4. The over hits with ease
Oklahoma and Georgia combined for 102 points in last season’s semifinal at the Rose Bowl, 90 of which came in regulation, and I expect something similar in the Orange Bowl this year.
According to oddshark.com, the consensus total as of this writing is 79.5, a hefty total and the highest in this season’s bowl games.
It’s not enough.
Oklahoma and Alabama are the two highest scoring teams in the country, respectively. The Sooners lead the nation at 49.5 points-per-game, and the Crimson Tide clock in at second at 47.9 points-per-game.
With two of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football history, and a pair of secondaries that have given up their share of big plays this season, there should be points aplenty in Miami as the Orange Bowl turns into a shootout.
It’s not an indignation of Alabama’s defense to suggest that Oklahoma is going to put up points, as foreign of a concept as that is for Tide fans; it’s just that the Sooners are historically good offensively, and will put up points regardless of the level of the opposing defense.
The best case scenario for Alabama’s defense is probably holding Oklahoma somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 points, meaning the Tide would need to only score 45 points to cover the total for the game. 45 points would be Oklahoma holding Alabama under their average points-per-game for the season – do you really expect this Sooners defense to be able to do that?
I don’t.
If you’re going to gamble on this game, I’d advise staying far away from the point-spread for either side, and putting your money on the over instead.