A 5-step roadmap for how McKenzie Milton wins the 2018 Heisman Trophy

5. Milton will have to lead the country in passing efficiency

Last year, McKenzie Milton finished behind only Heisman winner Bakery Mayfield when it came to the FBS passing efficiency rankings. This year, Milton will need to at least duplicate his efficiency figure if not surpass it to rank atop the category.

What would it take to make Milton actually viable as a Heisman candidate, though, in terms of his passing efficiency? Since 2000, there have been 15 quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy. Omitting Eric Crouch‘s triple-option bid, which skews the data in a way that does Milton no benefit, let’s look at the other 14 winners.

Of that group, the average passing efficiency was just over 170. But that will hardly cut it for a Group of Five quarterback hoping to make a serious Heisman run. A passing efficiency score of 180 or better would begin to put Milton into Heisman territory. Six of the previous 14 quarterback winners posted passing efficiency ratings over 180.

If he can get close to 190 points, he would be nearly a lock to make it happen. Only Mayfield has ever previously pulled off the feat, and he won the Heisman in a landslide. Of course, UCF is not Oklahoma, and the AAC is not the Big 12. But finishing atop the passing efficiency rankings a year after coming second to Mayfield in the category is a great start.