Reasons for and against successful 2019 season for Michigan State football

Reason for success: Favorable matchups

The non-conference schedule has more favorable matchups in 2019 in comparison to 2018.

For starters, opening up with Tulsa instead of Utah State is with out a doubt and better matchup to begin the season. Laugh all you want but playing Western Michigan as opposed to Central Michigan is a better matchup as the Chippewas are the only notable MAC team to come into Spartan Stadium and not only play Michigan State tough but actually beat them as they did in 2009 and going as far back at 1991-92.

The biggest break in 2019 will be playing Arizona State at home as opposed to their place. The Sun Devils, at least on paper, will not be as talented and experienced as they were in 2018. The best returning player on offense for Arizona State is their starting running back and the overall biggest strength of the Michigan State team is their run defense. The Spartans should easily start the season 3-0.

Having favorable home matchups will be an advantage for Michigan State in Big Ten play. Playing Indiana, Illinois and Maryland should give the Spartans with their non-conference slate six wins. Even though the game against Rutgers is away, it’s safe to assume that Michigan State wins that one and puts it at seven wins.

There are other favorable matchups in Big Ten play but they’re less of a guaranteed for a victory for the Spartans. The two to watch are at Wisconsin and Penn State at home.

Like Arizona State, the Badgers strength on offense will be their run game. Without a doubt, not only will the Spartans run defense be great again but it actually may even be better. To top it off, Wisconsin again will have uncertainty at the quarterback position making its offense one-dimensional again.

Penn State, who Michigan State surprised by beating the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley, loses its starting quarterback and running back from last season and are expected to take a step back.

The last time the Spartans lost in Madison, was in 2009. The last time they lost at home to Penn State was also in 2009. If they Spartans win those two games, which seems more likely than not, that puts them at nine wins.

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The two 50/50 matchups are road games versus Northwestern and Michigan. The bad news for Michigan State is that Michigan won two of of the last three times they played each other and Northwestern has beaten Michigan State the last three times they squared off against one another.

The good news is, for some strange and unexplained reason, the Spartans have played better on the road against the Wildcats and Michigan recently. Michigan State has won five out of the last six meeting between the two in Evanston with their only loss to Northwestern in those six meetings coming in overtime in 2017. The Spartans have also had recent success in Ann Arbor, winning four out of the last five meetings at the Big House against the Wolverines.

Best-case scenario, they win both of those games. The worst-case possibility is they split between the two. It’s unlikely they lose both of those games as long as Michigan State doesn’t suffer major injuries on offense and special teams.

The matchups lead to Michigan State winning at least nine or 10 games if it can stay healthy. The one game that the Spartans will likely lose is at Ohio State. Every other game on their schedule, gives them a decent chance of winning.