Week 4 is here and with it brings more conference games. Which college football teams need to be wary of the dreaded upset alert?
It is hard to believe, but we are already a quarter of the way through the college football regular season. Thankfully with full conference slates starting there are plenty of upcoming games to satisfy our college football fixation.
Last week there were several upsets around college football. Out of the five upset alert picks last week, we managed to get two correct. LSU went to Auburn and squeaked by with a one-point victory. Florida State continued their woes at Syracuse, as the Orange dominated the Seminoles by 23 points.
Another week where we have some close picks with all the betting lines under 10 points according to Oddsshark. Nevertheless, some of the teams picked this week have not looked terribly impressive so far. They are ripe for being picked off for the first time this season. Some teams are looking to avoid being upset again. Let’s get to the upset picks for Week 4.
Notre Dame hits the road for the first time this season when they travel to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest. The Irish are an eight-point favorite over the Demon Deacons.
Notre Dame has been living on borrowed time since beating Michigan by a touchdown in their Week 1 match-up. They survived scares, winning by a combined 13 points over Ball State and Vanderbilt. Notre Dame’s issues lie with the offense. Their running game has not been stellar, they are only converting 36 percent of their third down attempts, and quarterback Brandon Wimbush has been underwhelming.
Wimbush threw for nearly 300 yards against Ball State, but he also threw three interceptions and zero touchdowns. Against Vanderbilt, he only threw for 122 yards but he did have a rushing touchdown. He must improve for the Irish to stay undefeated.
Wake Forest has a fantastic pass rush this season and Notre Dame is going to have trouble keeping the Deacs out of the backfield. Wake also sports a pretty balanced offense, averaging 36 points per game.
The Deacons had a couple extra days to prepare and are coming off a loss against Boston College. They are looking to get back in the win column. A big statement could be made by upsetting the Irish Saturday afternoon.
Boston College is 3-0 and is coming off a big road victory at Wake Forest. They are also ranked for the first time since 2008 and will face Purdue this Saturday. The Eagles are favored by seven points.
Boston College has been prolific on offense thus far, outscoring opponents 158-69 through the first three games. It is the first time in program history they have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games. They are tops in the ACC with scoring an average of 52.7 points per game.
On paper, it appears Boston College is going to blow a winless Purdue team out of the water. So why did we pick them to be on upset alert? Mainly because it would be extremely surprising to see Purdue lose a fourth straight home game. Purdue had a lot of promise under second-year coach Jeff Brohm and they still have a lot of talent.
The Boilermakers have done some good things but just cannot close the door in games. They have lost their first three by a combined eight points.
Boilermaker quarterback David Blough is starting to catch fire. He completed 71 percent of his passes for 572 yards and three scores in a losing effort against Missouri last week. Blough should now be the unquestioned starter.
Purdue will play desperate this week. Blough should give the Eagle secondary trouble and he will carry his team to their first win of the season.
BYU stunned Wisconsin in Madison last week, upending what the Badgers hoped to be a perfect season. The Badgers now face their first conference game of the season and it is a tough one against Iowa. Wisconsin is a six-point favorite on the road.
Badger running back Jonathan Taylor is a great talent, but the Cougars held him to his lowest output of the season last week, rushing for 117 yards and no scores. Now he faces an Iowa defense that is allowing only 42 rushing yards per game, ranking third in the nation.
While Taylor has been mostly good, quarterback Alex Hornibrook has mostly been average. He is completing 63 percent of his passes but has thrown only three touchdowns thus far and two interceptions. He now is facing a pass rush that has generated 12 sacks on the year. Hornibrook is simply a game manager, not the type of quarterback that can will a team to victory.
Iowa does not have a flashy offense but has enough to move the ball. They will rely on their defense to shut down Wisconsin.
Kinnick Stadium has been a house of horrors for ranked teams recently. Iowa upset Michigan in 2016, Ohio State in 2017, and came within the last play of the game from upsetting Penn State last year as well. Coincidentally this year’s Wisconsin match-up comes in Week 4 just like the Penn State game last year. With a victory over Wisconsin, Iowa will make a statement in the Big Ten West race.
Last time we saw Michigan State they were being upset by Herm Edwards’ Arizona State Sun Devils. After an off week, the Spartans hit the road again against Big Ten foe Indiana with the Old Brass Spittoon on the line. The Spartans are five-point favorites.
The Spartans have a slew of problems. The offensive line has not been good and quarterback Brian Lewerke has been inconsistent and underwhelming in two games. The Spartans returned all starters in their secondary which was fantastic a season ago so expectations were high. Not so through two games, as they have allowed Utah State and Arizona State to chuck the ball all over the field.
The good news for the Spartans is that Indiana’s strength is their rushing attack which plays into the strength of the Spartan defense, stopping the run. Whichever team wins the battle of the trenches will win this game.
The Spartans have been a mess so far and have to be on the lookout for an undefeated Hoosier team at home. Don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers pull off the upset and if they do, the Spartans will fall out of the Top 25 polls.
A beleaguered USC team returns home after two straight road losses and scoring only 17 points. Somehow the Trojans are a four-point favorite against Washington State Friday night.
The Trojans were shutdown at Stanford two weeks ago. Last week their rushing attack was rendered completely useless against Texas, with the Longhorns dominating for the last three quarters of the game. If the Trojans can come up with anything resembling a rush offense, it would take some of the pressure off freshman quarterback JT Daniels.
The Trojan secondary is dealing with injuries, forcing youth and inexperience into starting roles. Washington State’s strength is their air raid attack. Transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew has been great so far, throwing for over 1200 yards and completing nearly 71 percent of his passes. Throw in his eight touchdowns and he’s off to a hot start. His favorite target so far has been sophomore receiver Davontavean Martin, who has 290 yards and three touchdowns.
This series has been dominated by USC over the years, but the Cougars have won two of the last three games including last year’s three-point upset of the then fifth-ranked Trojans. Expect another close one, but the Cougars pull off the small upset this year. USC will be staring at a 1-3 start and 0-2 hole in Pac-12 play.