Alabama Football: Who has best shot to dethrone the Crimson Tide?
West Virginia had to be a little disappointed to check in below two-loss Florida in the initial CFP rankings this week, but the Mountaineers shouldn’t fret with a back-loaded schedule that gives them opportunities at some marquee wins down the stretch run of the season.
West Virginia still plays Texas and Oklahoma, and then a likely rematch with one of them in the Big 12 Championship game if they are able to win out. A road win over Texas Tech in October represents their best win to date, but the toughest games remain in front of Dana Holgorsen’s squad.
They’ll get their first shot at a statement win this weekend in Austin as they take on Texas. Don’t be surprised to see a solid jump for them if they are able to take down the Longhorns.
How they could win
Much like Washington State, West Virginia has the passing offense that could provide some problems for the youthful Alabama secondary. Even more so than the Cougars, West Virginia has big receivers like David Sills that can win jump balls against the taller Alabama corners, which could lead to some big plays for the Mountaineers.
Holgorsen went to the Leach air-raid school, and he has a QB in Will Grier that executes it perfectly. Grier has keyed a Mountaineers offense that ranks ninth in the nation in passing offense at 331.3 yards per game, and has averaged just under 40 points per game.
Alabama ranks 33rd in the nation against the pass, and without Trevon Diggs they’ve had to rely on freshman Patrick Surtain and JUCO transfer Saivion Smith to fill the void. Both are capable, but both have a lack of experience that could prove costly against Grier and a veteran group of big receivers.
Why they won’t
Along with some tough sledding to even make it to the playoff, the Mountaineers have only faced one defense this season that ranks in the Top 75 of S&P+. That was against Iowa State, and the Cyclones harassed Will Grier and the West Virginia offense all day, befuddling Holgorsen and company.
West Virginia managed just 152 yards of total offense and one offensive touchdown in a 30-14 rout in Ames. The Mountaineers haven’t taken good care of Grier up front, allowing 2.71 sacks-per-game, which is sub-100 in the country. That could be really bad news against a disruptive Alabama front seven.
The Tide ranks eighth in the country, averaging 3.25 sacks-per-game, and are the second best team at creating havoc plays, which are tackles-for-loss, forced fumbles, and passes defended. Against a weak West Virginia offensive line, the likes of Quinnen Williams, Isaiah Buggs, and Christian Miller should be able to get home and put Grier onto the turf.