College Football Predictions 2018: Picks for the biggest games of Week 9
No. 25 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Spread: Appalachian State -8.5
Appalachian State moved into the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history last week on the heels of their 27-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette with the only blemish on their resume being an overtime loss to Penn State on the road in the season opener. This is just the latest sign that the Mountaineers are a team to be reckoned with on the FBS level.
S&P+ loves App State, rating them out as the 12th best team in the country so far. They’re probably not quite that good, but they are a quality team that is in the thick of the New Year’s Six race in the group-of-five if UCF suffers a loss.
The problem is that they face a weak Sun Belt slate, but with every passing week their close call with Penn State looks less and less like a fluke and more indicative of the strength of this program.
Dual-threat quarterback Zac Thomas leads the way, and the Mountaineers are much more comfortable when using him as a change-of-pace thrower, instead leaning on their ground game. Sophomore running back Darrynton Evans stepped in for an injured Jalin Moore last week and made for a seamless transition, rushing for a career-high 183 yards in their win. He’ll likely be asked to shoulder the load again against a Georgia Southern side that gives up 148 yards-per-game on the ground.
Georgia Southern’s offense will provide a unique challenge for Appalachian State’s stout defense; Chad Lunsford has incorporated triple-option principles with a spread, making the Eagles all the more dangerous to stop. They average over 275 yards-per-game rushing, and will look to control the time-of-possession on Thursday night.
At 6-1, Georgia Southern has outplayed its ability so far this season, and are bowl eligible for just the second time in program history. This is despite the fact that they actually give up more yards-per-game than they gain, but they’ve been fortuitous in the turnover department, ranking in a tie for first with a +14 turnover margin.
A lot of that can be contributed to their quarterbacks, Shai Wells, ability to take care of the football and run the option seamlessly.
Even still, this looks like a tough challenge for a Georgia Southern squad that has gained five of their six wins over teams ranked sub-100 in S&P+.
They’ve been a nice story, but look for Appalachian State to flex its muscles in this battle for Sun Belt supremacy.
Pick: Appalachian State 31, Georgia Southern 20