Boca Raton Bowl 2018: 5 Bold Predictions for UAB vs. Northern Illinois

3. Special Teams could be the X-Factor

In a game that should be dominated by defense, with both offenses finding the going tough, special teams play could prove to the difference. Which team will be able to make that play is anyone’s guess, as neither have made many big plays on special teams all season long.

UAB has a slight advantage, ranking 84th in special teams S&P+ while Northern Illinois comes in at 105th.

Field position is likely to play a major factor in this war of attrition, and both punters have struggled with consistency this season. Northern Illinois’ sophomore punter Matt Ference has the leg to boot it 50-60 yards, but the Huskies ranked just 65th in net punting this season.

Similarly, UAB freshman Kyle Greenwell has a big leg, but the Blazers haven’t been much better, ranking 60th in net punting.

Both have struggled in the kicking game as well. Senior Andrew Gantz for Northern Illinois has been perfect on extra points, but is just 11-of-16 on field goals, missing five of his 13 tries from 40+ yards out.

UAB wishes they were even that consistent in the kicking game this season, with junior kicker Nick Vogel going just 12-of-21 on his field goal attempts. Vogel has made just 2-of-11 kicks from 40+ yards out, while knocking down all 10 of his tries from less than 40 yards away. That makes it that much more important for the Blazers to get into the redzone.

Both teams have a punt return touchdown this season, and whichever team can spring a big play in the return game could also have a big impact on the outcome of the game.

I’d give Northern Illinois a slight edge in the kicking game, with Gantz showing at least some ability to hit from long distance, which could be important in a game where scoring opportunities are difficult to find.