Alabama Football: Who has best shot to dethrone the Crimson Tide?
Washington State debuted at a surprising 8th in the first CFP rankings, up two spots from their ranking in the AP Poll. That puts the Cougars in firm position to not just make a Rose Bowl run, but potentially bust down the door of the playoff.
Mike Leach has worked wonders in Pullman this season, taking a team that many projected near the bottom of the conference and turning them into the PAC-12 favorite. That is thanks in large part to graduate transfer QB Gardner Minshew, who has injected himself into the Heisman race with his superb play in Leach’s air-raid.
If the Cougars can avoid losing to a team they shouldn’t over the next three weeks (Cal, Colorado, Arizona), then the Apple Cup against Washington will be played for a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game. If they win out, then Mike Leach could lift the Cougars into the playoff.
How they could win
Alabama doesn’t have a ton of experience going up against an air-raid offensive system like Washington State runs, and against a young secondary, and with time to prepare, Leach could expose some holes in the Tide’s defensive backfield and exploit them.
Leach is an innovative offensive coach, and if he can find a weakness in a defense he will exploit it time-and-time again. The last real experience Alabama had against a pass-happy offense like this was in the 2014 Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma, and the Sooners trounced the Tide 45-31 led by 348 passing yards from then Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight.
Washington State doesn’t boast the same level of talent that Oklahoma team did, and this is a far different Tide defense than then, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Washington State string together offensive success against Alabama.
Why they won’t
Washington State faces a tough enough climb to even get into the playoff with the teams in front of them, and Leach’s squads are known to lay an egg against an opponent they shouldn’t have many problems with, so it wouldn’t be too big of a shock to see Cal, Colorado, or Arizona knock off the Cougars in the next three weeks.
If they did make an improbable run to the playoffs and drew Alabama, even if they were able to put together some offensive success, it’s unlikely that they would be able to get off the field much defensively in a scenario that didn’t involve Alabama kicking an extra point.
The Cougars boast a Top-25 overall defense, but they haven’t faced an offense with anywhere close to the amount of firepower that Alabama possesses. I would expect them to have to commit an extra man in the box to stop Alabama’s Damien Harris and company from gouging them on the ground, which would lead to some single coverage or soft zones for Tua to exploit with the likes of Jerry Jeudy.