Alabama Football: Who has best shot to dethrone the Crimson Tide?
UCF’s chances of climbing into the Top 4 took a big hit with the committee ranking them behind two-loss Florida at No. 12, a three spot drop from their ranking in the AP Poll this week. That’s six spots higher than they were ranked in the initial rankings last season, and right where they finished in the final committee rankings last year.
It’s obvious that the committee is penalizing UCF for poor strength-of-schedule, with the Knights ranking 120th in that department according to Sagarin. They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record, and the combined win-loss record of their opponents is 17-30.
A lot of the uproar is due to a perceived mistreatment of the Knights from last season, but going based off of strictly this season, UCF doesn’t have the resume yet. I think a strong argument could be made for any of the one-loss teams over UCF, but I do agree that two-loss Florida being above them seems ridiculous, although I do think Josh Heupel’s team would jump Florida if they won out with a few tough games remaining down the stretch of the season.
How they could win
UCF has the offensive firepower to keep pace in track-meets, and they do some things that could befuddle Nick Saban’s defense. With a healthy McKenzie Milton, the Knights are tough to stop offensively with his ability as a dual-threat player. The Knights rank sixth in total offense and fifth in scoring offense this season, and would probably be a little higher if Milton didn’t miss the last game.
I think Milton’s ability to make plays with his legs could keep the Tide off-balance and lead to some potentially big plays in the passing game. This Alabama defense isn’t as good in years past at stopping the run, particularly if teams can bounce to the outside. You should avoid the middle at all costs, because that’s where Quinnen Williams lives and he’s in the backfield nearly every play.
The Knights would look to use their speed around the edges to hit some big running plays that open up the back-end of the Alabama defense for some downfield shots.
Why they won’t
I don’t think last season’s UCF would have beaten last season’s Alabama, but that team would have had a better shot. While they are undefeated, this doesn’t feel like the same caliber of team from last year, and a big reason is the defensive struggles and lack of a pass rush without Shaquem Griffin.
UCF ranks 72nd in the country in total defense, allowing 395 yards-per-game, and they rank 82nd in sacks. Griffin gave them one of the most feared edge rushers in college football last season, and without him to be disruptive, the Tide would likely find holes throughout the UCF defense. The Knights have struggled mightily against the run, too, so they would likely have to commit extra help in the box to stop the run, which would leave them highly susceptible to big plays from the Alabama passing attack.
This all seems moot anyway as it seems unlikely that UCF will knock down the playoff door and disrupt the party with the committee’s opinion being so low on them. The only way it seems possible is if absolute chaos is unleashed in November, and even then it wouldn’t be too surprising for some two loss teams to get the nod over the Knights.