Ole Miss Football: 5 Reasons Rebels will win 2018 Egg Bowl vs Mississippi State

2. Nick Fitzgerald isn’t a sure-thing anymore

There is a reason even the most faithful Mississippi State fans were calling for backup quarterback Keytaon Thompson earlier this season. Starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has built up a tremendous amount of goodwill, enough to keep him the starter from wire to wire, but that hasn’t made him a better passer overnight.

Whether it’s a scheme fit or the rest of the SEC catching up, Fitzgerald has been, at best, mortal this season. At his worst, he’s barely looked like a serviceable college quarterback. He’s thrown 12 of his 14 touchdown passes on the season at home and has thrown as many interceptions in SEC play (six) as touchdown passes. If you strip away games against Louisiana Tech and Arkansas (eight touchdowns, zero interceptions), Fitzgerald is averaging .75 passing touchdowns and 1.27 interceptions per game.

For the most part, Fitzgerald has been able to compensate with his legs. His 10 rushing touchdowns are tied for fifth most by any player in the SEC and most among quarterbacks. He’ll cash in once or twice on the ground, but that won’t fix his passing game. A one-dimensional offense doesn’t bode well for Mississippi State against Ole Miss’ offensive firepower.