Memphis at No. 8 UCF (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Spread: UCF -3
This is a rematch of last season’s thrilling AAC Championship Game that saw UCF outlast Memphis in double-overtime to secure the Group of 5’s bid to the New Year’s Six.
This line opened at UCF -7, and has quickly been bet down to just a field goal all because of the devastating injury which McKenzie Milton suffered in last weeks’ 38-10 win over USF. The injury to Milton is a massive blow to a UCF team that was potentially a couple of upsets away from getting into the College Football Playoff.
Now they must take down a fired-up Memphis squad without their best player. A loss by the Knights would knock them out of the New Year’s Six altogether, and open the door for another group-of-five champion, likely the winner of the Mountain West, to take their place. UCF won’t go down without a fight though, and they still have the talent to knock off Memphis and make a return trip to the New Year’s Six.
Memphis won their last four games to bounce back from a 1-3 start in conference play and capture the West division. The Tigers gave the Knights all they could handle earlier in the season, coming the closest to handing UCF their first loss. Memphis led by two touchdowns in the second half, but ultimately fell by a single point.
With no Milton, a lot of pressure will be placed on redshirt freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr., who started a game in October against East Carolina in relief of a hampered Milton. Memphis is no East Carolina, though, and the Tigers have the offensive firepower to put up a lot of points, which will force Mack to try and keep pace.
The onus will be on UCF’s defense to keep the scoring down, but they’ve struggled against the run all season long, and will be tasked with stopping the NCAA’s second leading rusher, and the new single season rushing leader in AAC history in Darrell Henderson. He racked up 199 yards in the first meeting against the Knights, and will be licking his chops to inflict damage again.
I don’t think Mack will be able to keep up if this game turns into a shootout. Expect a big game from Henderson as the Tigers unseat UCF from their perch atop the AAC.
Pick: Memphis 37, UCF 30