2018 College Football Playoff, bowl game predictions with confidence picks

NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide and head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers greet after the AllState Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 1, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide and head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers greet after the AllState Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 1, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl

UAB (10-3) vs Northern Illinois (8-5)

Boca Raton, Florida

December 18 – 7 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Buyer beware: as good of a story as UAB has been this season, I’m still not sold on how good they actually are as they took advantage of a woeful C-USA to capture the program’s first conference championship. That’s not to take away from that accomplishment, but I worry about how they stack up against programs outside of the C-USA, particularly a battle tested side like Northern Illinois.

The Huskies came back from the dead in the MAC Championship, coming from way behind to shock Buffalo and capture the conference crown. They were able to overcome the offensive ineptitude that cost them in late season defeats to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan.

This should be a slugfest with two strong defenses in action in Boca. UAB has struggled to find offense outside of RB Spencer Brown, and he’ll find the going tough against a Northern Illinois defense that ranks 14th in the nation in opposing rushing yards. Edge rusher Sutton Smith will make life especially tough for Brown and Blazers QB A.J. Erdely. Smith is one of the best players in the country that you’ve never heard of, racking up 24.5 tackles-for-loss and 15 sacks this season.

Look for Smith to make the big defensive play that ultimately swings this game in the Huskies’ favor, as Northern Illinois comes out on top in a low scoring affair, as tough as it is to bet against Bill Clark and the Blazers.

Pick: Northern Illinois 16, UAB 13

Confidence Points: 11