College Football 2019: Predictions for the biggest games of Week 9

Penn State at Michigan State (Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Spread: Penn State -7

This spread seems curiously low, and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Penn State suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s emotional home victory over Michigan.

Michigan State has won the last two meetings in this series, and the Nittany Lions haven’t won in East Lansing since 2009.

The Spartans are in desperate need of a victory as they come into this game at 4-3. While Brian Lewerke and the offense have seemingly improved in 2019, they’ve struggled mightily against the better defenses they’ve faced. In matchups against Arizona State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, Michigan State has managed a combined 17-points in the three defeats.

While the offense has produced against bad opponents, this hasn’t been your typical Spartans defense, either. They’ve been susceptible to getting carved up, as we’ve seen in their last two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Mark Dantonio’s team does have the benefit of coming off of a bye week and they’ll be getting a Penn State team fresh off of an emotional win over the Wolverines.

The numbers point toward a Penn State victory, but I’m not ignoring the Vegas alarms blaring in the distance like I did a week ago. This pick is solely based on the surprising spread, but give me Michigan State in an upset with a game-winning field goal as time expires.

Pick: Michigan State 23, Penn State 20