Notre Dame Football: Pump the breaks on Irish title talk

It’s the time of the summer when Notre Dame football starts to draw College Football Playoff buzz. The Irish need to check their expectations.

ESPN FPI isn’t the end-all-be-all metric of college football power, but it is a useful tool for projecting relative strength. In the preseason it’s based on just that, projections. Expectations of what each team might look like rather than data based on their onfield production in the fall.

Notre Dame football is favored to win every game they’ll play in 2018, at least as far as FPI is concerned. That’s a tall assumption given a relatively challenging schedule that includes Michigan, Stanford and Florida State at home as well as road trips to Virginia Tech and USC.

And let’s not forget what happened last season. The Irish took a strong start and squandered any potential College Football Playoff hopes with losses to Miami and Stanford in November.

Notre Dame could have a strong team in 2018, but their lack of conference affiliation and traditionally challenging schedule won’t do them any favors come selection time. The margin for error when it comes to making the playoff is razor-thin. FPI gives them a 10 percent chance of winning out and projects an overall record of 10-2. As much as fans might want to put on their shamrock glasses, that’s a reasonable expectation for a team that can’t seem to find a way to get over the hump.

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The Irish will more than likely have a commendable season in 2018. They’ll make a decent bowl game. They’ll win a big game or two. However, the College Football Playoff is reserved for the nation’s elite. Notre Dame hasn’t proved they belong in that conversation yet. Until they do, they’ll be on the outside looking in.