for Arizona’s rise up the polls this offseason is the return of dual-threat quarterback Khalil Tate. If not for injuries, Tate might never have reached the field last season. Now, Tate looks like he could break out as a Heisman contender in 2018. Though Sumlin’s last years in College Station faded off a bit, he is still the coach that helped develop players like Case Keenum at Houston and Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M.
What stood out in the spring game, though, was not the offense but the defense. The Wildcats D forced five turnovers in the spring game, highlighting a strong linebacking corps and a developing secondary. If Arizona can stymie Pac-12 offenses this year, they will vault up quickly from a low-20s position in the preseason Top 25.
As more time passes since UCF’s perfect 2017 campaign, the achievement begins to fade from memory. The same thing happens for every Group of Five contender that emerges as a New Year’s Six participant. In college football, a team is only as good as its current form. That holds especially true for mid-majors trying to maintain respect.
Though Scott Frost is gone as head coach, there is still plenty going well for the Knights in 2017. McKenzie Milton is back at quarterback, and the passer could emerge as a Heisman contender. Adrian Killins Jr. and Otis Anderson are back to fuel the ground game. The defense will need some retooling, but the offense should once again be among the best in college football.
Games against North Carolina and Pitt offer a pair of winnable Power Five statement opportunities. And the defending AAC champions will be right in the conference hunt again. Pollsters will probably make UCF the token Group of Five team in this year’s preseason AP Top 25. But they are trending downward and are likely to end up somewhere in the mid-20s rather than the teens.
With Scott Frost back in Lincoln, Nebraska is likely going to get some love from pollsters heading into the 2018 season. A new era for the Cornhuskers will begin, as their former national-championship quarterback returns to take over as head coach. The path is open for the Cornhuskers to compete right away, thanks to their place in the Big Ten West.
Akron, Colorado, and Troy offer a trio of winnable tests out of conference to start the season. Nebraska does have to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in interdivisional play. It is a schedule that could offer some pitfalls, but should the Huskers keep winning it will also be a schedule that forgives the weak non-conference slate.
There is big hype for freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez. Given the fact that Frost has steered past quarterbacks Marcus Mariota (at Oregon) and McKenzie Milton (at UCF) toward productive first seasons, Nebraska fans have reason to get excited about their new star in the making. His emergence this spring will help push Nebraska up from those also receiving votes into the AP Top 25 this preseason.
Redshirt senior Taylor Cornelius looks like another big-armed prototypical quarterback for Mike Gundy. Stepping in for Mason Rudolph, Cornelius looked good in the Oklahoma State spring game. The likely new starter went 15-of-27 for over 250 passing yards. That included a 51-yard touchdown pass to sophomore receiver Landon Wolf.
The offense once again should be just fine in Stillwater. As always, the question will come down to whether the defense can hold down the score of their Big 12 opponents. The Pokes allowed nearly 30 points per game. Like many other Big 12 teams, Oklahoma State’s success was predicated on outscoring opponents rather than keeping them off the scoreboard.
With a rotating cast of characters, though, Gundy and his staff have generated three straight 10-win seasons. Even with one of the most inexperienced teams in the FBS, Oklahoma State will likely get a nod from pollsters and land somewhere in the low 20s of the AP Top 25.
Michigan entered the spring hoping to trend upward in the eyes of pollsters. But the spring game was canceled, preventing the Wolverines from improving perception for pollsters. That could work against Jim Harbaugh‘s team, which entered the year with a lot of question marks.
After collapsing down the stretch in 2017, losing three in a row to close out the year, expectations will be tempered in Ann Arbor. The team has become better known for extravagant offseason travels than for successes on the field. Pollsters are going to look at the Wolverines and see another young roster in 2018.
That’s still the case despite the ruling that Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson is cleared to play immediately. That adds some clarity to a quarterback position that was very much so in flux, with Brandon Peters the most experienced passer other than Patterson for the Maize and Blue. Pollsters will look at this team and probably see a low-teens unit.
Oregon entered the spring as one of the biggest question marks. On their third head coach in as many seasons, the Ducks could go one of two directions. They could potentially emerge as a breakout team in 2018, with a top-shelf quarterback and plenty of raw talent. Just as easily, Oregon could backslide further from the highs of the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich years.
At the spring game, young players stepped up at key positions. Daewood Davis looks like he could be a breakout star at receiver this season, and CJ Verdell looks ready to try to fill the void left in the backfield by Royce Freeman‘s graduation. The defense should also continue to improve thanks to Jim Leavitt’s return as defensive coordinator.
Add it all up and everything is in position for a major Oregon renaissance in 2018. AP voters are likely going to look at Oregon and the past few years as a blip. As long as Justin Herbert stays healthy at quarterback, the Ducks are going to be Pac-12 North contenders. Barring major developments over the offseason, they will likely open the season in the high teens or low 20s of the AP Top 25.
South Carolina showcased a revamped offense under new coordinator Bryan McClendon at this year’s spring game. The Gamecocks returns much of their offensive talent. Deebo Samuels is back, and Bryan Edwards and A.J. Turner are developing into major targets as well for quarterback Jake Bentley. Meanwhile, Ty’Son Williams has the potential to break out as a major running back in the SEC this year.
The 614 yards of offense in the spring game obscured the improvements that are also being made on defense. Several young recruits looked promising in the spring game, with freshman early-enrollee linebacker Rosendo Louis notably racking up five tackles. Though the loss of a lot of talent could lead to a slight dip in defensive productivity, they won’t fall far from last year’s Top 25 unit.
If any team is best positioned to challenge Georgia for the SEC East title in 2018, it is the Gamecocks. Will Muschamp‘s team could put a lot of pressure on rival defenses this year. The spectacle put on display at the spring game will ensure that South Carolina shows up somewhere in the high teens or low 20s of the preseason AP Top 25.
Once again in Baton Rouge, quarterback is unlikely to be a point of strength. In the spring game, the slew of passers on the roster all failed to create separation in the race to earn the starting position. But LSU has succeeded in the past despite the lack of an elite quarterback, and the talent is there in the receiving corps to bolster the fortunes of whoever emerges in the race to start.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks ready to burst out as the next great Tigers running back. The coaching staff is going to try to get the ball to dynamic receiver Justin Jefferson as much as possible. And the defense should remain as formidable as ever, after finishing 2017 as a top-15 unit in the country.
The Tigers open the season against Miami, affording a marquee non-conference opportunity to consolidate position in the AP Top 25. The game will feature one of the matchups between ranked teams that pepper the Labor Day weekend schedule. Though they are an underdog in the SEC West, LSU will still get tabbed by the pollsters somewhere in the high teens or low 20s this preseason.
With the loss of Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones II to the NFL, USC once again has to retool its backfield quickly if it hopes to remain in Pac-12 contention. Beyond that duo, the rest of the offense is also going to be among the greenest in the country in 2018. Clay Helton‘s staff is going to have to get them up to speed quickly.
The quarterback situation is still undecided. Running back will likely be managed by committee. But the defense appears to be in great shape after the spring game. The secondary is going to be a point of strength against Pac-12 opponents. That could be the key point that allows USC to remain in contention to repeat as conference champions.
The offense is going to sputter, but the defense will keep the Trojans in games this year. UNLV offers a brief warm-up opportunity before a September stretch featuring Stanford, Texas, Washington State, and Arizona in succession. If the Trojans make it to October undefeated, they will vault up into the top five from their mid-teens starting point in the AP Top 25.
Two years ago, Justin Fuente led Virginia Tech to the ACC Coastal crown and a spot in the conference title game. Last year, the Hokies were overtaken by Miami in the division race. But Virginia Tech has the tools on offense to remain in contention in the ACC this year, beginning with quarterback Josh Jackson.
The dual-threat star was overshadowed by Kansas transfer Ryan Willis at the spring game, but Jackson is indisputably the starter in Blacksburg. When they keep the ball on the ground, Virginia Tech will employ a committee approach to running the ball. They should improve on their 69th-ranked scoring offense from last season.
Success and failure in 2018 will depend on how well the defense rebuilds. The Hokies lost a large quantity of talent on that side of the ball, including the Edmunds brothers who both went in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Until the defense proves itself back to vintage level, they won’t jump higher than the mid-teens of the AP Top 25.
Jarrett Stidham is back for another year as the quarterback on the Plains. The transfer from Baylor helped guide the Tigers to the SEC West title over rival Alabama last season. But two losses in Atlanta closed out the 2017 campaign for Auburn, which fell to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and UCF in the Peach Bowl.
Stidham will have to carry the team more through the air as Auburn adjusts to a new-look running game. Both Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway left school early to declare for the NFL Draft. Only Johnson was actually selected. The dual departure drained the backfield talent for Gus Malzahn’s offense.
The biggest loss, though, could be graduated kicker Daniel Carlson. We will find out soon enough when the season opens with a statement opportunity against Washington. The Tigers will open somewhere in the mid-teens of the AP Top 25, and the game against the Huskies will determine whether they rise or fall from there.
What will life yield for Miami after the first ACC Coastal title in team history? The Hurricanes finally broke through for a division title in 2017, their first since leaving the Big East. Mark Richt‘s team didn’t have the weapons to fend off Clemson in the conference title game. And the sting of three straight losses to close out the year will linger through the offseason.
That is the lingering image that will stick with pollsters, who are likely going to put the Hurricanes somewhere in the mid-teens of the AP Top 25. Malik Rosier continued to fight through growing pains this spring, with his performance in the spring game ostensibly inconsistent. (Unfortunately for fans of spring football the Hurricanes scrimmage was not televised.)
Rosier at least has a brilliant new target in Brian Hightower. The freshman is poised to become the next great Canes receiver after catching four passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game. It won’t be enough to push Miami into the top 10, but they will be somewhere in the low teens of the preseason AP Top 25 as they begin their division title defense.
The spring revealed a Michigan State team with some holes that will likely have them trending slightly downward in the preseason AP Top 25. The Spartans emerged from bowl season looking like a potential top-10 team to enter the 2018 season. After their spring game, though, the Spartans will probably slot in somewhere in the pre-teens or low teens.
Brian Lewerke was inconsistent at quarterback, though he did hit Darrell Stewart with a great 30-yard back-shoulder touchdown throw. LJ Scott and Connor Heyward provide a strong 1-2 punch in the running game. But the backfield is dangerously short on depth entering the new campaign. An injury to either of the top two players on the depth chart would push freshman into major roles.
Mark Dantonio did an admirable job getting a young team to contend in the Big Ten East last year. A more experienced group will probably show up somewhere between No. 10 and No. 13 in the first preseason release of the AP Top 25. One of the most experienced teams in the country will be a dark-horse threat in the Big Ten once again this year.
The Seminoles could face a quarterback controversy in Willie Taggart’s first season at the helm in Tallahassee. When Deondre Francois went down injured in the season opener against Alabama, it torpedoed the Seminoles season. But that was not entirely the fault of James Blackman, who improved as the season went on after taking over the starting role on short notice.
This spring, Francois continues to nurse his knee injury. Blackman, meanwhile, looked like a quarterback unwilling to cede his starting role. Taggart will have a tough decision to make once fall rolls around, and the uncertainty could temper expectation some for Florida State. The backfield should be even better, though, with Khalan Laborn growing into a complimentary role alongside Cam Akers at running back.
2017 felt like a season lost for the Seminoles. With national championship-winning coach Jimbo Fisher departed for Texas A&M, it proved to be the end of an era. But with Taggart returning home to the Sunshine State, the Seminoles are expected to remain an ACC powerhouse in good position to challenge Clemson for the division title.
Saquon Barkley is no longer in Happy Valley, stripping the Nittany Lions of a dynamic do-everything running back. But the Penn State offense should be just fine in 2018, especially after the spring game. The climax of spring practices revealed plenty of playmakers ready to step up into bigger roles.
Most importantly, though, Trace McSorley is back for the Nittany Lions in 2018. The veteran quarterback was quietly among the dozen most efficient passers in the country last season. He returns to lead an offense that will diversify out of necessity. One player who looks poised to break out is redshirt freshman receiver Mac Hippenhammer.
The season opens with a visit from Appalachian State. A visit to face Pitt follows, and then the non-conference season concludes with a home game against Kent State. Losing Barkley, as well as tight end Mike Gesicki and receiver Daesean Hamilton, will force others to mature quickly. That will probably result in Penn State landing just outside the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25.
Last year, John Ross departed for the NFL and Dante Pettis stepped up in his place at receiver. This season, Washington will need another receiver to step up. Gone as well is tight end Will Dissly, who remains in Seattle but was drafted by the Seahawks. Quarterback Jake Browning returns to the Huskies, but he will need to find new favorite targets for the 2018 campaign.
The Huskies also lost defensive tackle Vita Vea and a pair of linebackers in the 2018 NFL Draft. But with Browning and tailback Myles Gaskin both back at Husky Stadium, there is reason for optimism. Chris Petersen’s squad has shown an ability to retool on defense, and the offense has several promising receivers that could fill the void left by Pettis.
Last year, tiebreakers prevented Washington from playing in Santa Clara to defend its 2016 Pac-12 title. The Huskies will be the favorite to emerge out of the Pac-12 North this season. Opening the year against Auburn will serve as an early test for both teams. Washington will look to validate an early single-digit ranking in the preseason AP Top 25.
Brandon Wimbush looked great during Notre Dame’s spring game. That will likely end a quarterback controversy in South Bend. While Ian Book remains a serviceable quarterback, Wimbush’s maturation makes him the clear starter. The better Wimbush can be in 2018, the better Notre Dame’s chances of emerging as a College Football Playoff contender.
Where Notre Dame really benefits though is on defense. Almost all of last year’s defensive production returns for the Fighting Irish in 2018. Last year the Irish fell in the top quartile in scoring defense, and another year of experience should only stand to benefit the unit further.
That will bode well moving forward in South Bend. Brian Kelly’s team has a tough schedule that offers a range of tests. They will get the benefit of the doubt from pollsters, who are likely to have Notre Dame sitting somewhere just inside the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25. Should the Irish win at home over Michigan to open the season, it will vault Kelly’s team higher into the single digits.
Stanford became an instant contender entering 2018 as soon as Bryce Love announced his return to the Farm. The otherworldly tailback who took college football by storm last season is back for another run at the Heisman after replacing Christian McCaffrey in the Stanford backfield. Love was a critical component in the Cardinal run to the Pac-12 North title.
The defending division champion gets K.J. Costello back as well. Last season the young quarterback took over the starting role midway through the year and never looked back. Costello will be trusted to do more in his first full season as the starter in Palo Alto. Most of the rest of the talent around him is back on offense.
The defense, on the other hand, has some rebuilding to do once again. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips and safety Justin Reid both went on the second day of the 2018 NFL Draft, and two other players went pro on day three. But David Shaw‘s team has proven resilient, and pollsters are going to reward the offensive bounty with a top-10 spot in the preseason AP Top 25.
Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield is off to the NFL after earning the first overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft. Lincoln Riley’s second season at the helm in Norman will require some rebuilding, but the Sooners are likely going to enter the 2018 season as the favorites to repeat as Big 12 champions.
The defense looked promising in the spring game. Youngsters shined during the scrimmage, especially defensive back Brendan Radley-Hiles and a group of linebackers led by Levi Draper, Kenneth Murray, and Bryan Mead. Thanks to Mike Stoops’ scheme, the Sooners will have the chance to excel on both sides of the ball.
The quarterback situation is still unsettled, with neither Austin Kendall nor Kyler Murray separating yet in the competition to replace Mayfield. Nevertheless, Oklahoma remains the most complete team in the Big 12. The Sooners are a lock to enter the 2018 season in the single digits of the AP Top 25.
Instead of having to deal with the logjam in the Big Ten East, Wisconsin has a clear path to the conference championship game. The Badgers swept through the West last year to return to Indianapolis. Teams like Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska continue to wax and wane, rise and fall. Minnesota is still rebuilding under P.J. Fleck. Ultimately, Wisconsin remains the favorite in the division.
A big reason for their continued dominance is the resurgence of the running game. Freshman sensation Jonathan Taylor was the next big star from the Garden State pipeline, and he is back in 2018 looking to build another Heisman campaign. He is joined by quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who could develop further as a junior.
Wisconsin’s spring game was canceled due to the weather. So there is not too much that we can determine about the state of various positional battles. Ultimately, though, Wisconsin’s success will depend on how well Jim Leonhard and the defensive staff rebuild a thinned-out unit. The Badgers are a Big Ten favorite and should open the year highly rated in the preseason AP Top 25.
Georgia will be ready to avenge its College Football Playoff national championship overtime loss to Alabama in 2018. They bring back Jake Fromm at quarterback. But Kirby Smart‘s offensive staff must find new stars in the backfield after both Sony Michel and Nick Chubb landed pro gigs in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The spring game didn’t inspire much confidence from the offense. Both Fromm and incoming quarterback recruit Justin Fields were hot and cold throwing the ball. Each quarterback showed an ability to hit big plays, but also tossed costly picks. What it showed more than anything, though, is that Georgia’s defense is going to be stout once again.
That is going to be critical if the Bulldogs are going to repeat as SEC champions in 2018. Georgia is the SEC East favorite, and they are positioned to return to the semifinals in 2018. Kirby Smart’s team is bound to open the new campaign in the top five of the AP Top 25 once it is released for the preseason.
Clemson has been in the final four each of the past three seasons. They bring back much of the talent that got them back to the College Football Playoff last year. The defense should be as stout as it has been in recent campaigns. And the offense should ostensibly improve as young players return with a year or two of experience under their belts.
Yet, entering 2018, it feels like there are more question marks than answers. Kelly Bryant ably took over at quarterback last season, stepping into the shoes vacated by Deshaun Watson. He piloted the Tigers to a third straight ACC championship. But in Alabama-Clemson III, Bryant was unable to muster anywhere near the magic generated by Watson in 2015 and 2016.
Dabo Swinney‘s team appears to be at a crossroads. All the pieces are in place for a fourth straight run at the ACC title and another College Football Playoff appearance. AP pollsters are likely going to reward Clemson with a spot high in the preseason Top 25. Holding that position should not be a problem through September, but this could prove to be the overrated team of the preseason by the time November rolls around.
Ohio State won the Big Ten last year, but missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff. They will get the benefit of the doubt from pollsters this offseason, even as they lose their veteran starting quarterback. The Buckeyes will slot into one of the top positions in the preseason AP Top 25 thanks to the presence of new talent.
Even with the loss of J.T. Barrett under center, the Buckeyes could be even better on offense in 2018. The backfield remains stacked, with J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber returning at running back. Dwayne Haskins proved more than capable of taking over at quarterback while filling in for Barrett at various points of injury in 2017.
Urban Meyer should have another strong defense as well in Columbus, especially along the defensive line. Put it all together and the Buckeyes are once again the favorite in the Big Ten East. Should they get through a tough schedule that also features Oregon State, TCU, and Tulane, Ohio State will get the nod from the College Football Playoff selection committee in 2018.
The defending national champions are going to be slotted in at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 until they prove themselves unworthy of the position. Even with the controversy surrounding the quarterback position in Tuscaloosa, there is no way that pollsters are going to give Nick Saban anything but the benefit of the doubt.
Will Saban settle on Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts at quarterback? The Crimson Tide have a situation that most teams would envy. But when a team has a pair of national championship-caliber quarterbacks, it is usually destined to have one unhappy quarterback. By putting in Tagovailoa last January, Alabama engineered both a comeback and a controversy.
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As long as the defense once again dominates opponents, and the ground game does its job, the Hurts/Tagovailoa storyline will not matter much. Saban will have his squad ready to open the year No. 1 yet again, with all the attendant targets it brings. All the Tide will think about through the offseason is the season opener against Louisville.
Others receiving votes
Texas A&M, TCU, Boise State, Northwestern, Iowa, Louisville, Florida Atlantic, Texas, Memphis