UCF Football: Can Knights repeat undefeated season?

Scott Frost left UCF football to coach at his alma mater. Josh Heupel takes over for Frost. Can Heupel keep the Knights undefeated streak going in Orlando in 2018?

In 2017, the UCF Knights were America’s Cinderella story. From the ashes of their 0-12 season just two years earlier, the Knights rolled up an 11-0 regular season record. Then they won a rematch against Memphis for the AAC championship, earning the Group of Five’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl.

Then they took down SEC West champion Auburn in the Peach Bowl. The victory was no fluke, as Tigers quarterback Jarrett Stidham threw for 331 yards in defeat. Where UCF excelled was in keeping running back Kerryon Johnson in check. Following a similar script that allowed Georgia to win the SEC championship, UCF bottled up Johnson and held him to fewer yards per carry than the Bulldogs.

Along the way, the Knights ended the 2017-2018 season as the only undefeated team left in the FBS. Both Georgia and Alabama, the two finalists in the College Football Playoff, lost to the same Auburn team that UCF took down in Atlanta. That offered some justification for UCF to engage in the time-honored tradition of claiming a national championship. And in reality, the claim by the Knights is far stronger than many that have historically been made by paper champions.

Now, though, Scott Frost has left to take the head coaching job at Nebraska. In steps Josh Heupel, the former Oklahoma quarterback, who gets his first chance as a head coach after more than a decade as an assistant. Heupel has plenty of talent to keep things humming in Orlando in 2018. Let’s look at the Knights offense and defense before assessing the UCF schedule and seeing how long they can keep the winning ways going.

Offense

Last year, the Knights boasted the top scoring offense in the country. Nine of the 11 starters from the unit that put up 48.2 points per game return for the 2018 campaign. That bodes well for Heupel, who will serve as his own offensive coordinator in 2018. Heupel and his position coaches will have no problem maintaining continuity on the field even as they try to up the pace even further.

Adrian Killins Jr. returns as UCF’s key running back in 2018. So too do all of the receiving corps except Tre’Quan Smith. The loss of Smith should be easily mitigated by more targets for receivers like Dredrick Snelson and Marlon Williams and an increased role for hybrid runner/receiver Otis Anderson. This year’s offense is populated with a veteran group of players that have developed together over the past several years.

That extends to an offensive line that ranked fifth nationally in sacks allowed last year. The line should have another strong season as a unit. Five starters return from last year, boasting 79 starts between them. And the new staff fortified the line by adding Parker Boudreaux, a guard from local Bishop Moore Catholic who originally committed to Notre Dame, and four-star tackle Trevor Elbert from the junior-college ranks.

Focusing on McKenzie Milton

The catalyst for how far UCF goes in 2018, though, will undoubtedly be the same catalyst that piloted the team to so much success in 2017. McKenzie Milton’s progression at quarterback was the key to the Knights’ undefeated run, and he could be looking at a potential Heisman run if he continues his progression in 2018.

Last year, Milton did a little of everything. The sophomore ranked second nationally behind Heisman winner Baker Mayfield in passing efficiency. Milton also ranked fourth in the FBS in passing touchdowns, seventh in passing yards, and ninth in yards per game through the air. But he also took on teams with his legs, finishing second behind Killins in rushing yards in 2017 and adding another eight scores on the ground.

Milton has the potential to realize the goal Quinton Flowers tried to achieve last season — becoming a Heisman threat from one of Florida’s Group of Five schools. As long as the junior adjusts quickly to any tweaks Heupel introduces to the offense, UCF could have another dominant season thanks to Milton’s arm and legs.

Defense

While the offense should function at least as well as it did last season, the UCF defense could experience some drop-off in 2018. Five of the Knights’ starting 11 defense in 2017 have moved on from Orlando. That leaves some holes all over the field that Heupel and defensive coordinator Randy Shannon will look to plug as quickly as possible.

The secondary will need to replace Mike Hughes, who had a huge impact at cornerback in his one year with the Knights. Originally a North Carolina recruit, Hughes landed with UCF after a junior-college stint and electrified the defensive backfield. Hughes finished in a tie with free safety Kyle Gibson for the team lead in interceptions, and his early departure also puts a hole in special teams.

Shannon must also find replacements for defensive ends Tony Guerad and Jamiyus Pittman. Guerad and Pittman combined for 6.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last year, and it will fall to players like Brendon Hayes and Dedrion Bacote-Sweat to replicate that productivity on the edges.

Focusing on the linebackers

The biggest losses, though, came in the linebacking corps. Two of the three starters from last year’s unit are now in the NFL. Chequan Burkett was a redshirt senior with 82 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, and an interception returned for a 45-yard touchdown. His loss alone would be tough to deal with, but Burkett isn’t even the biggest loss in the unit.

That honor falls to Shaquem Griffin, the disruptive force at the second level who dramatically impacted both the passing and running attacks of opponents. Griffin joined his brother Shaquill as a member of the Seahawks after Seattle selected the linebacker in the fifth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Griffin earned the draft pick after a year where he had two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, a fumble recovery touchdown, an interception, seven sacks, and 13.5 tackles for loss.

Losing that kind of productivity, between Burkett and Griffin, will be the hardest thing for UCF to manage in 2018. Shannon and Heupel have their work cut out identifying the right fits to step in, though players like Titus Davis and  Pat Jasinski have plenty of veteran experience to take over leadership in the linebacking corps.

2018 UCF Schedule and Predictions

2018 looks like another prime opportunity to run the schedule for UCF. Opening the season on Thursday night at Connecticut, the Knights get a conference game out of the way as their warm-up for tougher tests later in the year. The home opener against South Carolina State the following week offers a chance to tweak things further ahead of the big tests.

The trip to North Carolina will set the tone for the year. Win in Chapel Hill and UCF could be staring at another unbeaten run and a genuine threat to the College Football Playoff. Six days later, a Friday-night showdown with defending C-USA champion Florida Atlantic will determine which Sunshine State school will threaten for a New Year’s Six berth. Then Pitt comes to Orlando as UCF gets a second test against Power Five competition.

Leading up to their bye week, SMU comes to Florida to face the Knights in a tough conference test. Then UCF travels to face Memphis in a rematch of last year’s AAC championship game. East Carolina hosts the Knights on the third weekend of October, before the bye week reprieve concludes the month.

Home games against Temple, Navy, and Cincinnati offer a chance to warm back up out of the bye. Once again, the division could come down to the Black Friday battle in the War on I-4. UCF travels to Tampa this year to face South Florida, and once again that game could decide the division title.

What’s next for UCF?

The temptation will be there for UCF to begin looking ahead to their prime opportunities against North Carolina and Pitt. But the first order of business is the trip to East Hartford to face UConn on the gridiron. The Knights cannot take this test lightly, even if the Civil ConFLiCT never really became a thing outside Bob Diaco’s imagination. A loss in Connecticut would snap UCF’s undefeated run and end a shot at the New Year’s Six before it could really even start.

Prediction: 12-0 (8-0 AAC)

This year’s battle for the Group of Five’s berth in a New Year’s Six game will probably come down to fine details. Boise State and the Knights could be on a collision course to make the College Football Playoff selection committee’s job as difficult as possible. Josh Heupel lucked into the best possible situation to start his head coaching career. Look for UCF to extend its nation-leading 13-game winning streak to 25 games by the end of the regular season.

Then it all comes down to whoever UCF faces in the AAC championship game. Win that game, and it would be hard to leave out a Knights team on a 26-game winning streak. The bigger question of whether they would merit a top-four spot would depend on how well UNC, Pitt, and FAU fare in 2018. Strength of schedule could ultimately be all that separates Boise State from UCF in 2018.