It’s another year of high expectations for Notre Dame football. Can they live up to them or will it be another season filled with disappointment?
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! No, it’s not Christmas yet, but it is the middle of summer, and that means the expectations for Notre Dame football haven’t been dashed by a strange loss or a close loss to a good team like Georgia.
Many fans have high expectations for the Fighting Irish in 2018. When you look at their schedule, you can see why. As per their agreement with the ACC, they remain as a football independent, but they must face five ACC teams per year.
Since this year is a road game against Navy, then they play two ACC road games. However, this year they get the bottom of the ACC barrel — save for one game. Their toughest four games are against Michigan (season opener), Stanford, Florida State and USC. The only one of those games on the road is at USC in the L.A. Coliseum.
Barring a close loss to a traditional power, or a loss to a team they shouldn’t lose to, this could be a season in which the Irish make a run to the College Football Playoff. Let’s look at their schedule and potential for a run.
Week 1: vs. Michigan September 1
Week 2: vs. Ball State, September 8
Week 3: vs. Vanderbilt, September 15
Week 4: at Wake Forest, September 22
Week 5: vs. Stanford, September 29
Week 6: at Virginia Tech, October 6
Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh, October 13
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: at Navy (San Diego), October 27
Week 10: at Northwestern, November 3
Week 11: vs. Florida State, November 10
Week 12: vs. Syracuse (at Yankee Stadium; Shamrock Series), November 17
Week 13: at USC, November 24
After a three-year hiatus, the rivalry is back on. The first of a two-game home and home series commences in 2018, and it couldn’t be at a better time for both programs.
Both head coaches actually have something to prove in this game. Jim Harbaugh wants to bring Michigan back to national prominence, and Brian Kelly is looking to restore things after a few dismal years and two years with vacated wins and bowl appearances.
This is the perfect way to begin the season for both teams. With both teams likely in the top-25, and Notre Dame in the top-10, this is definitely a good barometer to see where the teams are at. Since it’s early on in the season, we should expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses, though. So, we should expect a low-scoring game, unlike the last bunch of high scoring games that came later in the season when the offenses were more fine-tuned.
Prediction
In the end, it will be a game that makes the teams look like they’re not quite ready, but it’s only Week 1. That said, it’ll come down to the final drive, and it may end up being the determining factor for both of them making the College Football Playoff.
Michigan 13
Notre Dame 17
Ball State is the only true cupcake on Notre Dame’s schedule. They are the only team on Notre Dame’s schedule that truly has as close to zero percent chance as possible of winning the football game.
Every other team that Notre Dame plays has a small chance of winning either by some stroke of luck or Fighting Irish unraveling. In order for Ball State to win, it would take a complete meltdown of epic proportion, similar to the one that Notre Dame had against Navy in 2007. Otherwise, Ball State will walk into South Bend to play football and walk out with a huge double-digit loss on their ledger.
Prediction
Every college football schedules a cupcake or two during the season, but Notre Dame does so with FBS teams rather than parading an FCS team to get slaughtered. The defense will easily handle Ball State’s offense, and the offense will run over, around and through Ball State like they’re not even there.
Brian Kelly will take starters out early — like in the middle of the third quarter — to give some young players some valuable playing time. That’s how bad this game will be. It will be essentially over by halftime.
Ball State 13
Notre Dame 41
Vanderbilt is not a cupcake for Notre Dame to run over from start to finish. They may put up a fight in the first quarter, and maybe into the second. However, by the middle of the second quarter, the talent of Notre Dame will begin to show.
Notre Dame is definitely superior to Vandy, and it will show in this game. For the second straight week, Kelly will choose to sit veterans to give young players a chance to show their chops, but it won’t be until the fourth quarter in this one, when Notre Dame has begun to pull away.
This is the game where Brandon Wimbush will enter the national picture for the Heisman. He will begin to show his real talent and ability to not only run with the football but also throw it with some accuracy. He will begin to show what he showed in his senior year in high school when he completed 76.3 percent of his passes.
Prediction
This is one of those games where you look at the final score and it may not be indicative of how the game went. Notre Dame will pull away in the second and third quarters, but their young players will give up a garbage time touchdown to Vanderbilt, and it will look closer than the game actually is.
Vanderbilt 21
Notre Dame 38
After three consecutive home games, the Irish hit the road and head to Tobacco Road. This isn’t much a test to pass for the Irish, but they have to pass it with flying colors in order to please those selecting for the College Football Playoff.
Even though it’s Wake Forest, it is still on the road, and they can’t be taken lightly. With Notre Dame coming to town, there’s no doubt the fans will head to BB&T Stadium in Winston-Salem, NC to give their hometown Demon Deacons some energy to beat the Irish. That said, this is another mismatch on paper, in terms of talent.
Prediction
Much like the previous game, Wake Forest will be infused early by the crowd. It will feed them with energy, and it may last into the third quarter. In this game, however, unlike the last two, due to them being on the road and in a hostile environment, Brian Kelly won’t have the luxury of sitting starters late.
It will be a close one in which the Irish pull away late. In the end, though, the Irish will be too much for the Demon Deacons to handle and they will end up winning by a double-digit margin — simply because of too much talent to lose this game.
Notre Dame 38
Wake Forest 24
This will be the 33rd meeting between Stanford and Notre Dame in a matchup that was first played in 1925. It has only been played annually since 1997, and Notre Dame leads the battle for the Legends Trophy 19-13.
Since David Shaw took over the Stanford program in 2011, Stanford has been to four major bowl games, including the Rose Bowl three times, leading them to a 73-22 record. So, this annual tilt is a measuring stick for Notre Dame. They haven’t been successful in the Shaw era at Stanford, losing five out of the seven meetings.
There is a silver lining in Stanford’s 5-2 record against Notre Dame under Shaw, though. Both losses were at Notre Dame Stadium, and the game will be played in Indiana this year.
Prediction
Each of the last three games in Notre Dame Stadium ended in one possession scores. So, expect a close game in this one. However, Notre Dame should be able to pull his one out in the fourth quarter. The home crowd will help, and their talent will prove to be slightly superior in this game.
Stanford 24
Notre Dame 27
If this game were played last season, the Hokies would have a puncher’s chance. However, it’s 2018, and they lost six players on defense to the NFL. They lost them in the worst positions for this matchup too. They were linebackers and members of the secondary — key spots against a mobile quarterback.
With the running ability of Brandon Wimbush — and hopefully improved accuracy — they will be able to carve up the Virginia Tech defense. The offense has been nothing short of a disappointment since the arrival of Justin Fuente as head coach, and the Notre Dame defense will take advantage of that.
Expect this running game to take hold in this game. They will take advantage of a weakened second level of the Hokies defense by running, running, and more running.
Prediction
When you look at a box score, you can usually tell who won the game by various stats. One key stat is time of possession. With a combination of a weakened linebacker corps and secondary, expect the Fighting Irish to play keep away in this game and dominate the time of possession battle. They will win the game handily due to that.
Notre Dame 31
Virginia Tech 10
When you see a team like Pitt, you wonder why Notre Dame doesn’t join the ACC in football. (The reason of course remaining a football independent makes more money.) However, if they were to join the ACC in football, they’d get to face Pitt more regularly.
In the last 21 meetings, the Irish have dominated the series. They’ve won 16 of those meetings by an average margin of victory of two touchdowns (aggregate score: ND 702, Pitt 403). Even though three of the last four Notre Dame wins were by less than seven points, the last win in 2015 was decided by 12. Football isn’t played on paper, but it’s a complete mismatch on paper.
Prediction
This will be reminiscent of many Notre Dame-Pitt games. It will not be one to watch if you’re looking for excitement on a Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame wants to prove they belong in the College Football Playoff, and the only way to do that is with style points.
Expect this game to be over by the fourth quarter, but unlike previous games, Kelly won’t take his players out in the fourth quarter of a blowout, because he wants them to be ready after the Bye for the rough schedule ahead.
Pittsburgh 20
Notre Dame 42
The Fighting Irish head into their relatively late week off with a 7-0 record. They haven’t headed into their Bye Week this late into the season undefeated under Brian Kelly. So, it’s a refreshing start. However, when you look ahead, the road isn’t exactly paved in blue and gold.
Their season ends on a path that they have to be well prepared for. It’s going to be a tough path. They have three tough games in their final five to end the season (and yes I am including Navy in those tough games.)
Notre Dame wants to be a contender for the national title, and they will have to navigate the end of their schedule carefully. The season ends in Los Angeles, and that game may determine whether the Fighting Irish make it to either the Orange or Cotton Bowl or one of the New Year’s Six bowls as a consolation.
In the end, if Kelly wants to lead a team to the national title for the first time in his career, he will have to win most of these games. Even this late in the season, a loss to Navy, Florida State, or USC wouldn’t completely devastate their chances at a title, depending on how bad the loss is. They do, however, have to beat Northwestern and Syracuse, otherwise, their CFP chances go up in smoke.
At one time, this was a date Notre Dame fans would circle on the calendar as a win. However, that 43-game winning streak is a thing of the past. Ever since Ken Niumatalolo took over the helm of the United States Naval Academy, they’ve given Notre Dame fits. In the Kelly era, they are 4-1 (6-1 if you count the vacated wins). However the one win for Navy was two years ago, and last year was a one-possession ballgame.
Teams at the service academies are typically smaller than the their opponents. As a result, they have to win with pure athleticism. It can give teams fits, as they rarely see the triple option, and Navy utilizes it to perfection. Navy has been in their conference championship game twice since joining the American Athletic Conference. So, they’re no slouch. Don’t let last season’s record fool you.
Prediction
This game is going to come down to discipline for Notre Dame. Defending the triple option is about sticking to your assignment, that’s all. It’s hard to do with so many moving parts. However, Notre Dame will have just enough discipline to eek out a victory in San Diego against the Naval Academy.
Notre Dame 27
Navy 24
There was a time where you could circle Northwestern on your calendar and mark it as a W in the summer. However, that’s no longer the case. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has turned Northwestern into an ascending program and a place where good players want to go to play. Their quarterback Clayton Thorson is on the radar for NFL scouts and projected to be a first round pick in 2019.
That being said, this still is a must-win for Notre Dame. They cannot expect to be in consideration for the College Football Playoff if they lose to Northwestern, but they also don’t have to blow them out either to gain the style points.
This game is going to be a tough one for Notre Dame. Some might even say that the Wildcats have the better quarterback in this game, and the game is in Evanston.
Prediction
In order to win this game, Notre Dame will have to play keep away. They will have to play ball control and use their running game to their advantage. It will have to be a relatively low-scoring affair, because a shootout won’t work against this Northwestern squad. Muck it up and win.
Notre Dame 20
Northwestern 14
Deondre Francois is looking to bounce back off a devastating season in 2017. During the opening game against Alabama he injured his patella tendon, and the damage required surgery, ending his season.
Right now, Francois is a far superior quarterback, given his accuracy. That said, Wimbush is the better athlete. So, if Wimbush can correct some of his issues, it may be a closer matchup.
There could be as many as three players in this game looking to boost their Heisman reputations, especially if both teams come in undefeated. Like the aforementioned Francois and Wimbush, Florida State running back Cam Akers is one of the nation’s frontrunners going into the season for the award. The winner — or at least the one who goes to New York — could come out of this game.
Prediction
Unlike the Northwestern game, Notre Dame doesn’t have to muck it up to win here. This game is going to be one many football fans love because it’ll be a high scoring affair. Even though both teams have good running games, they have backs who can break big runs and lead to quick scores.
This game is going to come down to whether or not Wimbush has made enough strides to outduel Francois in a shootout. Ultimately, though, part of it has to be the home crowd favoring Notre Dame, and that could be a deciding factor as well. Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, the crowd will go home unhappy as Notre Dame will take their first loss of the season.
Florida State 38
Notre Dame 35
Despite the loss to Florida State, the Fighting Irish are still in the CFP hunt. They just have to win their final two games to get in. They control their own destiny. There’s not a better place to keep a championship run alive than “The House that Jeter Built.”
The Shamrock Series returns, and this time they’re heading to the Bronx. Even though Notre Dame fans are everywhere — similar to Yankees fans — this game is essentially a home game for Syracuse given that Yankee stadium is nearly 450 miles closer to Syracuse than it is to Notre Dame. There’s no doubt Syracuse fans will make the trip to New York City to give their team an advantage. With all that said this is a yet another ACC mismatch for Notre Dame.
Prediction
There are two words that come to mind in this game, clinic and blowout. After losing to Florida State, the Irish will have to show something to the committee. They will have to show some bounce-back after a devastating close loss. Handily defeating a team they’re supposed to is the way to do it, and they will. It won’t even be a contest, and Syracuse will make the trek back up north having been soundly defeated.
Syracuse 13
Notre Dame 38
In the battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh, USC and Notre Dame meet for the 90h time in 2018. The home team has won the last five games in this series. However the last time that Notre Dame was in the top-five and traveled to Los Angeles, in 2012, they beat the Trojans, and that was the last road win in the series. So something has to give if they’re in the top-five and battling for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
With a lot of roster turnover, especially at quarterback, don’t expect the Trojans to be in the race for the College Football Playoff, and since this has no bearing on the Pac-12 South title, it would only be about keeping a rival out, and that motivation is enough for the USC players.
Prediction
This will be a hard-fought close game. However, in the end, the Trojans won’t be able to overcome their losses from 2017. The very slight talent edge that Notre Dame has will be the difference in this game. Notre Dame will pull this game out late in the fourth quarter, when the talent edge finally takes its toll on USC.
Notre Dame 35
USC 31
Can the Irish do enough to make the College Football Playoff?
Now we wait! With conference title games the week before the selection, it likely won’t be a matter of if the Fighting Irish get into the College Football Playoff — with an 11-1 record — but what seed they’ll be.
The Big Ten and SEC champs will likely have one loss or be undefeated. So, that leaves two spots up for grabs. Notre Dame wouldn’t be able to leapfrog over the Big Ten or SEC champ with one loss. So, the best they can hope for in a No. 3 seed in the CFP.
Georgia will win the SEC, and in a shocking turn of events, Michigan will stun everyone and win the Big Ten. In the end, the four teams that qualify for the CFP will be as follows:
1. Georgia (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Florida State (12-1)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Notre Dame being independent will hurt their seeding. Since they don’t have another game to play to prove themselves against a quality opponent, they will have to settle for a No. 4 ranking. Also, a head-to-head loss to Florida State means the Seminoles get the nod ahead of Notre Dame. Notre Dame does make it to the National Semifinals for the first time, and they will have a shot at the national championship.
College Football Playoff Semifinal vs. Georgia: Orange Bowl
Notre Dame played Georgia last year, and Georgia was one of the best teams in the country in 2017. In fact, they won the SEC title game and earned a bid into the College Football Playoff. Despite playing their worst game of the season offensively, Notre Dame lost by the slimmest of margins 20-19. Yes, that game was at Notre Dame Stadium, but it was still a close loss to a superior team despite everything going against them.
Fast forward to December 29, and Georgia no longer has Sony Michel, nor can we expect Notre Dame to play that poorly. The Fighting Irish still have a good rushing attack and a solid defense. IN the end, the 2017 matchup came down to how poorly Notre Dame played on offense. Georgia can’t expect them to have one of their worst games again. So, they have to be at their best.
Prediction
Say what you will about Notre Dame’s past, but this team has proven itself — by this point — to belong, even against strong SEC team. The Irish will learn from their mistakes in 2017, and turn things around in a close battle with Georgia and earn a trip to Levi’s Stadium to play for their first national title since 1988.
Notre Dame 27
Georgia 24
National Championship Game
In 2012, the Fighting Irish made it to the BCS National Championship Game. They were thoroughly outmatched by Alabama and lost 42-14. Now it’s a different time. It’s going to be a rematch from a regular season matchup. Florida State was their only defeat, and they will meet again for the national title.
In their only major bowl appearance against each other, the Seminoles won the 1996 Orange Bowl following the 1995 regular season in comeback fashion, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-26. The Fighting Irish also lost the Champs Sports Bowl to the Seminoles in 2011 which puts their bowl record at 0-2 against the Seminoles all-time.
The Irish have a lot of motivation going into this game, having lost a hard-fought battle at home to the Seminoles back in November. This one will be far from home for both teams in Santa Clara, CA, though.
Early on, both quarterbacks will begin to press, sensing the pressure of the moment. However, both will settle down after the teams trade punts. Ultimately it will turn into a shootout, much like the affair in November.
Next: Preseason Top 25 following spring practices
The difference in this game is that Notre Dame will have the ball last, and they will convert a score to win as time expires, and slightly more than 30 years to the day of their last national title victory, they will celebrate their 12th national title in school history.
Notre Dame 41
Florida State 38