College Football Predictions 2018: Picks for the biggest games of Week 8
Mississippi State at LSU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Spread: LSU -7
This has the feel of a classic trap-game for LSU. They are coming off of back-to-back brutally physical games against Florida and Georgia, with one emotional win over the Bulldogs at home last week. Now they get to play an extremely physical Mississippi State team right before their bye week with their attention potentially already turning a bit to their massive showdown with Alabama after the bye.
After a pair of frustrating losses in a row to Kentucky and Florida, first year head coach Joe Moorhead went back to what made Mississippi State tough to beat last season: the power running of 230-pound senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. After Fitzgerald threw 32 passes against Kentucky and 26 against Florida, he only threw 17 against Auburn while running 28 times for 195 yards in the 23-9 victory.
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Mississippi State wore down an exhausted Auburn defense by dominating the time-of-possession, something they will undoubtedly attempt to replicate in Baton Rouge.
The Bulldogs boast one of the nation’s best defensive lines led by Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons, and will attempt to stop a potent LSU ground attack that racked up 275 yards against Georgia last week. If they can force Joe Burrow to have to throw to beat them, Mississippi State will have a great shot at pulling the upset in Death Valley.
For all the positive attention Burrow has gotten, he is still the 12th most efficient passer in the SEC and is completing just 53 percent of his passes this season.
If this game was in Starkville, I would be a lot more comfortable calling the upset. This should be a low scoring defensive slugfest, and I give LSU the slightest of edges at home.
Pick: LSU 16, Mississippi State 13