Group of Five Power Rankings, Week 14: Last chance for contenders

4. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-1/SUN BELT)

• LAST WEEK: won 35-13 vs. Texas State
• NEXT WEEK: Nov. 29 at Troy

Eliah Drinkwitz’s team might be left to rue that Halloween loss to Georgia Southern that blemished an otherwise perfect season. Had the the Mountaineers defeated the Eagles, they would headline the Group of Five race and be the front-runner to nab the New Year’s Six bid. But while they did lose, hope isn’t entirely lost in Boone. What would it actually take for Appalachian State to reach the Cotton Bowl this season?

First, Cincinnati needs to beat Memphis on Black Friday. That would would eliminate the Tigers from the race and put Navy into the AAC championship. Then, the next week, they need the Midshipmen to go to Nippert Stadium and upset the Bearcats. That would eliminate Cincinnati and put a two-loss Navy team (with a game still to play against Army) into the discussion.

Then they need Hawaii to go to the Smurf Turf and upset Boise State to claim the Mountain West crown. That it is the Rainbow Warriors rather than a two-loss San Diego State team that will be playing in the MWC championship is great for Appalachian State’s chances. Taking down the Broncos is prerequisite to Appalachian State hopes.

That would give the College Football Playoff selection committee the choice of a one-loss Appalachian State team with wins over North Carolina and South Carolina or a two-loss Navy team without a Power Five win or a four-loss Hawaii team that went 2-1 against the Pac-12 this year. If Boise State, Memphis, or Cincinnati is up for comparison, App State’s chances diminish greatly even with those ACC and SEC wins.