College Football Predictions 2018: Picks for the biggest games of Week 8

Ohio State at Purdue (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Spread: Ohio State -14

Ohio State’s boat has begun to take on a little bit of water despite their 7-0 record. The Buckeyes were anything but impressive in last week’s 30-14 win over Minnesota – they didn’t put the game completely away until Dwayne Haskins hit K.J. Hill for a 27-yard touchdown with 2:15 to play.

The problem for Ohio State has been defensively, where the Buckeyes rank 58th in the country in yards allowed. They allowed Minnesota, who ranks 103rd in offensive S&P+, to rack up nearly 400 yards of offense. Ohio State’s lackluster defensive numbers are in spite of the fact that they have only faced one offense this season that ranks in the offensive S&P+ top-50.

The Ohio State defense will get a stern test this week in West Lafayette against an explosive Purdue offense. After starting 0-3, losing all three by a combined eight points, the Boilermakers have responded with three straight wins by 14-plus points. Purdue has begun looking more like the seven or eight win team they were expected to be this season.

Senior quarterback David Blough took the reins from Elijah Sindelar in week three and hasn’t looked back since, going 3-1 as a starter with the only loss coming by three points to Missouri in a game where he threw for over 500 yards. Blough is the Big Ten’s second most efficient passer behind only Ohio State’s Haskins.

The Boilermakers have a lot of weapons for Blough to get the ball to, particularly explosive freshman Rondale Moore, who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Moore ranks fourth in the nation in all-purpose yards per game, and he figures to get a lot of opportunities to make plays against Ohio State.

This will almost certainly blow up in my face, but I’ve got a gut feeling that the Boilermakers are going to pull the upset on Saturday, further upsetting the balance of power in college football.

Pick: Purdue 41, Ohio State 38