Temple at No. 12 UCF (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Spread: UCF -10
Temple has already slayed an unbeaten AAC opponent, two weeks ago taking down Cincinnati in overtime to put the Bearcats’ hopes of earning the Group of 5 bid to the New Year’s Six in doubt. After starting 0-2, including a baffling loss to FCS Villanova, Temple has won five of their last six games, with their lone loss coming on the road to Boston College. The Owls are undefeated in AAC play and could throw the conference through a loop if they were able to knock off divisional rival UCF and take control of the AAC East.
UCF’s dreams extend past a second straight bid to the New Year’s Six. The Knights have been there and done that, and have set their sights on a much bigger prize: the college football playoff. UCF still faces an uphill climb to get there, with the same doubts cast upon them as from a year ago. To this point, they’ve faced the nation’s 125th toughest schedule according to Sagarin, but it gets tougher down the stretch run starting this week against Temple.
The schedule was the impetus for the committee’s decision to dock the Knights three spots from their AP poll ranking and place them 12th – behind two-loss Florida — in the initial rankings. UCF will almost certainly have a chip on their shoulders on Thursday night, which could be bad news for Temple.
UCF finishes the regular season at home against Cincinnati and then on the road in the War-on-I4 against USF. They also face a potential AAC Championship matchup against Houston, in a game that could be winner goes to the New Year’s Six.
First things first, though, and the Knights have their sights set on a good Temple team looking to crash the party.
This spread has gone down two points since it opened with the uncertainty of UCF QB’s McKenzie Milton’s status. Josh Heupel lists Milton as questionable ahead of Thursday’s matchup, and if he can’t go the Knights would once again turn to freshman Darriel Mack Jr. Mack started the last game and led UCF to a 37-10 win over East Carolina, but this is a big step-up in competition against a much stingier defense.
The loss of Milton would make UCF one-dimensional offensively as Heupel didn’t trust his freshman understudy to make a lot of throws down the field. He may not have a choice against an aggressive Owls defense that will sell out to stop the run. Temple’s defense is good at keeping things off-schedule and forcing passing downs, which could be tricky for UCF without Milton.
Even if Milton plays, I expect UCF to be in for a fight; this Temple team is legit having already beaten the likes of Maryland and Cincinnati. I think the Knights get a victory, but they’ll get all they can handle from Geoff Collins’ team.
Pick: UCF 31, Temple 24